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The Italian Recession Of 1993: Aggregate Implications Of Microeconomic Evidence

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  • Raffaele Miniaci
  • Guglielmo Weber

Abstract

We use household-level data covering a ten-year period (1984 to 1993) to investigate the likely determinants of the Italian recession of 1993, the first year after WWII when private consumption fell. Consumption fell most for working-age households and for the self-employed. Our evidence is consistent with the response to permanent negative shocks due to the major pension reform of 1992 and the introduction of stricter tax-compliance measures for the self-employed. This is still true when we control for the role played by job losses and the collapse of the retail sector that characterized the early 1990s. © 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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  • Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 1999. "The Italian Recession Of 1993: Aggregate Implications Of Microeconomic Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 237-249, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:2:p:237-249
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    Cited by:

    1. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    3. Paolo Di Caro, 2015. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: evidence on Italy," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 273-291.
    4. Paiella, Monica, 2007. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 189-205, March.
    5. Eran B. Hoffmann & Davide Malacrino & Luigi Pistaferri, 2022. "Earnings dynamics and labor market reforms: The Italian case," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1637-1667, November.
    6. Claudio Daminato & Mario Padula, 2020. "The Life-Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: A Structural Approach," CSEF Working Papers 585, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    7. Andrea Brandolini & Romina Gambacorta & Alfonso Rosolia, 2018. "Inequality amid income stagnation: Italy over the last quarter of a century," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 442, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Pasquale Tridico, 2012. "Italy from economic decline to the current crisis," Working Papers 0005, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    9. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 287-316.
    10. Antonio Bassanetti & Martina Cecioni & Andrea Nobili & Giordano Zevi, 2011. "Le principali recessioni italiane: un confronto retrospettivo," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 281-318, JULY-SEPT.
    11. Charles Grant & Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 2002. "Changes in Consumption Behaviour: Italy in the Early 1990s," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(1), pages 61-101, June.
    12. Cristina Bernini & Maria Francesca Cracolici & Peter Nijkamp, 2020. "Micro and Macro Resilience Measures of an Economic Crisis," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 47-71, March.
    13. Jappelli, Tullio, 2001. "Comment on the International Savings Comparison Project," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 173-184, June.
    14. Jiří Mazurek & Elena Mielcová, 2013. "The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 182-205.
    15. Riccardo De Bonis & Danilo Liberati & John Muellbauer & Concetta Rondinelli, 2020. "Consumption and wealth: new evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1304, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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