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Chinese and world equity markets: A review of the volatilities and correlations in the first fifteen years

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  • Lin, Kuan-Pin
  • Menkveld, Albert J.
  • Yang, Zhishu

Abstract

After more than 15years of Chinese equity markets, we study how variance, covariance, and correlations have developed in these markets relative to world markets, based on the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model of Engle [Engle, R., 2002. A dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 20(3), 339-350.]. Chinese markets offer A-shares to domestic investors and otherwise identical B-shares to foreign investors. We find that the volatility of A-shares has declined over the past decade. We find no asymmetric volatility relative to world markets in China. Contrary to the global trend of increasing cross-country correlations, we find stationary correlations for China. A-share indices have never been correlated with world markets, and B-share indices exhibit a low degree of correlation with Western markets (0-5%) and a slightly higher degree of correlation with other Asian markets (10-20%). We interpret these findings using Gordon's growth model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Kuan-Pin & Menkveld, Albert J. & Yang, Zhishu, 2009. "Chinese and world equity markets: A review of the volatilities and correlations in the first fifteen years," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 29-45, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:29-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huo, Rui & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2017. "Return and volatility spillovers effects: Evaluating the impact of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 260-272.
    2. Du, Yuxin & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2012. "A bibliometric account of Chinese economics research through the lens of the China Economic Review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 743-762.
    3. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Ng, Andrew C.Y. & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2015. "Managing financial risk in Chinese stock markets: Option pricing and modeling under a multivariate threshold autoregression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 217-230.
    4. M. Fatih Oztek & Nadir Ocal, 2012. "Integration of China Stock Markets with International Stock Markets: An application of Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation with Double Transition Functions," ERC Working Papers 1209, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.
    5. Yertai Tanai & Kuan-Pin Lin, 2013. "Mongolian and World Equity Markets: Volatilities and Correlations," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(2), pages 136-164, December.
    6. He, Hongbo & Chen, Shou & Yao, Shujie & Ou, Jinghua, 2014. "Financial liberalisation and international market interdependence: Evidence from China’s stock market in the post-WTO accession period," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 434-444.
    7. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "Enter the dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific equity markets, 1995–2010," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 521-541.
    8. Erdogan, Oral & Tata, Kenan & Karahasan, B. Can & Sengoz, M. Hakan, 2013. "Dynamics of the co-movement between stock and maritime markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 282-290.
    9. Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Conditional heteroscedasticity with leverage effect in stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 89-102.
    10. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    11. Weber, Enzo & Zhang, Yanqun, 2012. "Common influences, spillover and integration in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 382-394.
    12. Zhou, Xiangyi & Zhang, Weijin & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-270.
    13. Li, Hong, 2012. "The impact of China's stock market reforms on its international stock market linkages," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 358-368.
    14. Ye, George L., 2014. "The interactions between China and US stock markets: New perspectives," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 331-342.
    15. Luo, Weiwei & Brooks, Robert D. & Silvapulle, Param, 2011. "Effects of the open policy on the dependence between the Chinese 'A' stock market and other equity markets: An industry sector perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 49-74, February.
    16. Zhang, Bing & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2014. "Has there been any change in the comovement between the Chinese and US stock markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 525-536.
    17. Li, Hong, 2013. "Integration versus segmentation in China's stock market: An analysis of time-varying beta risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-105.
    18. repec:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pa:p:109-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Mehmet Fatih Öztek & Nadir Öcal, 2016. "The effects of domestic and international news and volatility on integration of Chinese stock markets with international stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 317-360, March.
    20. Yusaku Nishimura & Ming Men, 2010. "The paradox of China's international stock market co-movement: Evidence from volatility spillover effects between China and G5 stock markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 235-253, October.

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