IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i6p3650-d775542.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Does Population Shrinkage Affect Economic Resilience? A Case Study of Resource-Based Cities in Northeast China

Author

Listed:
  • Mingke Xie

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Zhangxian Feng

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Chenggu Li

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

Abstract

By constructing an index system, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of the economic resilience of 20 resource-based cities in northeast China after the financial crisis in 2008. On this basis, a mediation model was introduced to explore the mechanism of population shrinkage affecting economic resilience. The results show that: (a) from 2009 to 2019, the trend of the economic resilience of resource-based cities in northeast China was “ascending–descending–stable”. As time went by, the spatial difference of the economic resilience of resource-based cities gradually became obvious, indicating that the number of medium- and high-class cities was increasing. (b) By applying a correlation analysis, it was found that both a significant weak correlation and medium correlation existed between population shrinkage and economic resilience during the periods of 2011–2019 and 2013–2019. (c) Six mediation factors, namely industrial output, population consumption, resource dependence, urban innovation, cultural construction and environment quality, were chosen to apply the mediation model of population shrinkage affecting economic resilience. Among them, industrial output, population consumption, urban innovation, and cultural construction exerted a partial mediation effect on the process of population shrinkage affecting economic resilience, while the meditation effects of resource dependence and environment quality were not significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingke Xie & Zhangxian Feng & Chenggu Li, 2022. "How Does Population Shrinkage Affect Economic Resilience? A Case Study of Resource-Based Cities in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:6:p:3650-:d:775542
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/6/3650/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/6/3650/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan Reft, 2013. "Sunburnt cities: the great recession, depopulation, and urban planning in the American Sunbelt," Planning Perspectives, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 506-508, July.
    2. Dieter F. Kogler & Jürgen Essletzbichler & David L. Rigby, 2017. "The evolution of specialization in the EU15 knowledge space," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 345-373.
    3. Di Maria, Corrado & Lazarova, Emiliya A., 2012. "Migration, Human Capital Formation, and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 938-955.
    4. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1999. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 317-334, August.
    5. Dawley, Stuart & Pike, Andy & Tomaney, John, 2010. "Towards the resilient region?: policy activism and peripheral region development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33523, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Ron Boschma, 2015. "Towards an Evolutionary Perspective on Regional Resilience," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 733-751, May.
    7. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    8. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    10. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    11. Weilong Wang & Jianlong Wang & Shaersaikai Wulaer & Bing Chen & Xiaodong Yang, 2021. "The Effect of Innovative Entrepreneurial Vitality on Economic Resilience Based on a Spatial Perspective: Economic Policy Uncertainty as a Moderating Variable," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2015. "Regional resilience across Europe: on urbanisation and the initial impact of the Great Recession," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 225-240.
    13. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 54-70, March.
    14. Alexandru Pavel & Bogdan Andrei Moldovan & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp, 2020. "Urban or Rural: Does It Make A Difference for Economic Resilience? A Modelling Study on Economic and Cultural Geography in Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-39, May.
    15. Jin-Wook Lee, 2021. "Evaluating Ways to Form a Sense of Community in a Shrinking City: The Case of the Media Culture Center, Seocheon, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, March.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    17. Dieter Rink & Chris Couch & Annegret Haase & Robert Krzysztofik & Bogdan Nadolu & Petr Rumpel, 2014. "The governance of urban shrinkage in cities of post-socialist Europe: policies, strategies and actors," Urban Research & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 258-277, September.
    18. Andrea Sarzynski & Thomas J. Vicino, 2019. "Shrinking Suburbs: Analyzing the Decline of American Suburban Spaces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    19. Ivonne Audirac & Emmanuèle Cunningham‐Sabot & Sylvie Fol & Sergio Torres Moraes, 2012. "Declining Suburbs in Europe and Latin America," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 226-244, March.
    20. Silvia Rocchetta & Andrea Mina, 2019. "Technological coherence and the adaptive resilience of regional economies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(10), pages 1421-1434, October.
    21. Shan Man & Xiangli Wu & Yongchun Yang & Qingmin Meng & Xiuliang Yuan, 2021. "An Assessment Approach to Urban Economic Resilience of the Rust Belt in China," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-16, September.
    22. Christoph Hauser & Gottfried Tappeiner & Janette Walde, 2007. "The Learning Region: The Impact of Social Capital and Weak Ties on Innovation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 75-88.
    23. Anja B. Nelle, 2016. "Tackling human capital loss in shrinking cities: urban development and secondary school improvement in Eastern Germany," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 865-883, May.
    24. Chris Couch & Matthew Cocks, 2013. "Housing Vacancy and the Shrinking City: Trends and Policies in the UK and the City of Liverpool," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 499-519, April.
    25. Ron Martin, 2012. "Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
    26. Asea, Patrick K. & Lahiri, Amartya, 1999. "The precious bane," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(5-6), pages 823-849, April.
    27. David S. Reher, 2007. "Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 189-207, June.
    28. Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Makoto Kondo & Rikiya Matsukura, 2010. "Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 207-227, May.
    29. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
    30. Elissaios Papyrakis, 2011. "Resource windfalls, innovation, and growth," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 301-312.
    31. Elissaios Papyrakis, 2011. "Resource windfalls, innovation, and growth," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 301-312, December.
    32. Zhenshan Yang & Michael Dunford, 2018. "City shrinkage in China: scalar processes of urban and hukou population losses," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1111-1121, August.
    33. Robert Huggins & Piers Thompson, 2015. "Local entrepreneurial resilience and culture: the role of social values in fostering economic recovery," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 313-330.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu Liu & Yuxin Meng & Desheng Wu & Qiying Ran & Jianhong Cao & Zilian Liu, 2023. "Impact of haze pollution and human capital on economic resilience: evidence from prefecture-level cities in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13429-13449, November.
    2. Mingzhi Zhang & Xiangyu Zhou & Chao Chen & Jianxu Liu & Jiaxi Li & Fuying Huan & Bowen Wang, 2023. "Enterprise Spatial Agglomeration and Economic Growth in Northeast China: Policy Implications for Uneven to Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Huang, Yan & Ma, Liang & Cao, Jason, 2023. "Exploring spatial heterogeneity in the high-speed rail impact on air quality," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    4. Guozhu Li & Meichen Liu, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience: Evidence from Resource-Based Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Shangkun Yu & Ruili Wang & Xuejie Zhang & Yi Miao & Chengxin Wang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Shrinkage and Its Impact on Urban Resilience in Three Provinces of Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, July.
    6. Huiping Wang & Qi Ge, 2023. "Spatial association network of economic resilience and its influencing factors: evidence from 31 Chinese provinces," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gergő Tóth & Zoltán Elekes & Adam Whittle & Changjun Lee & Dieter F. Kogler, 2022. "Technology Network Structure Conditions the Economic Resilience of Regions," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 98(4), pages 355-378, August.
    2. Ugo Fratesi & Giovanni Perucca, 2018. "Territorial capital and the resilience of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 241-264, March.
    3. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley & Peter Tyler, 2015. "Local growth evolutions: recession, resilience and recovery," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 141-148.
    4. Riccardo Cappelli & Fabio Montobbio & Andrea Morrison, 2021. "Unemployment resistance across EU regions: the role of technological and human capital," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 147-178, January.
    5. Huiping Wang & Qi Ge, 2023. "Spatial association network of economic resilience and its influencing factors: evidence from 31 Chinese provinces," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Pengyang Zhang & Yanmei Huang & Sipei Pan & Wanxu Chen & Hui Zhong & Ning Xu & Mingxing Zhong, 2022. "Does Resilience Exist in China’s Tourism Economy? From the Perspectives of Resistance and Recoverability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Tiba, Sofien & Frikha, Mohamed, 2019. "The controversy of the resource curse and the environment in the SDGs background: The African context," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 437-452.
    8. Haojun Wang & Xiao Su & Jun M. Liu, 2023. "The Spatial Spillover Effect of Logistics and Manufacturing Co-Agglomeration on Regional Economic Resilience: Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Andrea Coveri & Antonello Zanfei, 2023. "The virtues and limits of specialization in global value chains: analysis and policy implications," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(1), pages 73-90, March.
    10. Giulio Cainelli & Roberto Ganau & Marco Modica, 2019. "Industrial relatedness and regional resilience in the European Union," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 755-778, April.
    11. Tao Zhao & Jinwei Huo & Degang Yang & Xinhuan Zhang & Danni Lu & Mingjie Cui & Rongqian Lu & Yaning Chen, 2022. "Study on the Spatial Differentiation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China’s Economic Resilience under Different Shocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Lisa Gianmoena & Vicente Rios, 2018. "The Determinants of Resilience in European Regions During the Great Recession: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Discussion Papers 2018/235, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Olena Khlystova & Yelena Kalyuzhnova, 2023. "The impact of the creative industries and digitalization on regional resilience and productive entrepreneurship," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 1654-1695, October.
    14. Giuseppe Terzo, 2021. "Social capital, social economy and economic resilience of Italian provinces," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(5), pages 1113-1135, October.
    15. Qiao Li & Haoming Guan & Zhangxian Feng & Wang Long, 2022. "Regional Economic Resilience in the Central-Cities and Outer-Suburbs of Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-13, February.
    16. Silvia Rocchetta & Andrea Mina & Changjun Lee & Dieter F Kogler, 2022. "Technological knowledge spaces and the resilience of European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 27-51.
    17. Roberto Antonietti & Ron Boschma, 2021. "Social capital, resilience, and regional diversification in Italy [Social capital, innovation and growth: evidence from Europe]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(3), pages 762-777.
    18. A D Adom, 2016. "Resilience of developing countries to shocks: Case study of WAEMU countries with SUR and VAR Approaches," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 105-138, September.
    19. Giulio Cainelli & Roberto Ganau & Marco Modica, 2019. "Does related variety affect regional resilience? New evidence from Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 657-680, June.
    20. Paolo Rizzi & Paola Graziano & Antonio Dallara, 2018. "A capacity approach to territorial resilience: the case of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 285-328, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:6:p:3650-:d:775542. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.