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Potential Implications Of The Pandemic On Medium Term Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Pakasa Bary

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Pandu Kuntoaji

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Dwi Febby Multiretno

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • IGP Wira Kusuma

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

Abstract

This study analyses the potential medium-term impact of the pandemic to productivity and macroeconomy. It simulates the impact of the pandemic on productivity, labor and macroeconomic dynamics. The simulation is carried out using simple variations of real business cycle models, with shock on consumption-leisure preference which are endogenously responded by technology. Simulation results are consistent with macroeconomic dynamics observed during the pandemic and therefore may imply medium term prospects. In addition, permanent application of technology to replace pandemic-related labour restrictions is superior for medium-term growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pakasa Bary & Pandu Kuntoaji & Dwi Febby Multiretno & IGP Wira Kusuma, 2025. "Potential Implications Of The Pandemic On Medium Term Productivity," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 28(1), pages 57-84, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:28:y:2025:i:1d:p:57-84
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2358
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Pandemic; COVID-19; General equilibrium; Digitalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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