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A Multicountry Characterization of the Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output

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  • Kormendi, Roger C
  • Meguire, Philip

Abstract

The authors compute the scaled varlogram (the variances of kth differences scaled by the variance of first differences) of the log of annual per capita real aggregate output (GDP or GNP), as measured by (1) the long series for the United States and United Kingdom; (2) Angus Maddison's (1982) long series for twelve countries; and (3) the postwar IFS data for thirty-two countries. Simulations show that the scaled varlogram of real output is nearly always more consistent with the data being generated by parsimonious difference stationary than trend stationary univariate processes. In fact, the data reveal some "excess nonstationarity" relative to parsimonious ARIMA models. The power of the scaled varlogram to discriminate between trend stationary and difference stationary processes is somewhat greater than that of a Dickey-Fuller type F test. Copyright 1990 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip, 1990. "A Multicountry Characterization of the Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:22:y:1990:i:1:p:77-93
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2015. "Nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root tests and the great moderation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(2), pages 161-187, April.
    2. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0434, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Avdoulas, Christos & Bekiros, Stelios & Boubaker, Sabri, 2016. "Detecting nonlinear dependencies in eurozone peripheral equity markets: A multistep filtering approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 580-587.
    4. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-162, January.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0434 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. F. Goerlich, 1991. "Persistencia en las fluctuaciones económicas: evidencia para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(1), pages 193-202, January.
    8. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
    9. Hanck, Christoph, 2008. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 11988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aviral Tiwari & Amrit Chaudhari & K. Suresh, 2012. "Are Asian Per Capita GDP Stationary? Evidence from First and Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(1), pages 3-11, September.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    12. Renelt, David, 1991. "Economic growth : a review of the theoretical and empirical literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 678, The World Bank.
    13. Jonathan Treussard, 2005. "On the Validity of Risk Measures over Time: Value-at-Risk, Conditional Tail Expectations and the Bodie-Merton-Perold Put," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-029, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    15. Hanck Christoph, 2009. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Research Memorandum 009, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    16. K. Suresh & Aviral Tiwari, 2013. "Are Shocks to Real Output Permanent or Transitory? Evidence from a Panel of “Asean” Per Capita GDP Data," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(2), pages 149-157, October.
    17. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    18. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1990. "International evidence on business cycle duration dependence," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 31, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    20. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    21. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Is OECD real per capita GDP trend or difference stationary? Evidence from panel unit root tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 673-689.
    22. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June.
    23. Crafts, N.F.R. & Mills, T.C., 1990. "British Economic Fluctuations, 1851-1913: A Perspective Based On Growth Theory," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 362, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    24. Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in the OECD Countries? Evidence from a Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 9635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 08 Apr 2006.

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