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International Disease Epidemics and the Shadow Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Aziz Berdiev
  • Rajeev K. Goel
  • James W. Saunoris

Abstract

Adding to the emerging body of research related to the current coronavirus crisis, this paper studies the impact of disease epidemics on the worldwide prevalence of the shadow or the underground economy. The informal sector undermines compliance with government regulations and lowers tax collections. Our main hypothesis is that epidemics positively impacts the spread of the shadow economy. Using data on nearly 130 nations and nesting the empirical analysis in the broader literature on the drivers of the shadow sector, we find that both the incidence and the intensity of epidemics positively and significantly contribute to the spread of the underground sector. Numerically, a ten percent increase in the intensity of epidemics leads to an increase in the prevalence of the shadow economy by about 2.1 percent. These findings about the spillovers from epidemics have implications for economic policies in the current times of coronavirus.

Suggested Citation

  • Aziz Berdiev & Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris, 2020. "International Disease Epidemics and the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8425, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Macroeconomic

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy; epidemics; Covid-19; government; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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