IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/idn/journl/v28y2025i1dp57-84.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential Implications Of The Pandemic On Medium Term Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Pakasa Bary

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Pandu Kuntoaji

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Dwi Febby Multiretno

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • IGP Wira Kusuma

    (Bank Indonesia, Indonesia)

Abstract

This study analyses the potential medium-term impact of the pandemic to productivity and macroeconomy. It simulates the impact of the pandemic on productivity, labor and macroeconomic dynamics. The simulation is carried out using simple variations of real business cycle models, with shock on consumption-leisure preference which are endogenously responded by technology. Simulation results are consistent with macroeconomic dynamics observed during the pandemic and therefore may imply medium term prospects. In addition, permanent application of technology to replace pandemic-related labour restrictions is superior for medium-term growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pakasa Bary & Pandu Kuntoaji & Dwi Febby Multiretno & IGP Wira Kusuma, 2025. "Potential Implications Of The Pandemic On Medium Term Productivity," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 28(1), pages 57-84, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:28:y:2025:i:1d:p:57-84
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2358
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2358&context=bmeb
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2358?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
    3. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    4. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    5. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    6. Xin Li, 2021. "Asymmetric Impact of COVID-19 on China's Stock Market Volatility - Media Effect or Fact?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-6.
    7. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    8. Martin Borowiecki & Jon Pareliussen & Daniela Glocker & Eun Jung Kim & Michael Polder & Iryna Rud, 2021. "The impact of digitalisation on productivity: Firm-level evidence from the Netherlands," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1680, OECD Publishing.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "COVID-19 research outcomes: An agenda for future research," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 439-445.
    10. Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "A Note On The Implications Of Automation For Economic Growth And The Labor Share," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1294-1301, April.
    11. José María Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2023. "The Evolution of Work from Home," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 23-50, Fall.
    12. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Automation and Manufacturing Performance in a Developing Country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9653, The World Bank.
    13. Susan Sunila Sharma & Yezhou Sha, 2020. "Part A: Special Section on COVID-19 Research," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3551-3553, December.
    14. Pakasa Bary & Rani Setyodewanti, 2021. "Consumption-contagion dynamics during epidemic with voluntary social distancing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 696-701.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gianluca Benigno & Andrew Foerster & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci, 2025. "Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: An endogenous regime‐switching approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-47, January.
    2. Parantap Basu & Shesadri Banerjee, 2015. "Role of IST and TFP Shocks in Business Cycle Fluctuations: The Case of India," CEMAP Working Papers 2015_04, Durham University Business School.
    3. Ben Broadbent & Federico Di Pace & Thomas Drechsel & Richard Harrison & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. "The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 51, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    4. Behera, Harendra & Gunadi, Iman & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2023. "COVID-19 uncertainty, financial markets and monetary policy effects in case of two emerging Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 173-189.
    5. Saidul Islam, 2024. "Investment-specific technology shocks and business cycle: evidence from a sign restriction approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 249-283, June.
    6. Aydan Dogan, 2019. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and Emerging Market Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 202-220, October.
    7. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2017. "The price of imported capital and consumption fluctuations in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 67-81.
    8. Aydan Dogan, 2019. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and Emerging Market Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 202-220, October.
    9. Araújo, Eurilton, 2012. "Investment-specific shocks and real business cycles in emerging economies: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 671-678.
    10. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    11. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    13. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2013. "Quarterisation of National Income Accounts of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 9, pages 1-61.
    14. Castillo, Paul & Rojas, Youel, 2014. "Términos de intercambio y productividad total de factores: Evidencia empírica de los mercados emergentes de América latina," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 28, pages 27-46.
    15. Germaschewski, Yin & Horvath, Jaroslav & Rubini, Loris, 2024. "How important are trend shocks? The role of the debt elasticity of interest rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Pathirage, Kasun, 2023. "COVID-19 policy actions and inflation targeting in South Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Andrés Fernández, 2010. "“Tropical” Real Business Cycles? A Bayesian Exploration," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(61), pages 60-105.
    19. Lim, King Yoong & Liu, Chunping & Zhang, Shuonan, 2024. "Optimal central banking policies: Envisioning the post-digital yuan economy with loan prime rate-setting," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    20. Joshua Bernstein & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2020. "COVID-19: A View from the Labor Market," Working Papers 2010, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:28:y:2025:i:1d:p:57-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Lutzardo Tobing to update the entry or send us the correct address or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.