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The Fog of Numbers

Author

Listed:
  • Òscar Jordà
  • Noah Kouchekinia
  • Colton Merrill
  • Tatevik Sekhposyan

Abstract

In times of economic turbulence, revisions to GDP data can be sizable, which makes conducting economic policy in real time during a crisis more difficult. A simple model based on Okun’s law can help refine the advance data release of real GDP growth to provide an improved reading of economic activity in real time. Applying this to data from the Great Recession explains some of the massive GDP revisions at that time. This could provide a guide for possible revisions to GDP releases during the current coronavirus crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Òscar Jordà & Noah Kouchekinia & Colton Merrill & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "The Fog of Numbers," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(20), pages 1-5, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:88397
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    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2020-20.pdf
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Revisions to employment data during 2020 and 2021 : Reassessing labor market conditions after the 2020 recession
      by ? in FRED blog on 2022-01-24 14:00:00

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