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The Italian Recession Of 1993: Aggregate Implications Of Microeconomic Evidence


  • Raffaele Miniaci
  • Guglielmo Weber


We use household-level data covering a ten-year period (1984 to 1993) to investigate the likely determinants of the Italian recession of 1993, the first year after WWII when private consumption fell. Consumption fell most for working-age households and for the self-employed. Our evidence is consistent with the response to permanent negative shocks due to the major pension reform of 1992 and the introduction of stricter tax-compliance measures for the self-employed. This is still true when we control for the role played by job losses and the collapse of the retail sector that characterized the early 1990s. © 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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  • Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 1999. "The Italian Recession Of 1993: Aggregate Implications Of Microeconomic Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 237-249, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:2:p:237-249

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
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    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
    9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jappelli, Tullio, 2001. "Comment on the International Savings Comparison Project," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 173-184, June.
    2. Jiří Mazurek & Elena Mielcová, 2013. "The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(2), pages 182-205.
    3. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: Evidence on Italy," MPRA Paper 60297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Paiella, Monica, 2007. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 189-205, March.
    5. Pasquale Tridico, 2012. "Italy from economic decline to the current crisis," Working Papers 0005, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    6. Antonio Bassanetti & Martina Cecioni & Andrea Nobili & Giordano Zevi, 2011. "Le principali recessioni italiane: un confronto retrospettivo," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 281-318, JULY-SEPT.
    7. Charles Grant & Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 2002. "Changes in Consumption Behaviour: Italy in the Early 1990s," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(1), pages 61-101, June.
    8. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 287-316.

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