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Potential growth of the world economy

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  • Jorgenson, Dale W.
  • Vu, Khuong M.

Abstract

This paper introduces a new framework for projecting potential growth of the world economy, emphasizing the contribution of information technology. We first analyze the sources of economic growth for the world economy, seven regions, and fourteen major economies during four periods--1989-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2004, and 2004-2008. The contribution of investment in information technology has increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. We then project the potential growth rates of labor productivity and GDP for 122 economies over the ten-year period 2009-2019. Relative to historical growth for 1989-2008, we project lower growth rates for productivity and GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorgenson, Dale W. & Vu, Khuong M., 2010. "Potential growth of the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 615-631, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:5:p:615-631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld, 2009. "Implementation of a New Architecture for the US National Accounts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 64-68, May.
    3. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2009. "A New Architecture For The U.S. National Accounts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, March.
    4. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld, 2006. "Blueprint for Expanded and Integrated U.S. Accounts: Review, Assessment, and Next Steps," NBER Chapters,in: A New Architecture for the U.S. National Accounts, pages 13-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael J. Harper & Brent R. Moulton & Steven Rosenthal & David B. Wasshausen, 2009. "Integrated GDP-Productivity Accounts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 74-79, May.
    6. Jorgenson, Dale W., 1966. "The Embodiment Hypothesis," Scholarly Articles 3403063, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    8. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
    9. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1966. "The Embodiment Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 1-1.
    10. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367.
    11. Angus Maddison, 2009. "Measuring The Economic Performance Of Transition Economies: Some Lessons From Chinese Experience," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(s1), pages 423-441, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Vu, Khuong M., 2011. "The rise of developing Asia and the new economic order," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 698-716, September.
    2. Cui, Cathy Xin & Ha, Soo Jung & Hanley, Nicholas & McGregor, Peter G & Turner, Karen & Yin, Ya Ping, 2011. "Productivity Growth, Decoupling and Pollution Leakage," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2011-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    3. Vu, Khuong M., 2013. "Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 284-300.
    4. Du, Julan & Fang, Hongsheng & Jin, Xiangrong, 2014. "The “growth-first strategy” and the imbalance between consumption and investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 441-458.
    5. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    6. Łukasz Arendt, 2016. "Paradoks Solowa i determinanty wdrożenia technologii informacyjnych i telekomunikacyjnych," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 29-53.
    7. Torre Cepeda, Leonardo E. & Ramos, Luis Fernando Colunga, 2015. "Patterns of TFP growth in Mexico: 1991–2011," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 398-420.
    8. Asteris, Michael & Collins, Alan & Jones, Dylan F., 2012. "Container port infrastructure in north-west Europe: Policy-level modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 312-324.
    9. Justin Yifu Lin & Fan Zhang, 2015. "Sustaining Growth of the People's Republic of China," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 32(1), pages 31-48, March.
    10. Chakravarty, Sugato & Pylypiv, Mariya I., 2015. "The Role of Subsidization and Organizational Status on Microfinance Borrower Repayment Rates," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 737-748.
    11. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:3:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Torre Cepeda Leonardo E. & Colunga Ramos Luis Fernando, 2015. "Patterns of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Mexico: 1991-2011," Working Papers 2015-24, Banco de México.

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