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Integrated assessment of epidemic and economic dynamics

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver

Abstract

In this paper, a simple integrated model for the joint assessment of epidemic and economic dynamics is developed. The model can be used to discuss mitigation policies like shutdown and testing. Since epidemics cause output losses due to a reduced labor force, temporarily reducing economic activity in order to prevent future losses can be welfare enhancing. Mitigation policies help to keep the number of people requiring intensive medical care below the capacity of the health system. The optimal policy is a mixture of temporary partial shutdown and intensive testing and isolation of infectious persons for an extended period of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver, 2020. "Integrated assessment of epidemic and economic dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:42020
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/215895/1/1694465632.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    3. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    5. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    6. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    7. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dizioli, Allan & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2021. "Information and inequality in the time of a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Kenichi Kurita & Shunsuke Managi, 2022. "COVID-19 and Stigma: Evolution of Self-restraint Behavior," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 168-182, March.
    4. Yuya Katafuchi & Kenichi Kurita & Shunsuke Managi, 2021. "COVID-19 with Stigma: Theory and Evidence from Mobility Data," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-95, April.
    5. Katafuchi, Yuya & Kurita, Kenichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Self-restraint behavior under COVID-19 through stigma: Theory and evidence based on mobility data," MPRA Paper 102182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lucas Bretschger & Elise Grieg & Paul J. J. Welfens & Tian Xiong, 2020. "COVID-19 infections and fatalities developments: empirical evidence for OECD countries and newly industrialized economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 801-847, October.
    7. V. V. Chari & Rishabh Kirpalani & Christopher Phelan, 2021. "The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 1-14, October.
    8. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    9. Holtemöller, Oliver & Rieth, Malte, 2021. "Wirtschaftliche Mobilität dürfte nach Lockerung deutlich steigen – aber auch die Zahl der COVID-19-Fälle," IWH Policy Notes 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coronavirus; economic growth; epidemic modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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