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Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation

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  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

This paper presents a single, integrated model to explain the persistence and volatility characteristics of the U.S. inflation time series. Policymaker learning about a Markov-switching natural rate of unemployment in a neoclassical Phillips curve model with time-varying preferences produces inflation persistence, volatility clustering, and mean/variance correlation. The interaction between the policymaker?s preferences and the Phillips curve generates the first and last results. Policymaker learning produces clusters of volatility as the monetary authority resets the learning algorithm whenever a shock to the Phillips curve occurs. Simulations using parameters estimated via Gibbs sampling confirms the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Owyang, 2001. "Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Nov.), pages 41-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2001:i:nov.:p:41-52:n:v.83no.6
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    3. Michael Dueker & Laura E Jackson & Michael T Owyang & Martin Sola, 2023. "A time-varying threshold STAR model with applications," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2, pages 63-98.
    4. Jim Granato & Melody Lo & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2006. "Testing Monetary Policy Intentions in Open Economies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 730-746, January.
    5. Dave, Chetan & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Equilibrium indeterminacy and sunspot tales," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Ewing, Bradley T. & Seyfried, William L, 2003. "Modeling The Philips Curve: A Time-Varying Volatility Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    7. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Wang, Miao & Wong, M.C. Sunny, 2005. "Learning dynamics in monetary policy: The robustness of an aggressive inflation stabilizing policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 143-151, March.

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