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Econometric modeling of technical change


  • Jin, Hui
  • Jorgenson, Dale W.


The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to econometric modeling of substitution and technical change. Substitution is determined by observable variables, such as prices of output and inputs and shares of inputs in the value of output. Our principal innovation is to represent the rate and biases of technical change by unobservable or latent variables. This representation is considerably more flexible than the constant time trends employed in the previous literature. An added advantage of the new representation is that the latent variables can be projected into the future, so that the rate and bias of technical change can be incorporated into econometric projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Hui & Jorgenson, Dale W., 2010. "Econometric modeling of technical change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 205-219, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:157:y:2010:i:2:p:205-219

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Binswanger, Hans P, 1974. "The Measurement of Technical Change Biases with Many Factors of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 964-976, December.
    2. Diewart, W Erwin & Morrison, Catherine J, 1986. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(383), pages 659-679, September.
    3. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels & Kevin Stiroh, 2007. "Industry Origins of the American Productivity Resurgence," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 229-252.
    4. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    5. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1998. "Growth, Volume 2: Energy, the Environment, and Economic Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 2, number 0262100746, July.
    6. Jaffe, Adam B. & Newell, Richard G. & Stavins, Robert N., 2003. "Chapter 11 Technological change and the environment," Handbook of Environmental Economics,in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 461-516 Elsevier.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.
    8. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1973. "Transcendental Logarithmic Production Frontiers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(1), pages 28-45, February.
    9. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    10. Binswanger, Hans P, 1974. "A Microeconomic Approach to Induced Innovation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(336), pages 940-958, December.
    11. Gallant, A. Ronald & Golub, Gene H., 1984. "Imposing curvature restrictions on flexible functional forms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-321, December.
    12. Dale Jorgenson & Masahiro Kuroda & Kazuyuki Motohashi (ed.), 2007. "Productivity in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12811.
    13. Jorgenson, Dale W., 1986. "Econometric methods for modeling producer behavior," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1841-1915 Elsevier.
    14. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Measuring Consumer Preferences and Estimating Demand Systems," MPRA Paper 12318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    16. Daron Acemoglu, 2007. "Equilibrium Bias of Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1371-1409, September.
    17. Jorgenson, Dale W., 2005. "Accounting for Growth in the Information Age," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 743-815 Elsevier.
    18. Feng, Guohua & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Productivity trends in U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from the NQ and AIM cost functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 281-311, January.
    19. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2006. "Time-varying parameter models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 21-26, April.
    20. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
    21. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2000. "Econometrics, Volume 1: Econometric Modeling of Producer Behavior," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100827, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peretto, Pietro F. & Valente, Simone, 2011. "Resources, innovation and growth in the global economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 387-399.
    2. Fullerton Don & Heutel Garth, 2011. "Analytical General Equilibrium Effects of Energy Policy on Output and Factor Prices," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Jorgenson Dale W & Goettle Richard & Ho Mun S & Slesnick Daniel T & Wilcoxen Peter J, 2011. "The Distributional Impact of Climate Policy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, April.
    4. Zhang, Wei & Alston, Julian M., 2013. "Factor Substitution and Technical Change in the U.S. Dairy Processing and Manufacturing Industry," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150707, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Zha, Donglan & Kavuri, Anil Savio & Si, Songjian, 2017. "Energy biased technology change: Focused on Chinese energy-intensive industries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1081-1089.
    6. A. Peyrache & A. N. Rambaldi, 2017. "Incorporating temporal and country heterogeneity in growth accounting—an application to EU-KLEMS," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 143-166, April.
    7. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Jin, Hui & Slesnick, Daniel T. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "An Econometric Approach to General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    8. Kristkova, Z. Smeets & Gardebroek, K. & van Dijk, M. & van Meijl, H., 2015. "The impact of R&D on factor-augmenting technical change- an empirical assessment at the sector level," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 230229, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Nitin Gupta, 2012. "Impact of Elasticities of Substitution, Technical Change, and Labour Regulations on Labour Welfare in Indian Industries," ASARC Working Papers 2012-10, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    10. Pietro F. Peretto & Simone Valente, 2010. "Resource Wealth, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 10/124, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    11. Johanna Vogel & Kurt Kratena & Kathrin Hranyai, 2015. "The Bias of Technological Change in Europe," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 98, WWWforEurope.
    12. Hertel Thomas, 2011. "Comment on "The Distributional Impact of Climate Policy"," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-6, April.
    13. Adetutu, Morakinyo O., 2014. "Energy efficiency and capital-energy substitutability: Evidence from four OPEC countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 363-370.
    14. repec:eee:energy:v:134:y:2017:i:c:p:951-961 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kutlu, Levent & Sickles, Robin C., 2012. "Estimation of market power in the presence of firm level inefficiencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 141-155.
    16. Kurt Kratena & Michael Wüger, 2012. "Technological Change and Energy Demand in Europe," WIFO Working Papers 427, WIFO.
    17. repec:eee:foreco:v:28:y:2017:i:c:p:49-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    19. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Goettle, Richard J. & Ho, Mun S. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "Energy, the Environment and US Economic Growth," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    20. Jorgenson, Dale W., 2016. "Econometric general equilibrium modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 436-447.


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