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Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

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  • He, Dong
  • Liao, Wei
  • Wu, Tommy

Abstract

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Dong & Liao, Wei & Wu, Tommy, 2015. "Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:40:y:2015:i:c:p:10-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2015.08.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle synchronization; Permanent income hypothesis; Stochastic trend; Structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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