IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v30y2008i4p603-618.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

U.S. Labor supply and demand in the long run

Author

Listed:
  • Jorgenson, Dale W.
  • Goettle, Richard J.
  • Ho, Mun S.
  • Slesnick, Daniel T.
  • Wilcoxen, Peter J.

Abstract

In this paper we model U.S. labor supply and demand over the next 25 years. Despite the anticipated aging of the population, moderate population growth will provide growing supplies of labor well into the 21st century. Improvements in labor quality due to greater education and experience will also continue for some time, but will eventually disappear. Productivity growth for the U.S. economy will be below long-term historical averages, but labor-using technical change will be a stimulus to the growth of labor demand. Year-to-year changes in economic activity will be primarily the consequence of capital accumulation. However, the driving forces of economic growth over the long term will be demography and technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorgenson, Dale W. & Goettle, Richard J. & Ho, Mun S. & Slesnick, Daniel T. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2008. "U.S. Labor supply and demand in the long run," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 603-618.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:603-618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(08)00036-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels & Kevin Stiroh, 2007. "Industry Origins of the American Productivity Resurgence," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 229-252.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1998. "Growth, Volume 2: Energy, the Environment, and Economic Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 2, number 0262100746, December.
    3. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2009. "A New Architecture For The U.S. National Accounts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, March.
    4. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "Productivity, Volume 3: Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 3, number 0262101114, December.
    5. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld, 2006. "Blueprint for Expanded and Integrated US Accounts: Review, Assessment, and Next Steps," NBER Chapters, in: A New Architecture for the US National Accounts, pages 13-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Hui & Jorgenson, Dale W., 2010. "Econometric modeling of technical change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 205-219, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2012. "The World KLEMS Initiative," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 24, pages 5-19, Fall.
    2. Jalava, Jukka & Kavonius, Ilja Kristian, 2008. "The effect of durable goods and ICT on euro area productivity growth?," Working Paper Series 940, European Central Bank.
    3. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    4. Bert M. Balk, 2010. "An Assumption‐Free Framework For Measuring Productivity Change," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 224-256, June.
    5. Barbara M. Fraumeni & Michael S. Christian, 2019. "Accumulation of Human and Market Capital in the United States, 1975-2012: An Analysis by Gender," NBER Working Papers 25864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mariela Dal Borgo & Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Annarosa Pesole, 2013. "Productivity and Growth in UK Industries: An Intangible Investment Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 806-834, December.
    7. Greenstein, Shane & Nagle, Frank, 2014. "Digital dark matter and the economic contribution of Apache," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 623-631.
    8. Daniel Sichel & Eric von Hippel, 2021. "Household Innovation and R&D: Bigger than You Think," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(3), pages 639-658, September.
    9. Candel Haug, Katharina & Kretschmer, Tobias & Strobel, Thomas, 2016. "Cloud adaptiveness within industry sectors – Measurement and observations," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 291-306.
    10. Bishwanath Goldar & K. L. Krishna & Suresh Chand Aggarwal & Deb Kusum Das & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Pilu Chandra Das, 2017. "Productivity growth in India since the 1980s: the KLEMS approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 37-71, December.
    11. L. Rachel Ngai & Roberto M. Samaniego, 2006. "An R&D-Based Model of Multi-Sector Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0762, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Erumban, Abdul Azeez & Das, Deb Kusum & Aggarwal, Suresh & Das, Pilu Chandra, 2019. "Structural change and economic growth in India," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 186-202.
    13. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Vu, Khuong M., 2010. "Potential growth of the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 615-631, September.
    14. Michael Peneder & Martin Falk & Werner Hölzl & Serguei Kaniovski & Kurt Kratena, 2006. "Teilstudie 3: Wachstum, Strukturwandel und Produktivität. Disaggregierte Wachstumsbeiträge für Österreich von 1990 bis 2004," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27442, Juni.
    15. Fraumeni, Barbara M. & Christian, Michael S., 2019. "Accumulation of Human and Market Capital in the United States, 1975-2012: An Analysis by Gender," IZA Discussion Papers 12364, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Jon D. Samuels, 2012. "Information Technology and US Productivity Growth: Evidence from a Prototype Industry Production Account," Chapters, in: Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Michael J. Harper & Brent R. Moulton & Steven Rosenthal & David B. Wasshausen, 2009. "Integrated GDP-Productivity Accounts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 74-79, May.
    18. Peter ven de Ven & Anne Harrison & Barbara Fraumeni & Carol Corrado & Jonathan Haskel & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2017. "Public Intangibles: The Public Sector and Economic Growth in the SNA," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 355-380, December.
    19. Erumban, Abdul A. & Das, Deb Kusum, 2016. "Information and communication technology and economic growth in India," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 412-431.
    20. Taehyoung Cho & Junghoon Kim & Paul Schreyer, 2015. "Measuring the evolution of Korea’s material living standards 1980–2012," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 157-173, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:603-618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.