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Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Breaks

  • Sugita, Katsuhiro
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    This paper considers a vector autoregressive model or a vector error correction model with multiple structural breaks in any subset of parameters, using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation technique. The number of structural breaks is determined as a sort of model selection by the posterior odds. For a cointegrated model, cointegrating rank is also allowed to change with breaks. Bayesian approach by Strachan (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 21 (2003) 185) and Strachan and Inder (Journal of Econometrics 123 (2004) 307) are applied to estimate the cointegrating vectors. As empirical examples, we investigate structural changes in the predictive power of the yield curve and the US term structure of interest rates. We find strong evidence of three structural changes in both applications.

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    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/16988/1/070econDP06-14.pdf
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    Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Papers with number 2006-14.

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    Length: 58 p.
    Date of creation: Nov 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hit:econdp:2006-14
    Contact details of provider: Phone: +81-42-580-8000
    Web page: http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/

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    2. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    3. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
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    34. Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
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