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Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions

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  • Bełej Mirosław

    (Ph.D. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn The Faculty of Geodesy and Land Management Department of Land Management and Regional Development Prawocheńskiego 15, 10-720 Olsztyn, Poland)

  • Kulesza Sławomir

    (Ph.D. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics Chair of Relativistic Physics Słoneczna 54, 10-710 Olsztyn, Poland)

Abstract

The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

Suggested Citation

  • Bełej Mirosław & Kulesza Sławomir, 2012. "Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 61-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:foeste:v:11:y:2012:i:1:p:61-72:n:3
    DOI: 10.2478/v10031-012-0008-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grasman, Raoul & van der Maas, Han L.J. & Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, 2009. "Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 32(i08).
    2. Yunjong Eo & Chang-Jin Kim, 2016. "Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Postwar Booms or Recessions All Alike?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 940-949, December.
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