A Time Series Model of Multiple Structural changes in Level, Trend and Variance
We consider a deterministically trending dynamic time series model in which multiple changes in level, trend and error variance are modeled explicitly and the number but not the timing of the changes are known. Estimation of the model is made possible by the use of the Gibbs sampler. The determination of the number of structural breaks and the form of structural change is considered as a problem of model selection and we compare the use of marginal likelihoods, posterior odds ratios and Schwarz' BIC model selection criterion to select the most appropriate model from the data. We evaluate the efficacy of the Bayesian approach using a small Monte Carlo experiment. As empirical examples, we investigate structural changes in the U.S. ex-post real interest rate and in a long time series of U.S. GDP.
|Date of creation:||24 Mar 1999|
|Date of revision:||31 Mar 1999|
|Note:||Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat; prepared on PC using TeX; to print on Postscript; pages: 13 ; figures: included|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996.
"The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate,"
Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington
96-14, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
- Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994.
"The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS,"
Research Working Paper
94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9903002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.