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The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application

  • Jiří Mazurek
  • Elena Mielcová

We propose a new quantitative recession magnitude scale for measuring recessions´ magnitudes (´strength´) derived from GDP growth rates during a recession and its duration. Furthermore, we introduce a qualitative scale with four recession categories: minor, major, severe and ultra, where the categories are defined by the magnitude scale. We use both scales to evaluate several well known economic recessions of the 20th and the 21st centuries. We have found that the Great Depression in 1929-1933 and recessions in Russia and Ukraine in the 1990s belong to ultra recessions, while the recent 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis falls mainly into major (EU and Japan) and severe (USA) category.

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Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2013 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 182-205

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:2:id:447:p:182-205
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  1. Kim, C-J & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations : Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-06, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  3. Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "The current recession: how bad is it?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 1999. "The Italian Recession Of 1993: Aggregate Implications Of Microeconomic Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 237-249, May.
  5. Arthur F. Burns, 1958. "The Current Business Recession," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31, pages 145.
  6. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  7. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, May.
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