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Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation

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  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

This paper presents a single, integrated model to explain the persistence and volatility characteristics of the U.S. inflation time series. Policymaker learning about a Markov-switching natural rate of unemployment in a neoclassical Phillips curve model with time-varying preferences produces inflation persistence, volatility clustering, and mean/variance correlation. The interaction between the policymaker’s preferences and the Phillips curve generates the first and last results. Policymaker learning produces clusters of volatility as the monetary authority resets the learning algorithm whenever a shock to the Phillips curve occurs. Simulations using parameters estimated via Gibbs sampling confirms the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Owyang, 2001. "Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov., pages 41-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2001:i:nov.:p:41-52:n:v.83no.6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-184, May.
    2. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    3. Ewing, Bradley T. & Seyfried, William L, 2003. "Modeling The Philips Curve: A Time-Varying Volatility Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    4. Michael T. Owyang & Abbigail J. Chiodo, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Michael J. Dueker & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "A time-varying threshold STAR model of unemployment and the natural rate," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Wang, Miao & Wong, M.C. Sunny, 2005. "Learning dynamics in monetary policy: The robustness of an aggressive inflation stabilizing policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 143-151, March.

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