IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Long Memory in Import and Export Price Inflation and Persistence of Shocks to the Terms of Trade

  • G. K. Randolph TAN
Registered author(s):

    Long memory models have been successfully used to investigate the dynamic time-series behavior of inflation rates based on the CPI and WPI. However, almost no attention has been paid to import and export price inflation, nor to the terms of trade which they make up. This article investigates the dynamics of the terms of trade by focusing first on the time-series characteristics of these price series. It tests for long memory in export and import price inflation series and estimates the fractional differencing parameter using a number of approaches. To give a better idea of the degree of persistence of each series, estimates of the impulse responses are computed which take into account possible fractional integration. The dynamic behavior in changes in the terms of trade is then related to the long memory behavior of the import and export price inflation series. In a sample of eleven economies for which data is available, evidence of long memory in import and export price inflation occurs in about half the cases. Granger (1980) points out that the natural occurrence of long memory may be attributed to aggregation in macroeconomic series. Our analysis provides evidence of an alternative explanation, namely that long-memory may result from the differencing of a linear relationship between non-cointegrating variables. Specifically, the results from our analysis of eleven economies reveal that shocks to the terms of trade will persist if the constituent price inflation series are not cointegrated

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://repec.org/esFEAM04/up.790.1080743380.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings with number 732.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:732
    Contact details of provider: Phone: 1 212 998 3820
    Fax: 1 212 995 4487
    Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    2. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    3. Lobato, Ignacio N & Robinson, Peter M, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 475-95, July.
    4. Lee, D. & Schmidt, P., 1993. "On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against Fractionally-Integrated Alternatives," Papers 9111, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    5. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 43-65, February.
    6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
    7. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Ooms, M. & Bos, C.S., 1998. "Long memory and level shifts: re-analysing inflation rates," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9811, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
    9. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    10. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
    11. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-86, June.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
    13. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    14. Paul Cashin & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2000. "Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa; Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?," IMF Working Papers 00/72, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Ooms, Marius & Hassler, Uwe, 1997. "On the effect of seasonal adjustment on the log-periodogram regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 135-141, October.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Persson, Anna & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1999. "The Net Barter Terms Of Trade : A Smooth Transition Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 335, Stockholm School of Economics.
    18. Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March.
    19. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
    20. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.