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The Time-Varying-Parameter Model As An Alternative To Arch For Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case Of The Lucas Hypothesis

Author

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  • NELSON, C.R.
  • KIM, C-J.

Abstract

The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas hypothesis (1973) in a times series context is the estimation of the variance conditional on past information. The ARCH model, proposed by Engle (1982), is one way of specifying the conditional variance. But the assumption underlying the ARCH specification is ad-hoc. The existence of ARCH can sometimes be interpreted as evidence of misspecification. Under the assumption that a monetary policy regime is continuously changing, a time-varying-parameter (TVP) model is proposed for the monetary growth function. Based on Kalman filtering estimation of recursive forcast errors and their conditional variances, the Lucas hypothesis is tested for the U.S. economy (1964.1 - 1985.4) using monetary growth as an aggregate demand variable. The Lucas hypothesis is rejected in favor of Friedman's (1977) hypothesis: the conditional variance of monetary growth affects real output directly, not through the coefficients on the forcast error term in the Lucas-type output equation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nelson, C.R. & Kim, C-J., 1988. "The Time-Varying-Parameter Model As An Alternative To Arch For Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case Of The Lucas Hypothesis," Working Papers 88-10, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:88-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Vidal Alejandro, Pavel & Fundora Fernández, Annia, 2008. "Trade-growth relationship in Cuba: estimation using the Kalman filter," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    2. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    3. Marwan Elkhoury, 2005. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model of A Monetary Policy Rule for Switzerland. The Case of the Lucas and Friedman Hypothesis," IHEID Working Papers 01-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Christian Gayer & Bertrand Marc, 2018. "A ‘New Modesty’? Level Shifts in Survey Data and the Decreasing Trend of ‘Normal’ Growth," European Economy - Discussion Papers 083, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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