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On the determinants of the Chilean Economic Growth

  • Rómulo A. Chumacero
  • J. Rodrigo Fuentes

This paper presents several methodologies for understanding the Chilean growth process. By using univariate time series representations, we find that the Chilean data is more consistent with exogenous than with endogenous growth models. Growth accounting exercises show that the mild growth rates of the sixties are mainly due to the accumulation of human and physical capital, while the booms of the mid seventies and the one from 1985 until 1998 are mainly due to TFP growth. We also find that among the most important determinants of the evolution of TFP are the evolution of terms of trade, improvements on the quality of capital, and the presence of distortions. In fact, distortions do not only eliminate the positive effects of improvements on the quality of capital, but also precede the evolution of technology shocks and increase their volatility. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates the relative price of investment with respect to consumption goods, terms of tra de, and distortionary taxes is able to successfully replicate the impulse-response functions found on the data. This exercise suggests that distortions play a key role in explaining the growth dynamics of the Chilean experience.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 134.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:134
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  1. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Documentos de Trabajo 110, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  2. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
  3. Paul Lau, Sau-Him, 1999. "I(0) In, integration and cointegration out:: Time series properties of endogenous growth models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-24, November.
  4. Rómulo Chumacero, 2000. "Se Busca una Raíz Unitaria: Evidencia para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 86, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  6. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
  7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  8. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  9. José Díaz & Rolf Lüders & Gert Wagner, . "Economía Chilena 1810-1995: Evolución Cuantitativa del Producto Total y Sectorial," Documentos de Trabajo 186, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  10. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Data Appendix to A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Technical Appendices bergoeing02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  11. José Jofre & Rolf Lüders & Gert Wagner, . "Economía Chilena 1810-1995. Cuentas Fiscales," Documentos de Trabajo 188, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  12. Juan Braun-Llona & Matías Braun-Llona & Ignacio Briones & José Díaz & Rolf Lüders & Gert Wagner, . "Economía Chilena 1810-1995. Estadísticas Históricas," Documentos de Trabajo 187, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  13. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, March.
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