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Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation

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  • Hanck Christoph

    (METEOR)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new testing approach for panel unit roots that is, unlike previously suggested tests, robust to nonstationarity in the volatility process of the innovations of the time series in the panel. Nonstationarity volatility arises for instance when there are structural breaks in the innovation variances. A prominent example is the reduction in GDP growth variances enjoyed by many industrialized countries, known as the `Great Moderation.'' The panel test is based on Simes'' [Biometrika 1986, "An Improved Bonferroni Procedure for Multiple Tests of Significance''''] classical multiple test, which combines evidence from time series unit root tests of the series in the panel. As time series unit root tests, we employ recently proposed tests of Cavaliere and Taylor [Journal of Time Series Analysis 2008, "Time-Transformed Unit Root Tests for Models with Non-Stationary Volatility'''']. The panel test is robust to general patterns of cross-sectional dependence and yet straightforward to implement, only requiring valid p-values of time series unit root tests, and no resampling. Monte Carlo experiments show that other panel unit root tests suffer from sometimes severe size distortions in the presence of nonstationary volatility, and that this defect can be remedied using the test proposed here. The new test is applied to test for a unit root in an OECD panel of gross domestic products, yielding inference robust to the ''Great Moderation''. We find little evidence of trend stationarity.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanck Christoph, 2009. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Research Memorandum 009, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2009009
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    Cited by:

    1. Herwartz, Helmut & Siedenburg, Florian, 2009. "The effects of variance breaks on homogenous panel unit root tests," Economics Working Papers 2009-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Adina I. Tarcolea, 2014. "Iv-Based Cointegration Testing In Dependent Panels With Time-Varying Variance," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 393-406, August.
    3. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg & Yabibal M. Walle, 2016. "Heteroskedasticity Robust Panel Unit Root Testing Under Variance Breaks in Pooled Regressions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 727-750, May.

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