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Hong Kong's Growth Synchronisation with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dong He

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Wei Liao

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Tommy Wu

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper investigates the synchronisation of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyse how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong He & Wei Liao & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Hong Kong's Growth Synchronisation with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 152014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:152014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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