Long Memory in Import and Export Price Inflation and Persistence of Shocks to the Terms of Trade
Long memory models have been successfully used to investigate the dynamic time-series behavior of inflation rates based on the CPI and WPI. However, almost no attention has been paid to import and export price inflation, nor to the terms of trade which they make up. This article investigates the dynamics of the terms of trade by focusing first on the time-series characteristics of these price series. It tests for long memory in export and import price inflation series and estimates the fractional differencing parameter using a number of approaches. To give a better idea of the degree of persistence of each series, estimates of the impulse responses are computed which take into account possible fractional integration. The dynamic behavior in changes in the terms of trade is then related to the long memory behavior of the import and export price inflation series. In a sample of eleven economies for which data is available, evidence of long memory in import and export price inflation occurs in about half the cases. Granger (1980) points out that the natural occurrence of long memory may be attributed to aggregation in macroeconomic series. Our analysis provides evidence of an alternative explanation, namely that long-memory may result from the differencing of a linear relationship between non-cointegrating variables. Specifically, the results from our analysis of eleven economies reveal that shocks to the terms of trade will persist if the constituent price inflation series are not cointegrated
|Date of creation:||11 Aug 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Ooms, M. & Bos, C.S., 1998.
"Long memory and level shifts: re-analysing inflation rates,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 9811, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms & Charles S. Bos, 1999. "Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 427-449.
- Charles S. Bos & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 1998. "Long Memory and Level Shifts: Re-Analyzing Inflation Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-039/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-165, January.
- Ooms, Marius & Hassler, Uwe, 1997. "On the effect of seasonal adjustment on the log-periodogram regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 135-141, October.
- Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985.
"Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 43-65, February.
- Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Persson, Anna & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1999.
"The Net Barter Terms Of Trade : A Smooth Transition Approach,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
335, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1981.
"Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?,"
NBER Working Papers
0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Pattillo, Catherine, 2004.
"Terms of trade shocks in Africa: are they short-lived or long-lived?,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 727-744, April.
- Paul Cashin & Catherine A Pattillo, 2000. "Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa; Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?," IMF Working Papers 00/72, International Monetary Fund.
- Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-486, June.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015.
"The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
- Lee, D. & Schmidt, P., 1993.
"On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against Fractionally-Integrated Alternatives,"
9111, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
- Ignacio N. Lobato & Peter M. Robinson, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 475-495.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.