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Conditional heteroscedasticity with leverage effect in stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

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  • Long, Ling
  • Tsui, Albert K.
  • Zhang, Zhaoyong

Abstract

In recent years the Chinese stock market has experienced an astonishing growth and unprecedented development, but is also viewed as one of the most volatile markets, which has been called by many observers a “casino”. This study intends to examine the presence of heteroskedasticity and the leverage effect in the Chinese stock markets, and to capture the dynamics of conditional correlation between returns of China's stock markets and those of the U.S. in a bivariate VC-MGARCH framework. The results show that the leverage effect is significant in these markets during the sample period in 2000–2013, and the conditional correlation between mainland China's and the U.S. stock markets is quite low and highly volatile. The Chinese stock markets are found to be highly regimes persistent. These findings have important implication for investors seeking opportunity of portfolio diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Conditional heteroscedasticity with leverage effect in stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 89-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:89-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Borjigin, Sumuya & Gao, Ting & Sun, Yafei & An, Biao, 2020. "For evil news rides fast, while good news baits later?—A network based analysis in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    2. Shen, Yifan, 2018. "International risk transmission of stock market movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 220-236.
    3. Muhammad Surajo Sanusi, 2017. "Investigating the sources of Black’s leverage effect in oil and gas stocks," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1318812-131, January.
    4. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    5. Alemany, Nuria & Aragó, Vicent & Salvador, Enrique, 2020. "The distribution of index futures realised volatility under seasonality and microstructure noise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 398-414.
    6. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Volatility forecasting: The role of lunch-break returns, overnight returns, trading volume and leverage effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 609-619.
    7. Geeta Duppati & Yang (Greg) Hou & Frank Scrimgeour, 2017. "The dynamics of price discovery for cross-listed stocks evidence from US and Chinese markets," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1389675-138, January.
    8. Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq & Park, Jin Suk, 2019. "The impact of trade intensity and Market characteristics on asymmetric volatility, spillovers and asymmetric spillovers: Evidence from the response of international stock markets to US shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 79-94.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock return; Chinese stock market; Conditional heteroskedasticity; Leverage effect; Regime persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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