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Chang-Jin Kim

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1999. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 317-334, August.

    Mentioned in:

    1. GDP at Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-11-27 19:59:51

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Myung-Jig, 1996. "Transient Fads and the Crash of '87," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 41-58, Jan.-Feb..

    Mentioned in:

    1. Transient fads and the crash of ′87 (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1996) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Jaeho Kim, 2013. "Bayesian Inference in Regime-Switching ARMA Models with Absorbing States: The Dynamics of the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate Under Structural Breaks," Discussion Paper Series 1306, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.

    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "The `Pile-up Problem' in Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Real GDP: Classical and Bayesian Perspectives," MPRA Paper 51118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kim, Jaeho, 2015. "Bayesian Inference in a Non-linear/Non-Gaussian Switching State Space Model: Regime-dependent Leverage Effect in the U.S. Stock Market," MPRA Paper 67153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Roberto Casarin & Domenico Sartore & Marco Tronzano, 2018. "A Bayesian Markov-Switching Correlation Model for Contagion Analysis on Exchange Rate Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 101-114, January.

  2. Kim, Chang-Jin & Manopimoke, Pym & Nelson, Charles, 2013. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 51356, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.
    2. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
    3. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Kim, Insu & Yie, Myung-Soo, 2016. "Trend inflation, firms' backward-looking behavior, and inflation gap persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 116-125.
    5. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Huang, Yu-Fan, 2015. "Time variation in U.S. monetary policy and credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 205-215.
    8. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "Has trend inflation shifted?: An empirical analysis with an equally-spaced regime-switching model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-83.
    9. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    11. Pym Manopimoke, 2012. "Hong Kong Inflation Dynamics: Trend and Cycle Relationships with the U.S. and China," Working Papers 232012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    13. Boldea, Otilia & Cornea-Madeira, Adriana & Hall, Alastair R., 2019. "Bootstrapping structural change tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 359-397.
    14. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    16. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2023. "Estimating trend inflation in a regime-switching Phillips curve," Discussion Paper Series 750, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Mengheng Li & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "Looking for the stars: Estimating the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 51, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    18. Sohei Kaihatsu & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Has Trend Inflation Shifted?: An Empirical Analysis with a Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    19. Aristidou, Chrystalleni, 2018. "The meta-Phillips Curve: Modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 367-379.
    20. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella, 2020. "Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    23. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    24. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    25. Aragón, Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2023. "Shock-based inference on the Phillips curve with the cost channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

  3. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "The `Pile-up Problem' in Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Real GDP: Classical and Bayesian Perspectives," MPRA Paper 51118, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    2. Gabor Katay & Lisa Kerdelhué & Matthieu Lequien, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working Papers 2020-11, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    3. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Ólafur Sindri Helgason & Stefán Thórarinsson, 2016. "Estimating the Natural Interest Rate for Iceland: An Exploratory Study," Economics wp74, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    4. Kurt F. Lewis & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2017. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : A Note on Transitory Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.

  4. Chang-Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2012. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Discussion Paper Series 1205, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.

    Cited by:

    1. Heejoon Han & Na Kyeong Lee, 2018. "Modeling the Dynamics between Stock Price and Dividend: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 213-235.
    2. Chang-Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2012. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Discussion Paper Series 1205, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    3. Chang, Yoosoon & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2014. "Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand with an Application to Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 334-347.
    4. Yoosoon Chang & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park & Sungkeun Park, 2014. "Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand," Working Papers 1409, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel, 2018. "Size-corrected inference in fiscal policy reaction functions: a three country assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 391-416, September.
    6. Kaihua Deng & Chang-Jin Kim, 2015. "Predicting Stock Returns — The Information Content Of Predictors Across Horizons," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel & Fang Xu, 2016. "Local Trends in Price‐to‐Dividend Ratios—Assessment, Predictive Value, and Determinants," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1655-1690, December.

  5. Eo, Yunjong & Kim, Chang-Jin, 2012. "Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Post-War Booms or Recessions All Alike?," Working Papers 2012-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    2. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2020. "Why are Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of US real GDP so different?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1339-1354, March.
    3. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    5. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2014. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," Working Papers e066, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    6. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric R. Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9165, CESifo.
    7. Luciano Campos & Danilo Leiva-León & Steven Zapata- Álvarez, 2022. "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks," Borradores de Economia 1201, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
    9. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    11. Jiang, Yu, 2020. "Identification of business cycles and the Great Moderation in the post-war U.S. economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2014. "Liquidity, Trends, and the Great Recession," 2014 Meeting Papers 751, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Hikaru Saijo, 2013. "The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 016, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Kapinos, Pavel & Kishor, N. Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Dynamic comovement among banks, systemic risk, and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Bram van Os & Dick van Dijk, 2020. "Accelerating Peak Dating in a Dynamic Factor Markov-Switching Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-057/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Dec 2020.
    17. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    18. Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Dong Heon, 2019. "New dynamics of consumption and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-59.
    19. Romain Aumond & Julien Royer, 2024. "Improving the robustness of Markov-switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility," Working Papers 2024-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    20. GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo A. & JINNAI, Ryo & 陣内, 了, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Trends, and the Great Recession," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-14, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    21. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    22. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2019. "Business Cycles Across Space and Time," Working Papers 2019-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 05 May 2021.
    23. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    24. Bełej Mirosław & Kulesza Sławomir, 2012. "Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 61-72, January.
    25. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis," MNB Working Papers 2020/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    26. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.
    27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  6. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.

    Cited by:

    1. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    2. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Nemla Ali & Coskun Akdeniz, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Countries: Is there an Augmented Nonlinear Taylor Rule?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5965, CESifo.
    4. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    5. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2014. "Can Monetary Policy Cause the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle?," Discussion Paper Series 1404, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    6. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
    7. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Assadi, Marzieh, 2017. "The Implication of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions for the Price Levels: the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Revisited," MPRA Paper 84851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
    10. Thanh, Su Dinh & Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Doytch, Nadia, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of U.S. monetary policy on the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China: A Markov switching ARDL model approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    11. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2018. "Monetary policy rules and the equity risk premium: Evidence from the US experience," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 287-299, October.
    12. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2022. "Tracking a central banker's preference: A nonparametric regression approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 291-307, January.
    13. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2020. "Reading a central banker's preference: A non parametric regression approach," Discussion Paper Series 2007, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    14. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.

  7. Chang-Jin Kim & Yunmi Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 2008. "Pricing Stock Market Volatility: Does It Matter Whether the Volatility is Related to the Business Cycle?," Working Papers UWEC-2007-29, University of Washington, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Stanislav Bozhkov & Habin Lee & Uthayasankar Sivarajah & Stella Despoudi & Monomita Nandy, 2020. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of stock returns: the role of mean-reverting idiosyncratic volatility," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 419-452, November.
    2. Bua, Giovanna & Trecroci, Carmine, 2016. "International Equity Markets Interdependence: Bigger Shocks or Contagion in the 21st Century?," MPRA Paper 74771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chen, Na & Jin, Xiu, 2020. "Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Zhang, Wei & Zhou, Zhong-Qiang & Xiong, Xiong, 2019. "Behavioral heterogeneity and excess stock price volatility in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 348-354.
    5. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Working Papers 2013-28, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Cho, Jaeho & Yoo, Byoung Hark, 2011. "The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 246-252.
    7. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
    8. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Working Papers hal-04141047, HAL.
    9. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2019. "A unified framework jointly explaining business conditions, stock returns, volatility and “volatility feedback news” effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-14, April.

  8. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Working Paper series 06_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2007. "Testing the Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/02, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    4. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2010. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries," Working Papers wpdea1007, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    5. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    6. Fan, Longzhen & Yu, Yihong & Zhang, Chu, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of China's monetary policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 358-371, June.
    7. Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Is Monetary Policy in the New EU Member States Asymmetric?," Working Papers 2011/05, Czech National Bank.
    8. Best, Gabriela, 2017. "Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1957-1995, December.
    9. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    10. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Inflation and China's monetary policy reaction function: 2002-2013," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 159-170, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Sudarshan Kumar, 2020. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: inference on complex lead–lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 33-54, April.
    12. Jin, Hui & Jorgenson, Dale W., 2010. "Econometric modeling of technical change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 205-219, August.
    13. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    14. Beyer, Andreas & Gaspar, Vítor & Gerberding, Christina & Issing, Otmar, 2009. "Opting out of the great inflation: German monetary policy after the breakdown of Bretton Woods," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability and a Monetary Model with Time-varying Cointegration Coefficients," Discussion Paper Series 1302, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    16. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy: 2000 - 2007," NBER Working Papers 22693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Meryem Duygun & Levent Kutlu & Robin C. Sickles, 2016. "Measuring productivity and efficiency: a Kalman filter approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 155-167, December.
    19. Yoann Potiron & Per Mykland, 2016. "Local Parametric Estimation in High Frequency Data," Papers 1603.05700, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    20. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2017. "China's evolving monetary policy rule: from inflation-accommodating to anti-inflation policy," BIS Working Papers 641, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    22. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    23. Jiang, Chun & Jian, Na & Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Purchasing power parity and real exchange rate in Central Eastern European countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 349-358.
    24. Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2009. "The Phillips curve and the Italian lira, 1861-1998," Working Papers 0908, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    25. Kuper, Gerard & Veurink, Jan Hessel, 2014. "Central bank independence and political pressure in the Greenspan era," Research Report 14020-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    26. Vipul Bhatt & Amr Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor, 2017. "The Dynamic Behaviour of Implicit Inflation Targets for ‘Inflation Targeting Lite’ Economies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 67-88, March.
    27. Jacek Suda & Anastasia Zervou, 2016. "International Great Inflation and Common Monetary Policy," Working Papers 20160513_001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    28. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2014. "Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1591-1626, December.
    29. Partouche, H., 2007. "Time-Varying Coefficients in a GMM Framework: Estimation of a Forward Looking Taylor Rule for the Federal Reserve," Working papers 177, Banque de France.
    30. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Jin, Hui & Slesnick, Daniel T. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "An Econometric Approach to General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1133-1212, Elsevier.
    31. Kishor, N. Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik A., 2013. "The time-varying response of foreign stock markets to U.S. monetary policy surprises: Evidence from the Federal funds futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
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    34. Yanbin Chen & Zhen Huo, 2009. "A Conjecture of Chinese Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence from Survey Data, Markov Regime Switching, and Drifting Coefficients," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 111-153, May.
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    37. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    38. Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2009. "Wage Bargaining Coordination and the Phillips Curve in Italy," Working Papers 0901, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    39. Lavan Mahadeva & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2012. "What determines the sensitivity of the real exchange rate in Colombia to a terms of trade shock?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 161-176, April.
    40. Debasish Roy & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2020. "Trend of Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate in Australian Economy: Time Varying Parameter Model Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(3), pages 427-437, September.
    41. Edilean Silva Bejarano Aragón & Gabriela Medeiros, 2015. "Monetary policy in Brazil: evidence of a reaction function with time-varying parameters and endogenous regressors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 557-575, March.
    42. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is monetary policy forward-looking in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 4-14.
    43. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2022. "Cheap Talk in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 661-691, September.
    44. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2006. "Monetary policy regime shifts: new evidence from time-varying interest rate rules," Working Papers 0602, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    45. Kutlu, Levent, 2010. "Battese-coelli estimator with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 79-81, November.
    46. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    47. Chen, Bin, 2015. "Modeling and testing smooth structural changes with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 196-215.
    48. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    49. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    50. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2013. "Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 28-53, October.
    51. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 584-593.
    52. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    53. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    54. Ronald Henry Lange, 2018. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Canada: A Time-Varying Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(6), pages 42-51, November.
    55. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 913-930, June.
    56. Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Sheields, 2011. "The Meta Taylor Rule," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1131, The University of Melbourne.
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    58. Bernd Kempa, 2018. "Taylor Rule Reaction Coefficients And Real Exchange Rate Persistence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 64-73, January.
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  9. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change," Working Papers 2004-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2007. "Technology Shocks, Statistical Models, and The Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 3589, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  10. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2018. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," European Economy - Discussion Papers 075, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beverridge Nelson Decomposition With Markov Switching," CAMA Working Papers 2006-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    4. Zeynep Senyuz, 2011. "Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
    5. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
    6. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022. "The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    8. Richard G. Anderson & Marcelle Chauvet & Barry Jones, 2015. "Nonlinear Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 228-254, February.
    9. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    10. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.

  11. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2004. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Working Papers 2003-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeetendra P. Aryal & Arun Khatri‐Chhetri & Tek B. Sapkota & Dil B. Rahut & Olaf Erenstein, 2020. "Adoption and economic impacts of laser land leveling in the irrigated rice‐wheat system in Haryana, India using endogenous switching regression," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(3), pages 255-273, August.
    2. Carter, Andrew V & Steigerwald, Douglas G, 2010. "Testing for Regime Switching: A Comment," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5079q9dc, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    3. Wang, Anbang & He, Ke & Zhang, Junbiao & Zeng, Yangmei, 2021. "Green Production Technologies and Technical Efficiency of Rice Farmers in China: A Case Study of Straw-Derived Biochar," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315026, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2012. "The effects of the subprime crisis on the Latin American financial markets: an empirical assessment," Post-Print hal-01411539, HAL.
    5. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    6. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A view to the long-run dynamic relationship between crude oil and the major asset classes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 286-299.
    7. Heejoon Han & Na Kyeong Lee, 2018. "Modeling the Dynamics between Stock Price and Dividend: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 213-235.
    8. Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Oil-gold nexus: Evidence from regime switching-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Ruijun Bu & Jie Cheng & Fredj Jawadi, 2022. "A latent‐factor‐driven endogenous regime‐switching non‐Gaussian model: Evidence from simulation and application," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3881-3896, October.
    10. Lichard, Tomáš & Hanousek, Jan & Filer, Randall K., 2012. "Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation," IZA Discussion Papers 6901, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach," AMSE Working Papers 1344, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Sep 2013.
    12. Marie Bessec, 2019. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed-frequency data," Post-Print hal-02181552, HAL.
    13. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Baik, Hyeoncheol & Han, Sumin & Joo, Sunghoon & Lee, Kangbok, 2022. "A bank's optimal capital ratio: A time-varying parameter model to the partial adjustment framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    16. Judex Hyppolite, 2017. "Alternative approaches for econometric modeling of panel data using mixture distributions," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, December.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khan, Asad ul Islam & Mubarak, Muhammad Shujaat, 2023. "Roling-window bounds testing approach to analyze the relationship between oil prices and metal prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 388-395.
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    19. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    20. Samet Gunay & Kerem Kaskaloglu & Shahnawaz Muhammed, 2021. "Bitcoin and Fiat Currency Interactions: Surprising Results from Asian Giants," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, June.
    21. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Idier, J., 2011. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the market for collateral: The case of the French bond market," Working papers 339, Banque de France.
    22. Yoosoon Chang & Junior Maih & Fei Tan, 2018. "State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching," Working Papers No 9/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    23. Houda Rharrabti Zaid, 2015. "Transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux Pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    24. Marjan Petreski, 2010. "An Overhaul of a Doctrine: Has Inflation Targeting Opened a New Era in Developing-country Peggers?," FIW Working Paper series 057, FIW.
    25. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    27. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    28. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    29. Jinho Bae, 2011. "Does knowing the volatility states affect the market risk premium?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-94, February.
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    31. Woraphon Yamaka & Xuefeng Zhang & Paravee Maneejuk, 2021. "Analyzing the Influence of Transportations on Chinese Inbound Tourism: Markov Switching Penalized Regression Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-23, March.
    32. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse, 2014. "Discriminating between fractional integration and spurious long memory," CREATES Research Papers 2014-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    33. Kris Boudt & Jon Danielsson & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2012. "Regime switches in the volatility and correlation of financial institutions," Working Paper Research 227, National Bank of Belgium.
    34. Jong Hee Park, 2010. "Structural Change in U.S. Presidents' Use of Force," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 766-782, July.
    35. Yao, Haixiang & Chen, Ping & Li, Xun, 2016. "Multi-period defined contribution pension funds investment management with regime-switching and mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 103-113.
    36. Satoshi Kabe & Yuichiro Kanazawa, 2014. "Estimating the Markov-switching almost ideal demand systems: a Bayesian approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1193-1220, December.
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    38. Kirstin Hubrich & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2022. "The transmission of financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: An endogenous regime switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    39. Ruijun Bu & Jie Cheng & Kaddour Hadri, 2014. "Reducible Diffusions with Time-Varying Transformations with Application to Short-Term Interest Rates," Economics Working Papers 14-01, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    40. Stéphane Lhuissier, 2019. "Bayesian Inference for Markov-switching Skewed Autoregressive Models," Working papers 726, Banque de France.
    41. Xin Wei, 2020. "Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    42. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2015. "The Role of Financial Depth on The Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," EcoMod2015 8285, EcoMod.
    43. Chang Jin Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime And Monetary Policy Independence In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 155-170, May.
    44. Houda Rharrabti, 2015. "Transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux Pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale," Working Papers hal-04141380, HAL.
    45. Cardoso de Mendonça, Mário Jorge, 2013. "O Crédito Imobiliário no Brasil e sua Relação com a Política Monetária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    46. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
    47. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Post-Print hal-01447865, HAL.
    48. Yoosoon Chang & Fei Tan & Xin Wei, 2018. "State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    49. Qian, Hang, 2011. "Bayesian Portfolio Selection in a Markov Switching Gaussian Mixture Model," MPRA Paper 35561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. George Kapetanios, 2004. "Testing for Exogeneity in Nonlinear Threshold Models," Working Papers 515, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    51. Marcel Aloy & Gilles de Truchis & Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2014. "Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets," AMSE Working Papers 1402, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Mar 2014.
    52. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    53. Marshall S. Jiang & Jie Jiao & Zhouyu Lin & Jun Xia, 2021. "Learning through observation or through acquisition? Innovation performance as an outcome of internal and external knowledge combination," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 35-63, March.
    54. Andrea Beccarini, 2019. "Testing for the omission of relevant variables and regime-switching misspecification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 775-796, March.
    55. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Gilles Dufrénot & Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo Sousa, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy reaction functions: evidence from the US," Post-Print hal-03101417, HAL.
    56. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.
    57. Hiroyuki Okawa, 2023. "Markov-Regime Switches in Oil Markets: The Fear Factor Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, January.
    58. Anna Czapkiewicz & Pawel Jamer & Joanna Landmesser, 2018. "Effects of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Financial Markets Interrelations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 268-293, July.
    59. Hao, Shiming, 2021. "True structure change, spurious treatment effect? A novel approach to disentangle treatment effects from structure changes," MPRA Paper 108679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    61. Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Hurley, Jason & Eshragh, Ali & Fahimnia, Behnam, 2020. "Demand forecasting in the presence of systematic events: Cases in capturing sales promotions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    62. Keddad, Benjamin & Schalck, Christophe, 2020. "Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 356-375.
    63. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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    94. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Assessing Different Drivers of the GreatModeration in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0025, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    95. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    96. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.
    97. Sean D. Campbell, 2004. "Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    98. Yi-Chi Chen & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 897-921, December.
    99. Nathan Perry & Nathaniel Cline, 2016. "What caused the great inflation moderation in the US? A post-Keynesian view," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 475-502, October.
    100. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.
    101. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2005. "Has the Business Cycle Changed in Japan? A Bayesian Analysis Based on a Markov-Switching Model with Multiple Change-Points," MPRA Paper 93865, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  13. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    2. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    4. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    6. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    7. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
    8. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    9. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Post-Print halshs-00846501, HAL.
    10. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    11. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2019. "Dornsbush revisited from an asymmetrical perspective: Evidence from G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Erudite Working Paper 2019-22, Erudite.
    12. Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti & Fernando Tohmé, 2021. "Markov Chains, Eigenvalues and the Stabilityof Economic Growth Processes," Working Papers 88, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    13. Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta & Giovanni Bonaccolto, 2015. "The US Real GNP is Trend-Stationary After All," Working Papers 201581, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," PSE Working Papers hal-02908680, HAL.
    16. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    17. Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
    18. Thomas A. Garrett & Howard J. Wall, 2010. "Personal-bankruptcy cycles," Working Papers 2010-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2016. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
    21. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    22. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
    23. Frédérique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Post-Print hal-01515613, HAL.
    24. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Mar), pages 145-154.
    25. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Kiel Policy Brief 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    26. Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.
    27. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers of BETA 2021-33, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    28. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 1989, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    29. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    30. Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    31. Lathania Brown & Robert T Greenbaum, 2017. "The role of industrial diversity in economic resilience: An empirical examination across 35 years," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1347-1366, May.
    32. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "Monetary policy flexibility, risk management, and financial disruptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 242-246, June.
    33. Bradley Michael D. & Jansen Dennis W., 2018. "Nonlinear evidence on the existence of jobless recoveries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    34. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    35. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries," Working Papers 2007-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    37. Marchese, Malvina, 2010. "Time series models of GDP: a reappraisal," MPRA Paper 36389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "The European Way out of Recession," Post-Print hal-02980626, HAL.
    39. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    40. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    41. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662.
    42. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 266, Society for Computational Economics.
    43. Gonzalo Castañeda & Luis Castro Peñarrieta, 2022. "A Customized Machine Learning Algorithm for Discovering the Shapes of Recovery: Was the Global Financial Crisis Different?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 69-99, March.
    44. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft: Tiefpunkt der Produktion erreicht," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    45. Valerie Cerra & Ugo Panizza & Sweta C. Saxena, 2013. "International Evidence On Recovery From Recessions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 424-439, April.
    46. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
    47. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2016. "A Note On Banking And Housing Crises And The Strength Of Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1924-1933, October.
    48. López-Herrera, Francisco & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2012. "Is There a Relationship between the Mexican and the US Real Business Cycles during 1930-2010?," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Espinosa-Ramírez, Rafael Salvador (ed.), Research Issues Economic Relations, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 145-160, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    49. Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "The dynamics of business investment following banking crises and normal recessions," Kiel Working Papers 1996, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    50. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    51. James Morley, 2018. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(306), pages 338-340, September.
    52. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    53. Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi & Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Do large recessions reduce output permanently?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 516-519.
    54. Gross, Marco & Binder, Michael, 2013. "Regime-switching global vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 1569, European Central Bank.
    55. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 47873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    56. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
    57. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2017. "Rethinking monetary policy after the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 252-274.
    58. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring economic slack in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 35-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    59. Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013. "Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
    60. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2017. "Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in Regime Switching Econometric Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1049, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    61. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    62. Keun Yeong Lee, 2023. "The synchronization between Korea's and Japan's business cycles," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 435-465, December.
    63. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    64. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2018. "Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 267-282.
    65. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    66. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    67. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    68. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
    69. López-Herrera, Francisco & Ortiz-Arango, Francisco & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Modelado de la volatilidad del Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores con cambios markovianos de régimen," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Crecimiento y Desarrollo Económico en México, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 153-164, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    70. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A steady-state approach to trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Working Papers 2004-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    71. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    72. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.
    73. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
    74. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez, 2007. "Depressions in the Colombian economic growth during the twentieth century: a Markov switching regime model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 803-808.
    75. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    76. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
    77. Mile Bosnjak, 2017. "Structural Change In Croatian Real Gdp Growth Rates," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 26(1), pages 205-218, june.
    78. Yin, Ming, 2015. "Estimating Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive model with Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm: A parallel GPU implementation," MPRA Paper 88111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    79. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    80. J. W. Nevile & P. Kriesler, 2011. "Why Keynesian Policy was More Successful in the Fifties and Sixties than in the Last Twenty Years," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, May.
    81. Sheida Teimouri & Taggert J Brooks, 2015. "Output Recovery After Currency Crises," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 75-102, March.
    82. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    83. Rajendra N. Paramanik & Avishek Bhandari & Bandi Kamaiah, 2022. "Financial cycle, business cycle, and policy uncertainty in India: An empirical investigation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 825-837, July.
    84. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    85. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    86. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    87. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    88. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring Economic Slack: A Forecast-Based Approach with Applications to Economies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Working Papers 451, Bank for International Settlements.
    89. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.
    90. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

  14. Chang-Jin Kim & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Independence in East Asia," Finance Working Papers 21765, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Sammo & Kim, Soyoung & Wang, Yunjong & Yoon, Deok Ryong, 2003. "Exchange Rate and Output Dynamics Between Japan and Korea," Discussion Paper Series 26297, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.

  15. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Has the G7 business cycle become more synchronized ?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 782, Econometric Society.
    2. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Oil and the G7 business cycle : Friedman's Plucking Markov Switching Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 773, Econometric Society.

  16. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0011, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Nelson Areal & Maria Cortez & Florinda Silva, 2013. "The conditional performance of US mutual funds over different market regimes: do different types of ethical screens matter?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 397-429, December.
    2. Edward Bernard Bastiaan de Rivera y Rivera & Diógenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Leonardo Fernando Cruz Basso, 2012. "Present value model between prices and dividends with constant and time-varying expected returns: enterprise-level Brazilian stock market evidence from non-stationary panels," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 9(4), pages 51-86, October.
    3. Ashby, M. & Linton, O. B., 2022. "Do Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models Explain Own-history Predictability in Stock Market Returns?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2259, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Kiseok Nam & Joshua Krausz & Augustine C. Arize, 2014. "Revisiting the intertemporal risk-return relation: asymmetrical effect of unexpected volatility shocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2193-2203, December.
    5. Osman Kilic & Joseph M. Marks & Kiseok Nam, 2022. "Predictable asset price dynamics, risk-return tradeoff, and investor behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 749-791, August.
    6. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, "undated". "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    7. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
    8. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    9. Ashby, M. & Linton, O. B., 2022. "Do Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models Explain Own-history Predictability in Stock Market Returns?," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2226, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Turtle, H.J. & Zhang, Chengping, 2012. "Time-varying performance of international mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 334-348.
    11. Mili, Mehdi, 2019. "The impact of tradeoff between risk and return on mean reversion in sovereign CDS markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 187-200.
    12. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    13. Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.
    14. Michael William Ashby & Oliver Bruce Linton, 2024. "Do Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Explain the Dynamics of Stock Market Returns?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, February.

  17. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Is There a Structural Break in the Equity Premium?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0024, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.

  18. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
    2. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin & Kenc, Turalay & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    4. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    5. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    6. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    7. Zeynep Senyuz, 2011. "Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
    8. Whelan, Karl, 2006. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 5910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    10. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    11. Xiaoyu Zhang & Fanghui Pan, 2019. "The Dependence of China’s Monetary Policy Rules on Interest Rate Regimes: Empirical Analysis Based on a Pseudo Output Gap," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Stuart J. Fowler, 2005. "Income Inequality, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 184, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    14. Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    15. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    16. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, April.
    17. Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
    18. Yi Wen & Huabin Wu, 2011. "Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 187-206.
    19. Mateusz Pipień & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2019. "The heterogeneity of convergence in transition countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 75-105, January.
    20. Jan R. Kim & Keunsuk Chung, 2016. "House prices and business cycles: The case of the UK," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 131-146, June.
    21. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    23. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    24. Rothman Philip A, 2008. "Reconsideration of the Markov Chain Evidence on Unemployment Rate Asymmetry," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, September.
    25. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
    26. Mr. Dong He & Wei Liao & Tommy Wu, 2015. "Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2015/082, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2006. "Output fluctuations persistence: Do cyclical shocks matter?," Working Papers 2006_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    28. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
    29. Stuart J. Fowler, 2005. "Fiscal Spending Shocks and the Price of Investment: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Working Papers 200502, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    30. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
    31. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
    32. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    33. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    35. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen, 2013. "Beta-Product Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes for Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2013:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    36. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
    37. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    38. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
    39. Li, Wei & Xu, Wei & Zhao, Junfeng & Jin, Yanfei, 2007. "Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 702-711.
    40. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "Component structure for nonstationary time series: Application to benchmark oil prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 971-983, December.
    41. Yu-Lieh Huang & Chao-Hsi Huang, 2007. "The persistence of Taiwan's output fluctuations: an empirical study using innovation regime-switching model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2673-2679.
    42. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
    43. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Business cycle dynamics in a small open economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1153-1157.
    44. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?," IMF Working Papers 2005/029, International Monetary Fund.
    45. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    46. Driffill John & Kenc Turalay & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2009. "The Effects of Different Parameterizations of Markov-Switching in a CIR Model of Bond Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
    47. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

  19. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0023, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    2. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005. "Multifrequency News and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nelson Areal & Maria Cortez & Florinda Silva, 2013. "The conditional performance of US mutual funds over different market regimes: do different types of ethical screens matter?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 397-429, December.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Miguel Martin-Valmayor, 2021. "Persistence in the market risk premium: evidence across countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 413-427, July.
    5. Bae, Jinho & Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Why are stock returns and volatility negatively correlated?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-58, January.
    6. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2013. "Time‐Varying Risk–Return Trade‐off in the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 623-650, June.
    7. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2014. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," Working Paper series 31_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    8. Bua, Giovanna & Trecroci, Carmine, 2016. "International Equity Markets Interdependence: Bigger Shocks or Contagion in the 21st Century?," MPRA Paper 74771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Guidi, Francesco, 2008. "Volatility and Long Term Relations in Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Germany, Switzerland, and the UK," MPRA Paper 11535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ormos, Mihály & Timotity, Dusan, 2016. "Unravelling the asymmetric volatility puzzle: A novel explanation of volatility through anchoring," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 345-354.
    11. Bazgour Tarik & Heuchenne Cedric & Hübner Georges & Sougné Danielle, 2021. "How do volatility regimes affect the pricing of quality and liquidity in the stock market?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Ghysels, Eric & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Regime switches in the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-138.
    13. Jinho Bae, 2011. "Does knowing the volatility states affect the market risk premium?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-94, February.
    14. Azamat Abdymomunov, 2013. "Regime-switching measure of systemic financial stress," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 455-470, August.
    15. Ender Su & John Bilson, 2011. "Trading asymmetric trend and volatility by leverage trend GARCH in Taiwan stock index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3891-3905.
    16. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    17. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    18. Sei‐Wan Kim & Bong‐Soo Lee, 2008. "Stock Returns, Asymmetric Volatility, Risk Aversion, And Business Cycle: Some New Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 131-148, April.
    19. Sebastian Fossati, 2017. "Output Growth And Structural Reform In Latin America: Have Business Cycles Changed?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 62-75, January.
    20. Jia Liu & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Improving Markov switching models using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 297-318, April.
    21. Walentin Karl, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and the Equity Premium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, November.
    22. Amanjot Singh & Manjit Singh, 2016. "Risk–Return Relationship in BRIC Equity Markets: Evidence from Markov Regime Switching Model with Time-varying Transition Probabilities," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 15(2), pages 69-78, December.
    23. Grillini, Stefano & Ozkan, Aydin & Sharma, Abhijit & Al Janabi, Mazin A.M., 2019. "Pricing of time-varying illiquidity within the Eurozone: Evidence using a Markov switching liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 145-158.
    24. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2017. "Time-Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 458-478, May.
    25. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
    26. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
    27. Nauzer Balsara & Lin Zheng & Andrea Vidozzi & Luca Vidozzi, 2006. "Explaining momentum profits with an epidemic diffusion model," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 407-422, September.
    28. Hematizadeh, Roksana & Tajaddini, Reza & Hallahan, Terrence, 2022. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy using a state-dependent Markov model: Applications to international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    29. de Bondt, Gabe & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2010. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals," Working Paper Series 1190, European Central Bank.
    30. Shin-Yun Wang & Ming-Che Chuang & Shih-Kuei Lin & So-De Shyu, 2021. "Option pricing under stock market cycles with jump risks: evidence from the S&P 500 index," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 25-51, January.
    31. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    32. Arshanapalli, Bala & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Nelson, William, 2013. "The role of jump dynamics in the risk–return relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 212-218.
    33. Scott Mayfield, E., 2004. "Estimating the market risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 465-496, September.
    34. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Unfolded risk-return trade-offs and links to Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    35. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    36. Kent Wang & Yuqiang Guo, 2014. "Predictability of time-varying jump premiums: Evidence based on calibration," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(3), pages 369-394, August.
    37. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.
    38. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2019. "A unified framework jointly explaining business conditions, stock returns, volatility and “volatility feedback news” effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-14, April.
    39. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.
    40. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

  20. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0035, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    2. Hong Wang & Catherine S. Forbes & Jean-Pierre Fenech & John Vaz, 2018. "The determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad - new evidence," Papers 1804.07022, arXiv.org.
    3. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
    4. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models," Working Papers No 4/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Alzuabi, Raslan & Caglayan, Mustafa & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2020. "The Risk-Taking Channel in the US: A GVAR Approach," MPRA Paper 101391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    7. Panagiotis Petris & George Dotsis & Panayotis Alexakis, 2022. "Bubble tests in the London housing market: A borough level analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1044-1063, January.
    8. Wahyudi, Imam & Luxianto, Rizky & Iwani, Niken & Sulung, Liyu Adhika Sari, 2008. "Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modified Markov Regime Switching Model," MPRA Paper 59723, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2010.
    9. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalacio, 2016. "Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(1), March.
    10. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    11. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    12. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2007. "Business cycles and monetary policy asymmetry: An investigation using Markov-switching models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 297-306.
    13. Xiongfeng Pan & Jing Zhang & Changyu Li & Rong Quan & Bin Li, 2018. "Exploring Dynamic Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on China’s CO $$_{2}$$ 2 Emissions Using Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 1139-1151, December.
    14. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    15. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2008. "Bayesian analysis of a Markov switching temporal cointegration model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 257-274, March.
    16. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Zhiqiang HU & Yizhu WANG, 2013. "The IPO Cycles in China's A-share IPO Market: Detection Based on a Three Regimes Markov Switching Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 115-131, October.
    18. Rafael Ravnik, 2014. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP under Structural Changes," Working Papers 40, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    19. López-Herrera, Francisco & Ortiz-Arango, Francisco & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Modelado de la volatilidad del Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores con cambios markovianos de régimen," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Crecimiento y Desarrollo Económico en México, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 153-164, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    20. Geweke, John, 2007. "Interpretation and inference in mixture models: Simple MCMC works," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3529-3550, April.
    21. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    22. Raslan Alzuabi & Mustafa Caglayan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2021. "The risk‐taking channel in the United States: A GVAR approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5826-5849, October.

  21. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2006. "Output fluctuations persistence: Do cyclical shocks matter?," Working Papers 2006_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

  22. Kim, C-J & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations : Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Working Papers 97-06, University of Washington, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Giuseppe Diana, 2008. "Monetary policy in the presence of asymmetric wage indexation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8354, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    3. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    4. Gabriel Rodríguez, 2010. "Application of Three Non-Linear Econometric Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-25.
    5. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Has the G7 business cycle become more synchronized ?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 782, Econometric Society.
    6. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 125-139, March.
    7. Zeynep Senyuz, 2011. "Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
    8. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    9. Mingke Xie & Zhangxian Feng & Chenggu Li, 2022. "How Does Population Shrinkage Affect Economic Resilience? A Case Study of Resource-Based Cities in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    10. Toshiya Ishikawa, 2004. "Technology Diffusion and Business Cycle Asymmetry," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_016, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    11. Sumru Altug & Baris Tan & Gozde Gencer, 2011. "Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1101, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    12. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    13. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    14. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    15. James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0013, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    16. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    17. Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
    18. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1015-1045, April.
    19. Escobari, Diego & Sharma, Shahil, 2020. "Explaining the nonlinear response of stock markets to oil price shocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    20. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2004.
    21. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2016. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    22. Lopez-Salido, David & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Postwar Financial Crises and Economic Recoveries in the United States," MPRA Paper 98502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Medhioub, Imed, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553, décembre.
    24. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Daniel Rees, 2023. "The shape of business cycles: a cross-country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory," BIS Working Papers 1076, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    26. Frédérique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Post-Print hal-01515613, HAL.
    27. Herrerias, M.J. & Ordóñez, J., 2014. "If the United States sneezes, does the world need “pain-killers”?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 159-170.
    28. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2010. "The Impact of Asset Prices and their Information Value for Monetary Policy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(61), pages 134-167, August.
    29. Stéphane Dupraz & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2019. "A Plucking Model of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 26351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2011. "The Portuguese Public Finances and the Spanish Horse," GEMF Working Papers 2011-21, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    31. Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156.
    32. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    34. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 1989, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    35. Holtermann, Linus & Hundt, Christian, 2018. "Hierarchically structured determinants and phase-related patterns of economic resilience – An empirical case study for European regions," MPRA Paper 88359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger & Eric Zivot, 2001. "Markov regime switching and unit root tests," Working Papers 2001-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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    1. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
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    4. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
    5. Francis Ahking, 2003. "Efficient unit root tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-12.
    6. T. Berger & B. Kempa & -, 2010. "Taylor rules and the Canadian-US equilibrium exchange rate," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/643, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
    8. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2007. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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    10. Dhekra Azouzi & Rohit Vishal Kumar & Chaker Aloui, 2011. "Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 17-44, July.
    11. Pavlidis Efthymios G & Paya Ivan & Peel David A, 2010. "Specifying Smooth Transition Regression Models in the Presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-40, May.
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    35. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2006. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 667, European Central Bank.
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    1. Kim Chung-Han, 2000. "Balassa-Samuelson Theory and Predictability of the US/UK Real Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 101-121.
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    3. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    4. Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 96-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    5. Thiago Carlomagno Carlo & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2016. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4846-4860, October.
    6. Elwood, S. Kirk, 1998. "Is the persistence of shocks to output asymmetric?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 411-426, April.
    7. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Neil Dias Karunaratne & Ramprasad Bhar, 2010. "Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia," Discussion Papers Series 405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Shih‐Tang Hwu & Chang‐Jin Kim, 2019. "Estimating Trend Inflation Based on Unobserved Components Model: Is It Correlated with the Inflation Gap?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2305-2319, December.
    10. Daniel Barráez & Carolina Pagliacci, 2008. "Identificación de segmentos de precios en el mercado de fondos overnigth usando modelos ocultos de Markov," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 339-359, julio-sep.
    11. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2017. "Understanding the Relationship between Public and Private Commercial Real Estate Markets," MPRA Paper 83475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Testing for conditional heteroscedasticity in the components of inflation," Working Papers 0812, Banco de España.
    13. Bekiros, Stelios & Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 216-227.
    14. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Working Papers 0041, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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    16. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2010. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Inflation and Growth: Regime-Dependent Effects in the G7," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 145, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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    20. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2020. "Inflation, uncertainty, and labour market conditions in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(52), pages 5770-5782, November.
    21. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2016. "Non-Linear Phillips Curves with Inflation Regime-Switching," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2021. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Markov Regime Switching Heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(2), pages 181-200.
    23. Cathy W. S. Chen & Mike K. P. So & Edward M. H. Lin, 2009. "Volatility forecasting with double Markov switching GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 681-697.
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    25. Achour Maha & Trabelsi Abdelwahed, 2011. "Markov Switching and State-Space Approaches for Investigating the Link between Egyptian Inflation Level and Uncertainty," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 46-62, February.
    26. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2015. "Inflation targeting or Exchange Rate Targeting: Which Framework Supports The Goal of Price Stability in Emerging Market Economics?," Working Papers 2015025, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    27. Ho, Sin-Yu & Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Consumption and Exchange Rate Uncertainty: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 80096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Paul Castillo & Alberto Humala & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)," Working Papers 2007-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    29. Lorenzo, Fernando & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 1997. "Estimación de la volatilidad de la inflación en presencia de observaciones atípicas y heteroscedasticidad condicional," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3648, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    30. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
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    33. Burak Alparslan Eroğlu & J. Isaac Miller & Taner Yiğit, 2022. "Time-varying cointegration and the Kalman filter," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, January.
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    538. Djuric, Ivan & Goetz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas, 2011. "Influences Of The Governmental Market Interventions On Wheat Markets In Serbia During The Food Crisis 2007/2008," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114438, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    552. Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M. & Huang, Dengshi & Xu, Weiju, 2017. "Forecasting the realized volatility of the oil futures market: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 136-145.
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    555. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-Wei William Lin & Rau Hsiu-hua, 2005. "The performance of the Markov-switching model on business cycle identification revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 513-520.
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    567. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    568. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2010. "Regime switching correlation hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2728-2741, November.
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  26. Charles R. Nelson & Chang-Jin Kim, 1988. "The Time-Varying-Parameter Model as an Alternative to ARCH for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of Lucas Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    2. Marwan Elkhoury, 2005. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model of A Monetary Policy Rule for Switzerland. The Case of the Lucas and Friedman Hypothesis," IHEID Working Papers 01-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Vidal Alejandro, Pavel & Fundora Fernández, Annia, 2008. "Trade-growth relationship in Cuba: estimation using the Kalman filter," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    4. Christian Gayer & Bertrand Marc, 2018. "A ‘New Modesty’? Level Shifts in Survey Data and the Decreasing Trend of ‘Normal’ Growth," European Economy - Discussion Papers 083, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

Articles

  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2013. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 933-952, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Yunmi Kim & Chang‐Jin Kim, 2011. "Dealing with endogeneity in a time‐varying parameter model: joint estimation and two‐step estimation procedures," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 487-497, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Ruben Hipp, 2020. "On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity," Staff Working Papers 20-42, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jordi Paniagua & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2016. "Fiscal Sustainability in EMU contries: A continued Fiscal commitment?," Working Papers 1608, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    3. Baik, Hyeoncheol & Han, Sumin & Joo, Sunghoon & Lee, Kangbok, 2022. "A bank's optimal capital ratio: A time-varying parameter model to the partial adjustment framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Guhl, Daniel, 2019. "Addressing endogeneity in aggregate logit models with time-varying parameters for optimal retail-pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 684-698.
    5. Meryem Duygun & Levent Kutlu & Robin C. Sickles, 2016. "Measuring productivity and efficiency: a Kalman filter approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 155-167, December.
    6. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Post-Print hal-01447865, HAL.
    7. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik, 2017. "Estimating excess sensitivity and habit persistence in consumption using Greenbook forecast as an instrument," MPRA Paper 79748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kutlu, Levent, 2017. "A constrained state space approach for estimating firm efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 54-56.
    9. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik Marfatia, 2020. "Estimating Excess Sensitivity and Habit Persistence in Consumption Using Greenbook Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 257-284, April.
    10. Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi & Ruben Schoonackers, 2016. "On The Stability Of The Excess Sensitivity Of Aggregate Consumption Growth In The Us," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/917, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Duygun, Meryem & Kutlu, Levent & Sickles, Robin C., 2014. "Measuring Productivity and Efficiency: A Kalman," Working Papers 15-010, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    12. Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using time-varying fiscal reaction functions. An agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting," CQE Working Papers 10422, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    13. Naveedullah Mulaessa & Lefen Lin, 2021. "How Do Proactive Environmental Strategies Affect Green Innovation? The Moderating Role of Environmental Regulations and Firm Performance," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Malin Gardberg & Lorenzo (L.C.G.) Pozzi, 2018. "Consumption and wealth in the long run: an integrated unobserved component approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-046/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Sep 2018.
    15. Gießler, Stefan, 2020. "The evolution of monetary policy in Latin American economies: Responsiveness to inflation under different degrees of credibility," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

  4. Chang-Jin, Kim, 2010. "Dealing with Endogeneity in Regression Models with Dynamic Coefficients," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(3), pages 165-266, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Guhl, Daniel, 2019. "Addressing endogeneity in aggregate logit models with time-varying parameters for optimal retail-pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 684-698.
    2. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Working Paper 2019/5, Norges Bank.
    3. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Post-Print hal-01447865, HAL.

  5. Kang Kyu Ho & Kim Chang-Jin & Morley James, 2009. "Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2013. "Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 158-167.
    2. Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Working Paper Series 1230, European Central Bank.
    3. Gbaguidi DAVID, 2011. "Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 141-181.
    4. Myers, Robert J. & Johnson, Stanley R. & Helmar, Michael & Baumes, Harry, 2018. "Long-run and short-run relationships between oil prices, producer prices, and consumer prices: What can we learn from a permanent-transitory decomposition?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 175-190.
    5. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    6. Tillmann, Peter & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach," IMFS Working Paper Series 60, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Andrés Felipe Londono & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    8. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
    9. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Voges, Michelle, 2019. "Testing for breaks in the cointegrating relationship: On the stability of government bond markets' equilibrium," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-656, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    10. Eo, Yunjong, 2015. "Structural Changes in Inflation Dynamics: Multiple Breaks at Different Dates for Different Parameters," Working Papers 2015-18, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2015.
    11. Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining inflation-gap persistence by a time-varying Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 419-428.
    12. Pym Manopimoke & Vorada Limjaroenrat, 2016. "Trend Inflation Estimates for Thailand from Disaggregated Data," PIER Discussion Papers 51, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Robinson Kruse & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & Antonio E. Noriega, 2013. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," CREATES Research Papers 2013-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    15. Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014. "Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
    16. Michelle Chan & Silvia Matos, 2011. "Changes In Brazilian Inflationpersistence," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    17. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    18. Chang‐Jin Kim & Pym Manopimoke & Charles R. Nelson, 2014. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 253-266, March.
    19. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    20. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.
    22. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    23. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    24. Semih Emre Çekin & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2020. "Inflation volatility and inflation in the wake of the great recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1997-2015, October.
    25. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    26. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    27. Belkhouja, Mustapha & Mootamri, Imene, 2016. "Long memory and structural change in the G7 inflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 450-462.
    28. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    29. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Denis Belomestny & Ekaterina Krymova & Andrey Polbin, 2020. "Estimating TVP-VAR models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Papers 2008.00718, arXiv.org.
    31. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Eftimoiu, Raluca, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between core and headline inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-53.

  6. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2009. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables II: A two-step MLE procedure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 46-55, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    3. Zongxin Qian & Qian Luo, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Determinants of China’s Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spread," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 10-21, January.
    4. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    6. Manuel Gonzalez‐Astudillo, 2018. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 115-154, February.
    7. Yoosoon Chang & Fei Tan & Xin Wei, 2018. "State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    8. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2023. "Statistical analysis of Markov switching vector autoregression models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Hao, Shiming, 2021. "True structure change, spurious treatment effect? A novel approach to disentangle treatment effects from structure changes," MPRA Paper 108679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is monetary policy forward-looking in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 4-14.
    12. Andrei Sirchenko, 2019. "A regime-switching model for the federal funds rate target," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 19-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    13. Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Park, Joon Y., 2017. "A new approach to model regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 127-143.
    14. Blommestein, Hans & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Qian, Zongxin, 2016. "Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 10-21.
    15. de Bruijn, L.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2015. "Stochastic levels and duration dependence in US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    16. Wang Xia & Shang Yuhuang & Zheng Tingguo, 2014. "An extensive study on Markov switching models with endogenous regressors," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, September.
    17. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    18. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Blommestein, Hans J. & Qian, Zongxin, 2012. "Animal Spirits in the Euro Area Sovereign CDS Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Mile Bosnjak, 2017. "Structural Change In Croatian Real Gdp Growth Rates," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 26(1), pages 205-218, june.

  7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
    2. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.

  9. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2008. "Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-191.

    Cited by:

    1. Craighead, William D. & Tien, Pao-Lin, 2015. "Nominal shocks and real exchange rates: Evidence from two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-157.
    2. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2010. "Exchange-Rate Return Predictability and the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from Major Foreign Exchange Rates," Working Papers hal-00547722, HAL.
    4. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2011. "Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2011-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    5. Enzo Weber, 2011. "Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1579-1597, December.
    6. Rizwan Khalid & Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad & Bushra Naqvi, 2023. "Impact of capital account liberalization on stock market crashes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3700-3726, October.
    7. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    8. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    9. Marcel Förster, 2013. "The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201348, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    11. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.

  10. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    2. Chortareas, Georgios & Magonis, George & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2012. "The asymmetry of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the euro-area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 161-163.
    3. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Ebuh, Godday U., 2020. "A test for inflation persistence in Nigeria using fractional integration & fractional cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 225-237.
    4. Cornea, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2012. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2017. "Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(3), pages 427-449, September.
    6. Borek Vasicek, 2009. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp971, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0716, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 622-629, January.
    10. Wang Xia & Shang Yuhuang & Zheng Tingguo, 2014. "An extensive study on Markov switching models with endogenous regressors," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, September.
    11. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    12. Gomes, Orlando, 2012. "Thought experimentation and the Phillips curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 45-64.
    13. Lee, Dong Jin & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in multiple quantiles and the asymmetry of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-114.
    14. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

  11. Bae, Jinho & Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Why are stock returns and volatility negatively correlated?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-58, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 stock markets: A VAR quantile analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 32-46.
    3. Labidi, Chiaz & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Quantile dependence between developed and emerging stock markets aftermath of the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 179-211.
    4. Toni Ahnert & Christoph Bertsch, 2015. "A Wake-Up-Call Theory of Contagion," Staff Working Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    5. Kovačić, Zlatko, 2007. "Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 5319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ormos, Mihály & Timotity, Dusan, 2016. "Unravelling the asymmetric volatility puzzle: A novel explanation of volatility through anchoring," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 345-354.
    7. Jinho Bae, 2011. "Does knowing the volatility states affect the market risk premium?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-94, February.
    8. Alina Synyavska & Numan Ülkü, 2015. "'Leverage Effect' in country betas and volatilities?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 848-853, July.
    9. Yavas, Burhan F. & Malladi, Rama K., 2020. "Foreign direct investment and financial markets influences: Results from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Alexandra Horobet & Georgiana Vrinceanu & Consuela Popescu & Lucian Belascu, 2019. "Oil Price and Stock Prices of EU Financial Companies: Evidence from Panel Data Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Liu, Xinyi & Margaritis, Dimitris & Wang, Peiming, 2012. "Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-496.
    12. Mohd Aminul Islam, 2014. "A Study on the Performance of Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Models in Estimating Stock Returns Volatility," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 182-192.
    13. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2015. "Liquidity and stock returns: Evidence from international markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 73-97.
    14. Audrino, Francesco & Hu, Yujia, 2011. "Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect," Economics Working Paper Series 1138, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    15. Aymen Karoui & Iwan Meier, 2015. "Fund performance and subsequent risk: a study of mutual fund tournaments using holdings-based measures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(1), pages 1-20, February.
    16. Aboura, Sofiane & Wagner, Niklas, 2016. "Extreme asymmetric volatility: Stress and aggregate asset prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 47-59.
    17. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Risk spillover between the US and the remaining G7 stock markets using time-varying copulas with Markov switching: Evidence from over a century of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. Ignazio Angeloni, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Risk Taking," Working Papers 380, Bruegel.
    19. Giamouzi, Maria & Nomikos, Nikos K, 2021. "Identifying shipowners’ risk attitudes over gains and losses: Evidence from the dry bulk freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    20. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Examining Feedback, Momentum and Overreaction in National Equity Markets," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n18, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    21. Poshakwale, Sunil S. & Chandorkar, Pankaj & Agarwal, Vineet, 2019. "Implied volatility and the cross section of stock returns in the UK," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 271-286.
    22. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2014. "Testing for Leverage Effects in the Returns of US Equities," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14022r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2017.
    23. Markellos, Raphael N. & Psychoyios, Dimitris, 2018. "Interest rate volatility and risk management: Evidence from CBOE Treasury options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-202.
    24. N’dri Konan Léon, 2015. "Forecasting Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from the West African Regional Stock Market," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(6), pages 1-2.
    25. Kim, Sei-Wan & Lee, Bong-Soo & Kim, Young-Min, 2014. "Who mimics whom in the equity fund market? Evidence from the Korean equity fund market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 199-218.
    26. Neaime, Simon, 2012. "The global financial crisis, financial linkages and correlations in returns and volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 268-282.
    27. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012. "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 695-716.
    28. Engle, Robert & Mistry, Abhishek, 2014. "Priced risk and asymmetric volatility in the cross section of skewness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 135-144.
    29. Philippe Masset & Martin Wallmeier, 2010. "A High†Frequency Investigation of the Interaction between Volatility and DAX Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(3), pages 327-344, June.
    30. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    31. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    32. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
    33. Zheng, Dazhi & Li, Huimin & Zhu, Xiaowei, 2015. "Herding behavior in institutional investors: Evidence from China’s stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 32, pages 59-76.
    34. Chiang, Thomas C. & Li, Huimin & Zheng, Dazhi, 2015. "The intertemporal risk-return relationship: Evidence from international markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 156-180.
    35. Massaporn Cheuathonghua & Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Pattana Boonchoo & Jittima Tongurai, 2019. "Extreme spillovers of VIX fear index to international equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(1), pages 1-38, March.
    36. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.

  12. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2006. "Time-varying parameter models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 21-26, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2017. "Is Potential Output Growth Falling?," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2017_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2015. "The Transmission Mechanism In Good And Bad Times," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1237-1260, November.
    3. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2010. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries," Working Papers wpdea1007, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    4. Martin Mandler, 2009. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200947, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
    6. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    7. Jin, Hui & Jorgenson, Dale W., 2010. "Econometric modeling of technical change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 205-219, August.
    8. Guhl, Daniel, 2019. "Addressing endogeneity in aggregate logit models with time-varying parameters for optimal retail-pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 684-698.
    9. Meryem Duygun & Levent Kutlu & Robin C. Sickles, 2016. "Measuring productivity and efficiency: a Kalman filter approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 155-167, December.
    10. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    11. Burak Alparslan Eroğlu & J. Isaac Miller & Taner Yiğit, 2022. "Time-varying cointegration and the Kalman filter," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Jacek Suda & Anastasia Zervou, 2016. "International Great Inflation and Common Monetary Policy," Working Papers 20160513_001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    13. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Jin, Hui & Slesnick, Daniel T. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "An Econometric Approach to General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1133-1212, Elsevier.
    14. Teresa Sastre & Francesca Viani, 2014. "Countries’ safety and competitiveness, and the estimation of current account misalignments," Working Papers 1401, Banco de España.
    15. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik, 2017. "Estimating excess sensitivity and habit persistence in consumption using Greenbook forecast as an instrument," MPRA Paper 79748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Amr Sadek HOSNY, 2014. "Is Monetary Policy in Egypt Backward or Forward-Looking?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).
    17. Yanbin Chen & Zhen Huo, 2009. "A Conjecture of Chinese Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence from Survey Data, Markov Regime Switching, and Drifting Coefficients," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 111-153, May.
    18. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    20. Hematy , Maryam & Jalali-Naini , Ahmad R., 2015. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Iran: An Extended Kalman Filter Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(3), pages 29-48, July.
    21. Montezuma Dumangane & Nicoletta Rosati & Anna Volossovitch, 2009. "Departure from independence and stationarity in a handball match," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 723-741.
    22. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik Marfatia, 2020. "Estimating Excess Sensitivity and Habit Persistence in Consumption Using Greenbook Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 257-284, April.
    23. Edilean Silva Bejarano Aragón & Gabriela Medeiros, 2015. "Monetary policy in Brazil: evidence of a reaction function with time-varying parameters and endogenous regressors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 557-575, March.
    24. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    25. Yih Su & Jing-Shiang Hwang, 2009. "A two-phase approach to estimating time-varying parameters in the capital asset pricing model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 79-89.
    26. Kutlu, Levent, 2010. "Battese-coelli estimator with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 79-81, November.
    27. Jesus Felipe & John McCombie & Aashish Mehta & Donna Faye Bajaro, 2021. "Production Function Estimation: Biased Coefficients and Endogenous Regressors, or a Case of Collective Amnesia?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_994, Levy Economics Institute.
    28. Duygun, Meryem & Kutlu, Levent & Sickles, Robin C., 2014. "Measuring Productivity and Efficiency: A Kalman," Working Papers 15-010, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    29. Zhu, Yanli & Chen, Haiqiang, 2017. "The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 522-535.
    30. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    31. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    32. Mengheng Li & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "Looking for the stars: Estimating the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 51, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    33. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    34. Ángel Estrada, 2009. "The mark-ups in the Spanish economy: international comparison and recent evolution," Working Papers 0905, Banco de España.
    35. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    36. Norris I. Bruce, 2008. "Pooling and Dynamic Forgetting Effects in Multitheme Advertising: Tracking the Advertising Sales Relationship with Particle Filters," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 659-673, 07-08.
    37. Felipe, Jesus & Estrada, Gemma & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2022. "The turnaround in Philippine growth: From disappointment to promising success," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 327-342.
    38. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
    39. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    40. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    41. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2012. "A Note On Time Variation In A Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence From European Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S3), pages 422-437, November.
    42. KONISHI Yoko & NOMURA Koji, 2015. "Energy Efficiency Improvement and Technical Changes in Japanese Industries, 1955-2012," Discussion papers 15058, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    43. Kutlu, Levent & Sickles, Robin C., 2012. "Estimation of market power in the presence of firm level inefficiencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 141-155.
    44. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.

  14. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.

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    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Working Paper series 06_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2017. "Is Potential Output Growth Falling?," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2017_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    5. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2007. "Testing the Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/02, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    6. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2010. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries," Working Papers wpdea1007, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    7. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    8. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Fan, Longzhen & Yu, Yihong & Zhang, Chu, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of China's monetary policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 358-371, June.
    10. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2012. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification with Shifts and Rotations in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1443-1453, October.
    11. Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Is Monetary Policy in the New EU Member States Asymmetric?," Working Papers 2011/05, Czech National Bank.
    12. Best, Gabriela, 2017. "Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1957-1995, December.
    13. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    14. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.
    15. Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Sudarshan Kumar, 2020. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: inference on complex lead–lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 33-54, April.
    16. Jin, Hui & Jorgenson, Dale W., 2010. "Econometric modeling of technical change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 205-219, August.
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    51. Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2009. "Wage Bargaining Coordination and the Phillips Curve in Italy," Working Papers 0901, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
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    61. Kavtaradze, Lasha, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics in Georgia," MPRA Paper 59966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2015. "Has inflation targeting changed the conduct of monetary policy?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03411690, HAL.
    63. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2022. "Cheap Talk in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 661-691, September.
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    66. Kutlu, Levent, 2010. "Battese-coelli estimator with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 79-81, November.
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    68. Park, Soo Kyung & Park, Choel Beom, 2015. "Time-varying Cointegration Models and Exchange Rate Predictability in Korea," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 37(4), pages 1-20.
    69. Chen, Bin, 2015. "Modeling and testing smooth structural changes with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 196-215.
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    71. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    72. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    73. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2013. "Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 28-53, October.
    74. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Time-Varying Parameters in Monetary Policy Rules: A GMM Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10451, CESifo.
    75. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 584-593.
    76. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    77. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
    78. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    79. Ronald Henry Lange, 2018. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Canada: A Time-Varying Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(6), pages 42-51, November.
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    81. Felipe, Jesus & Estrada, Gemma & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2022. "The turnaround in Philippine growth: From disappointment to promising success," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 327-342.
    82. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
    83. Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Sheields, 2011. "The Meta Taylor Rule," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1131, The University of Melbourne.
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    86. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
    87. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    88. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    89. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    91. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2012. "A Note On Time Variation In A Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence From European Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S3), pages 422-437, November.
    92. KONISHI Yoko & NOMURA Koji, 2015. "Energy Efficiency Improvement and Technical Changes in Japanese Industries, 1955-2012," Discussion papers 15058, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    93. Yu Guo And Wei Ma, 2016. "Time-Varying Coefficient Taylor Rule and Chinese Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Time-Varying Cointegration," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 27-44, December.
    94. Kutlu, Levent & Sickles, Robin C., 2012. "Estimation of market power in the presence of firm level inefficiencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 141-155.
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    See citations under working paper version above.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
    2. S Kovács & P Bühlmann & H Li & A Munk, 2023. "Seeded binary segmentation: a general methodology for fast and optimal changepoint detection," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 110(1), pages 249-256.
    3. Theologos Dergiades & Panos K. Pouliasis, 2021. "Should Stock Returns Predictability be hooked on Long Horizon Regressions?," Discussion Paper Series 2021_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2021.
    4. Wang, Cindy S.H. & Fan, Rui & Xie, Yiqiang, 2023. "Market systemic risk, predictability and macroeconomics news," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Smith, Simon C., 2017. "Equity premium estimates from economic fundamentals under structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 49-61.
    6. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & Riza Emekter, 2009. "Conditional Volatility of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: A Pre- and Post-1993 Comparison," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 137-154, February.
    7. Chatzitzisi, Evanthia & Fountas, Stilianos & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Another look at calendar anomalies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 823-840.
    8. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2014. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," Working Paper series 31_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
    12. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    13. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Walentin Karl, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and the Equity Premium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, November.
    15. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Paper series 19_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "The expected real return to equity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1929-1946.
    17. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Quality Control for Structural Credit Risk Models," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 3-2007, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    18. Carlos Carvalho & Jared D. Fisher & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2018. "Optimal Asset Allocation with Multivariate Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models," Working Papers 123, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    19. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    20. He, Zhongfang & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Real time detection of structural breaks in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2628-2640, November.
    21. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer.
    22. Shin-Yun Wang & Ming-Che Chuang & Shih-Kuei Lin & So-De Shyu, 2021. "Option pricing under stock market cycles with jump risks: evidence from the S&P 500 index," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 25-51, January.
    23. Baciu (Boanta) Rodica & Brezeanu Petre & Adrian Simon, 2020. "The Influence of Bank Credit on Financial Structure and Financial Return for the Romanian Companies Active in Car Parts Distribution," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(2), pages 1-73, May.
    24. Missaka Warusawitharana, 2011. "The expected real return to equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
    26. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
    27. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
    28. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.
    29. Simon C. Smith, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 412-429, July.
    30. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Bayesian model averaging and the conditional volatility process: an application to predicting aggregate equity returns by conditioning on economic variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1387-1411, August.
    31. Farooq Malik, 2015. "Revisiting the relationship between risk and return," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-40, January.

  17. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C & Nelson, Charles R, 2004. "Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 339-360, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Kim, C.-J.Chang-Jin, 2004. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 127-136, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    2. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    4. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2009. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables II: A two-step MLE procedure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 46-55, January.
    5. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    6. Alejandro Gaytán & Jesús González-García, 2007. "Cambios estructurales en el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria en México: un enfoque VAR no lineal," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 367-404, octubre-d.
    7. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    9. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2012. "Rational expectations, changing monetary policy rules, and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2824-2836.
    10. Kirstin Hubrich & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2022. "The transmission of financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: An endogenous regime switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2015. "The Role of Financial Depth on The Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," EcoMod2015 8285, EcoMod.
    12. Chang Jin Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime And Monetary Policy Independence In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 155-170, May.
    13. Cardoso de Mendonça, Mário Jorge, 2013. "O Crédito Imobiliário no Brasil e sua Relação com a Política Monetária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    14. Yoosoon Chang & Fei Tan & Xin Wei, 2018. "State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    15. George Kapetanios, 2004. "Testing for Exogeneity in Nonlinear Threshold Models," Working Papers 515, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2023. "Statistical analysis of Markov switching vector autoregression models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Marshall S. Jiang & Jie Jiao & Zhouyu Lin & Jun Xia, 2021. "Learning through observation or through acquisition? Innovation performance as an outcome of internal and external knowledge combination," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 35-63, March.
    18. Hao, Shiming, 2021. "True structure change, spurious treatment effect? A novel approach to disentangle treatment effects from structure changes," MPRA Paper 108679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dorsett, Richard & Lui, Silvia & Weale, Martin, 2014. "Education and its effects on income and mortality of men aged sixty-five and over in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 71-82.
    20. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    21. Richard Apau & Peter Moores-Pitt & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2021. "Regime-Switching Determinants of Mutual Fund Performance in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    22. Andrea Eross & Andrew Urquhart & Simon Wolfe, 2019. "Investigating risk contagion initiated by endogenous liquidity shocks: evidence from the US and eurozone interbank markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 35-53, January.
    23. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2014. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1079-1091.
    24. Andrei Sirchenko, 2019. "A regime-switching model for the federal funds rate target," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 19-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    25. Kerekes, Monika, 2012. "Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 167-177.
    26. Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Park, Joon Y., 2017. "A new approach to model regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 127-143.
    27. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    28. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2012. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A MRS-IV Approach," Working Papers 2012025, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    29. Zhu, Yanli & Chen, Haiqiang, 2017. "The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 522-535.
    30. Psaradakis Zacharias & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2006. "Instrumental-Variables Estimation in Markov Switching Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables: An Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-31, May.
    31. Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy in Japan: Do rule-of-thumb households increase the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 49-61.
    32. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    33. Oscar Díaz Q. & Marco Laguna V., 2007. "Factores que explican la reducción de las tasas pasivas de interés en el sistema bancario boliviano," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 331-366, octubre-d.
    34. Wang, Zanxin & Wei, Wei & Luo, Junwen & Calderon, Margaret, 2019. "The effects of petroleum product price regulation on macroeconomic stability in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 96-105.
    35. Simmons-Süer, Banu, 2018. "“How relevant is capital structure for aggregate investment? a regime-switching approach”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 109-117.
    36. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.
    37. Pamela Hall, 2011. "Is there any evidence of a Greenspan put?," Working Papers 2011-06, Swiss National Bank.
    38. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
    39. Kerekes, Monika, 2009. "Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth," Discussion Papers 2009/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

  20. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    2. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beverridge Nelson Decomposition With Markov Switching," CAMA Working Papers 2006-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    4. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    5. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Has the G7 business cycle become more synchronized ?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 782, Econometric Society.
    6. Zeynep Senyuz, 2011. "Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
    7. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    8. Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    9. Dominique Guegan, 2011. "Contagion Between the Financial Sphere and the Real Economy. Parametric and non Parametric Tools: A Comparison," Post-Print halshs-00185373, HAL.
    10. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2012. "The transitory and permanent volatility of oil prices: What implications are there for the US industrial production?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 447-455.
    11. Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
    12. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    13. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2004.
    14. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    16. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    17. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    18. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the great moderation," Post-Print hal-00828978, HAL.
    19. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2011. "Beta-product Poisson-Dirichlet Processes," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 12160, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    20. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
    21. Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2006. "Output fluctuations persistence: Do cyclical shocks matter?," Working Papers 2006_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    22. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
    23. Christina V. Atanasova & Jianhua Gang, 2008. "The Decline In The Volatility Of The Business Cycles In The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 14-36, September.
    24. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    25. Charles I. Jones, 2003. "Growth, capital shares, and a new perspective on production functions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    26. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
    27. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    28. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    29. Dominique Guegan, 2011. "Contagion Between the Financial Sphere and the Real Economy. Parametric and non Parametric Tools: A Comparison," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00185373, HAL.
    30. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    31. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    32. Barraez, Daniel & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2009. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation: Looking at the future during uncertain times," MPRA Paper 106550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
    34. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen, 2013. "Beta-Product Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes for Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2013:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    35. James A Kahn & Robert Rich, 2003. "Distinguishing trends from cycles in productivity," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 443-462, Bank for International Settlements.
    36. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    37. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    38. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "Comment on "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods"," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1691-1693, July.
    39. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Business cycle dynamics in a small open economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1153-1157.
    40. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Yin, Ming, 2015. "Estimating Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive model with Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm: A parallel GPU implementation," MPRA Paper 88111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    42. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?," IMF Working Papers 2005/029, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Michael J. Dueker & Charles R. Nelson, 2003. "Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index," Working Papers 2002-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    44. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    45. Mr. Ebrima A Faal, 2005. "GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2005/093, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Zhu, Junjun & Xie, Shiyu, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks, Long-term Bonds and Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 28236, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  22. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 2001. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov-Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 989-1013, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Nam Chong-Hyun & Kim Chang-Jin, 2000. "Capital Accumulation And Trade Policy:The Case Of Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131.

    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Garcia-Blanch, 2001. "An Empirical Inquiry into the Nature of South Korean Economic Growth," CID Working Papers 74A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Jong Eun Lee, 2004. "The sequential issue in free trade areas: Policy implication for Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 165-174.

  25. Engel, Charles & Kim, Chang-Jin, 1999. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 335-356, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Thomas, 2007. "Search Frictions, Real Rigidities and Inflation Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0822, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
    3. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    4. R. Jason Faberman, 2008. "Job flows, jobless recoveries, and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 08-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2018. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," European Economy - Discussion Papers 075, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Jorge Andrés Tamayo Castaño, 2012. "Asimetrías en la demanda por trabajo en Colombia: el papel del ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 9286, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Ćorić, Bruno & Pugh, Geoff, 2013. "Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 260-271.
    8. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2006. "What accounts for the changes in U.S. fiscal policy transmission?," Working Paper Series 582, European Central Bank.
    9. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
    11. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    13. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    14. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    16. Laurent Callot & Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2016. "Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models: The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 437-479, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. Jing Zhou & Pierre Perron, 2008. "Testing for Breaks in Coefficients and Error Variance: Simulations and Applications," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    18. Mr. Maxym Kryshko, 2011. "Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models," IMF Working Papers 2011/216, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working papers 2008-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    20. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-1652, September.
    21. Marcelle Chauvet, 2001. "The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 033, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    22. Stock, James & Watson, Mark & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    24. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
    25. Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Do Recessions Occur Concurrently Across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach," Working Papers 2022:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
    26. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    27. Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003. "Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
    28. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    29. Michail Karoglou & Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2013. "Risk and Structural Instability in US House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 424-436, April.
    30. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    31. Helge Braun & Reinout De Bock & Riccardo DiCecio, 2006. "Aggregate shocks and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers 2006-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    32. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00658540, HAL.
    33. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    34. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Robert Taylor, 2017. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bootstrap Inference in Fractional Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CREATES Research Papers 2017-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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    3. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    4. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    5. Kola Akinsomi & Mehmet Balcilar & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effect of Gold Market Speculation on REIT Returns in South Africa: A Behavioral Perspective," Working Papers 201643, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working papers 2008-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Richard Luger, 2001. "Exact Non-Parametric Tests for a Random Walk with Unknown Drift under Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Staff Working Papers 01-2, Bank of Canada.
    8. Nelson Areal & Maria Cortez & Florinda Silva, 2013. "The conditional performance of US mutual funds over different market regimes: do different types of ethical screens matter?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 397-429, December.
    9. Onour, Ibrahim, 2021. "The impact of the covid-19 pandemic on major Asian stock markets: evidence of decoupling effects," MPRA Paper 115994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2007. "Cross-Country Evidence on Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance and GARCH Models," Working papers 2007-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2008.
    11. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," Staff Working Papers 14-38, Bank of Canada.
    13. Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 96-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working papers 2014-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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    17. Vassilios Babalos & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nikolaos Philippas, 2014. "Revisiting Herding Behavior in REITs: A RegimeSwitching Approach," Working Papers 15-15, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    18. Siok Kun Sek, 2023. "A new look at asymmetric effect of oil price changes on inflation: Evidence from Malaysia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1524-1547, August.
    19. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
    20. Chopin, Nicolas & Pelgrin, Florian, 2004. "Bayesian inference and state number determination for hidden Markov models: an application to the information content of the yield curve about inflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 327-344, December.
    21. Lin, Shih-Kuei & Wang, Shin-Yun & Tsai, Pei-Ling, 2009. "Application of hidden Markov switching moving average model in the stock markets: Theory and empirical evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 306-317, March.
    22. Bhar, Ramprasad & Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Toan M., 2004. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-525, December.
    23. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    226. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2001. "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(1), May.

  30. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data II: Autoregression tests based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-396, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Galay & Henry Thille, 2021. "Pipeline capacity and the dynamics of Alberta crude oil price spreads," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1072-1102, November.
    2. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    3. Kola Akinsomi & Mehmet Balcilar & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effect of Gold Market Speculation on REIT Returns in South Africa: A Behavioral Perspective," Working Papers 201643, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Richard Luger, 2001. "Exact Non-Parametric Tests for a Random Walk with Unknown Drift under Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Staff Working Papers 01-2, Bank of Canada.
    5. Onour, Ibrahim, 2021. "The impact of the covid-19 pandemic on major Asian stock markets: evidence of decoupling effects," MPRA Paper 115994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2007. "Cross-Country Evidence on Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance and GARCH Models," Working papers 2007-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2008.
    7. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Output Growth and Its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Working papers 2012-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working papers 2014-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Working Papers 2005-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Vassilios Babalos & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nikolaos Philippas, 2014. "Revisiting Herding Behavior in REITs: A RegimeSwitching Approach," Working Papers 15-15, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    12. Siok Kun Sek, 2023. "A new look at asymmetric effect of oil price changes on inflation: Evidence from Malaysia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1524-1547, August.
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
    14. Graflund, Andreas, 2000. "A Bayesian Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Working Papers 2000:8, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 30 Jan 2002.
    15. Bazgour Tarik & Heuchenne Cedric & Hübner Georges & Sougné Danielle, 2021. "How do volatility regimes affect the pricing of quality and liquidity in the stock market?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, February.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    17. Turattia, Douglas Eduardo & Mendes, Fernando Henrique P.S. & Caldeira, João Frois, 2020. "Testing for mean reversion in Bitcoin returns with Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    18. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ahmed Khalifa, 2013. "Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?," Working Papers 819, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
    19. Onour, Ibrahim A., 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic shock on major Asian stock markets: evidence of decoupling effects," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 34(2), pages 21-32.
    20. John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2021. "Average crossing time: An alternative characterization of mean aversion and reversion," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 903-944, July.
    21. L. Spierdijk & J.A. Bikker & P. van den Hoek, 2010. "Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th Century," Working Papers 10-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    22. Shlomo Zilca, 2010. "The variance ratio and trend stationary model as extensions of a constrained autoregressive model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 467-475.
    23. Yarovaya, Larisa & Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2021. "The effects of a “black swan” event (COVID-19) on herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    24. Andreas Graflund, 2000. "A Bayes Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1363, Econometric Society.
    25. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    26. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    27. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2016. "Markov-switching variance models and structural changes underlying Japanese bond yields: An inquiry into non-linear dynamics," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 74-80.
    28. Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Park, Joon Y., 2017. "A new approach to model regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 127-143.
    29. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
    30. Jorge M. Andraz & Nélia M. Norte, 2017. "Gross domestic product growth, volatility and regime changes nexus: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, April.
    31. Nielsen, Steen & Olesen, Jan Overgaard, 2001. "Regime-Switching Stock Returns And Mean Reversion," Working Papers 11-2000, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    32. James Morley, 2000. "Is There a Positive Intertemporal Tradeoff Between Risk and Return After All?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0915, Econometric Society.
    33. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    34. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
    35. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2014. "What drives herding in oil-rich, developing stock markets? Relative roles of own volatility and global factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 418-440.
    36. E.B. Nkemnole & J.T. Wulu, 2017. "Modeling of stock indices with HMM-SV models," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 45-60, Summer.
    37. Hibiki Ichiue & Kentaro Koyama, 2007. "Regime Switches in Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Parity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-22, Bank of Japan.
    38. Eric Hillebrand, 2005. "Mean Reversion Expectations and the 1987 Stock Market Crash: An Empirical Investigation," Finance 0501015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Ye Xue & Yiting Huang, 2017. "Study on the price co-movement among the Asia Pacific, European and Chinese coal markets – based on the empirical analysis of MS-VEC model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 693-701, February.
    40. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2014. "True or spurious long memory in volatility: Further evidence on the energy futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 76-93.
    41. Zhang, Bing & Zhou, Yun, 2015. "Asymmetries in stock marketsAuthor-Name: Wang, Peijie," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(3), pages 749-762.
    42. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    43. Almaas, Synne S. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2019. "Modelling the real yen–dollar rate and inflation dynamics based on international parity conditions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 51-64.
    44. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2014. "A Bayesian Approach to Modelling Bivariate Time-Varying Cointegration and Cointegrating Rank," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    45. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The Risk Exposures of Safe Havens to Global and Regional Stock Market Shocks: A Novel Approach," Working Papers 201915, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    46. L. Spierdijk & J.A. Bikker, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors," Working Papers 12-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    47. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Bolatoglu, Nasip, 2007. "A regime switching approach to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: Evidence from some European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 523-533.

  31. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Myung-Jig, 1996. "Transient Fads and the Crash of '87," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 41-58, Jan.-Feb..

    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Dufrenot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "Changing-regime volatility: A fractionally integrated SETAR model," Post-Print halshs-00185369, HAL.
    2. Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 96-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    3. Fiorentini, G. & Planas, C. & Rossi, A., 2012. "The marginal likelihood of dynamic mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(9), pages 2650-2662.
    4. Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam & Anwar, Sajid, 2012. "Sources of volatility persistence: A case study of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-184.
    5. Escobari, Diego & Sharma, Shahil, 2020. "Explaining the nonlinear response of stock markets to oil price shocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    7. Alistair Mees & Berndt Pilgram, 2000. "Non-Linear Markov Modelling Using Canonical Variate Analysis: Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1162, Econometric Society.
    8. Marcel Scharth & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2006. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks," Textos para discussão 532, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    9. Cho, Jaeho & Yoo, Byoung Hark, 2011. "The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 246-252.
    10. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    11. Choi, Kyongwook & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2010. "Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4388-4399, August.
    12. A. B. M. Rabiul Alam Beg & Sajid Anwar, 2014. "Detecting volatility persistence in GARCH models in the presence of the leverage effect," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2205-2213, December.
    13. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2004. "Empirical characteristics of the permanent and transitory components of stock return: analysis in a Markov switching heteroscedasticity framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 157-165, February.
    14. Adlai Fisher, 1999. "Multivariate Stock Returns Around Extreme Events: A Reassessment of Economic Fundamentals and the 1987 Market Crash," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-071, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    15. Christian Jochum, 2001. "Is the covariance of international stock market returns regime dependent?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 247-268.
    16. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2012. "Examining the stochastic behavior of REIT returns: Evidence from the regime switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 291-298.

  32. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1993. "Sources of Monetary Growth Uncertainty and Economic Activity: The Time-Varying-Parameter Model with Heteroskedastic Disturbances," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 483-492, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1995. "Identifying Austria's implicit monetary target: an alternative test of the \"hard currency\" policy," Working Papers 1995-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Kola Akinsomi & Mehmet Balcilar & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effect of Gold Market Speculation on REIT Returns in South Africa: A Behavioral Perspective," Working Papers 201643, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    4. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
    5. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Haiyan Song & Doris C Wu, 2008. "The tourism forecasting competition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Oct 2009.
    6. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2009. "Sources of Uncertainty in Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 12, pages 451-509, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Conditional heteroscedasticity with leverage effect in stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 89-102.
    8. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Supply Side of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 422, Econometric Society.
    9. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    10. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
    11. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
    12. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    13. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2003. "Sources of inflation uncertainty and real economic activity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 397-409, September.
    14. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
    15. Yanbin Chen & Zhen Huo, 2009. "A Conjecture of Chinese Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence from Survey Data, Markov Regime Switching, and Drifting Coefficients," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 111-153, May.
    16. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    17. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    18. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Compound volatility processes in EMS exchange rates," Working Papers 1994-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, September.
    22. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    23. Toru Komaki & Jeremy Penzer, 2005. "Estimation of time‐varying price elasticity in 1970–1997 Japanese raw milk supply by structural time‐series model," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 1-14, January.
    24. Johnson, Lorne D. & Sakoulis, Georgios, 2008. "Maximizing equity market sector predictability in a Bayesian time-varying parameter model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3083-3106, February.
    25. Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2003. "The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 431-435.
    26. Antonio N. Bojanic, 2021. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation in Bolivia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, March.
    27. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.

  34. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1993. "Unobserved-Component Time Series Models with Markov-Switching Heteroscedasticity: Changes in Regime and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 341-349, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1989. "The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of the Lucas Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 433-440, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beverridge Nelson Decomposition With Markov Switching," CAMA Working Papers 2006-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Kola Akinsomi & Mehmet Balcilar & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effect of Gold Market Speculation on REIT Returns in South Africa: A Behavioral Perspective," Working Papers 201643, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Michiel D. de Pooter & René Segers & Herman K. van Dijk, 2006. "On the Practice of Bayesian Inference in Basic Economic Time Series Models using Gibbs Sampling," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-076/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Gbaguidi DAVID, 2011. "Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 141-181.
    6. Baik, Hyeoncheol & Han, Sumin & Joo, Sunghoon & Lee, Kangbok, 2022. "A bank's optimal capital ratio: A time-varying parameter model to the partial adjustment framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
    8. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    9. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices," Staff Working Papers 04-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.
    11. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
    12. Vipul Bhatt & Amr Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor, 2017. "The Dynamic Behaviour of Implicit Inflation Targets for ‘Inflation Targeting Lite’ Economies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 67-88, March.
    13. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
    14. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2015. "The Role of Financial Depth on The Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," EcoMod2015 8285, EcoMod.
    15. Jacek Suda & Anastasia Zervou, 2016. "International Great Inflation and Common Monetary Policy," Working Papers 20160513_001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    16. Mapa, Dennis S. & Castillo, Kristelle & Francisco, Krizia, 2015. "Rice Price, Job Misery, Hunger Incidence: Need to Track Few More Statistical Indicators for the Poor," MPRA Paper 61990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
    18. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2003. "Sources of inflation uncertainty and real economic activity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 397-409, September.
    19. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    20. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2003. "Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods," Staff Working Papers 03-7, Bank of Canada.
    21. Ho-Chuan Huang & Shu-Chin Lin, 2006. "Time-varying discrete monetary policy reaction functions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 449-464.
    22. Calice, Giovanni & Ioannidis, Christos & Miao, RongHui, 2016. "A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 189-204.
    23. Amr S. Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2015. "Understanding the dynamics of the macroeconomic trilemma," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 32-64, January.
    24. Cheng Jiang, 2018. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-27, September.
    25. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    26. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Sajjadur Rahman, 2018. "The Lucas hypothesis on monetary shocks: evidence from a GARCH-in-mean model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1411-1450, June.
    28. de Pooter, M.D. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, H.K., 2006. "Gibbs sampling in econometric practice," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    29. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    30. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Johnson, Lorne D. & Sakoulis, Georgios, 2008. "Maximizing equity market sector predictability in a Bayesian time-varying parameter model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3083-3106, February.
    32. Myeong Hwan Kim & Soung Chan Lee & Kwang Woo Park, 2007. "Income Inequality and Marriage," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(20), pages 1-12.

Books

  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Linton, Oliver & Seo, Myunghwan, 2005. "A smoothed least squares estimator for threshold regression models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4434, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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