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The evaluation of recession magnitudes in EU countries during the global financial crisis 2008-2010

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  • Mazurek, Jiří

Abstract

The aim of the article is to compare 2008-2010 recessions in individual EU countries. For the comparison a new quantitative measure – recession magnitude scale – is used. The scale is derived from (negative) quarterly GDP growth rates during a recession and its duration. Moreover, recessions are classified on the basis of their magnitudes into one of four categories: minor, major, severe and ultra. The strongest recession (of severe category) took place in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Ireland, while the majority of EU countries experienced recessions of major category. Magnitude of Greek recession will be evaluated after the end of the ongoing event. The weakest recessions in EU occurred in France, Malta and Cyprus (the only recession of minor category). A comparison of EU’s recession with the US Great Depression in the 1930s revealed that the recent crisis was more than eight times smaller than that of 1930s. Furthermore, it was found out that recession magnitudes in EU countries were positively correlated to the countries’ economic growth prior to the recession and this relationship was statistically significant at 0.01 level.

Suggested Citation

  • Mazurek, Jiří, 2014. "The evaluation of recession magnitudes in EU countries during the global financial crisis 2008-2010," MPRA Paper 56451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56451
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56451/1/MPRA_paper_56451.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    2. Jiří Mazurek & Elena Mielcová, 2013. "The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(2), pages 182-205.
    3. Paul Gaggl & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Prettner & Thomas Url, 2009. "The short and long-run interdependencies between the Eurozone and the USA," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 209-227, May.
    4. Martin Falk & Franz Sinabell, 2009. "A spatial econometric analysis of the regional growth and volatility in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 193-207, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; global financial crisis; recession; recession classification; recession magnitude.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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