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Testing for unit roots using economics

  • Rómulo Chumacero

This paper considers the economic implications of having a unit root (UR) on the stochastic process of variables such as consumption or GDP. Using a variety of models, we develop indirect tests for unit roots based on sharp distinctions that should arise when the scale variable is difference stationary (DS) or trend stationary (TS). We show that these tests do not feature the undesirable size-power trade-off that characterizes traditional UR tests and apply them to a range of countries.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 102.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:102
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  1. Campbell, John Y, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803, November.
  2. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  3. Philip Rothman, . "More Uncertainty About the Unit Root in U.S. Real GNP," Working Papers 9616, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  4. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  5. Nelson, C-R & Murray, C-J, 1997. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 97-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  6. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  9. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  11. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Solving asset pricing models with Gaussian shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 329-340, March.
  12. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  15. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  17. Paul Lau, Sau-Him, 1999. "I(0) In, integration and cointegration out:: Time series properties of endogenous growth models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-24, November.
  18. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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