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The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application

  • Jiří Mazurek
  • Elena Mielcová

We propose a new quantitative recession magnitude scale for measuring recessions´ magnitudes (´strength´) derived from GDP growth rates during a recession and its duration. Furthermore, we introduce a qualitative scale with four recession categories: minor, major, severe and ultra, where the categories are defined by the magnitude scale. We use both scales to evaluate several well known economic recessions of the 20th and the 21st centuries. We have found that the Great Depression in 1929-1933 and recessions in Russia and Ukraine in the 1990s belong to ultra recessions, while the recent 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis falls mainly into major (EU and Japan) and severe (USA) category.

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Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2013 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 182-205

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:2:id:447:p:182-205
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  1. Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 1996. "The Italian recession of 1993: Aggregate implications of microeconomic evidence," IFS Working Papers W96/09, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
  3. Kim, C-J & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations : Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Working Papers 97-06, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  4. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  5. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
  6. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, September.
  8. Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "The current recession: how bad is it?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Arthur F. Burns, 1958. "The Current Business Recession," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31, pages 145.
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