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An Econometric Approach to General Equilibrium Modeling

  • Jorgenson, Dale W.
  • Jin, Hui
  • Slesnick, Daniel T.
  • Wilcoxen, Peter J.

The first objective of this chapter is to present a new approach to econometric modeling of producer behavior. Our key contribution is to represent the rate and biases of technical change by unobservable or latent variables. We also divide the rate of technical change between components that are induced by changes in prices and those that are autonomous and not affected by prices. In our dataset, production is disaggregated into 35 separate commodities produced by one or more of the 35 industries making up the US economy. Our second objective is to present a new econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior. The model allocates full wealth among time periods for households distinguished by demographic characteristics, and determines the within-period demands for leisure, consumer goods and services. An important feature of our approach is the development of a closed-form representation of aggregate demand and labor supply that accounts for the heterogeneity in household behavior that is observed in micro-level data. Our model of producer behavior is the supply side of general equilibrium models of the US. The aggregate demand functions are important components of the demand side. These general equilibrium models are used to analyze the consequences of a broad spectrum of public policies. These applications are discussed in more detail in Chapter 8 of this Handbook. The third objective of the chapter is to demonstrate an important benefit of the econometric approach to parameterization. The parameter covariances obtained in the course of estimation can be used to construct confidence intervals for endogenous variables in general equilibrium models. Confidence intervals characterize the precision of modeling results more rigorously and systematically than traditional sensitivity analysis.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), 2012. "Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, 05.
  • This item is provided by Elsevier in its series Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling with number v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:1133-1212.
    Handle: RePEc:eee:hacchp:v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:1133-1212
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://store.elsevier.com/Handbook-of-Computable-General-Equilibrium-Modeling/isbn-9780444536341/

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    1. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December.
    2. Binswanger, Hans P, 1974. "A Microeconomic Approach to Induced Innovation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(336), pages 940-58, December.
    3. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197, June.
    4. Daron Acemoglu, 2001. "Directed Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 8287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," NBER Working Papers 5350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
    7. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    8. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200801, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2008.
    9. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-97, June.
    10. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Slesnick, Daniel T., 2008. "Consumption and labor supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 326-335, December.
    11. Diewart, W Erwin & Morrison, Catherine J, 1986. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(383), pages 659-79, September.
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    13. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Measuring Consumer Preferences and Estimating Demand Systems," MPRA Paper 12318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    15. Jin, Hui & Jorgenson, Dale W., 2010. "Econometric modeling of technical change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 205-219, August.
    16. Feng, Guohua & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Productivity trends in U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from the NQ and AIM cost functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 281-311, January.
    17. A. Ronald Gallant & Gene H. Golub, 1982. "Imposing Curvature Restrictions on Flexible Functional Forms," Discussion Papers 538, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    18. Jorgenson, Dale W., 2005. "Accounting for Growth in the Information Age," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 743-815 Elsevier.
    19. Slesnick, Daniel T., 2002. "Prices and Regional Variation in Welfare," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 446-468, May.
    20. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2006. "Time-varying parameter models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 21-26, April.
    21. Jaffe, Adam B. & Newell, Richard G. & Stavins, Robert N., 2003. "Chapter 11 Technological change and the environment," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 461-516 Elsevier.
    22. Blundell, Richard & Browning, Martin & Meghir, Costas, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80, January.
    23. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May.
    24. Browning, Martin & Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J., 1999. "Micro data and general equilibrium models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 543-633 Elsevier.
    25. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1998. "Growth, Volume 2: Energy, the Environment, and Economic Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 2, number 0262100746, June.
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    28. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
    29. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "Productivity, Volume 3: Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 3, number 0262101114, June.
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