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Asset Allocation in Transition Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Rockinger

    (School of Economics and Business Administration - UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne)

  • Eric Jondeau

Abstract

Designing an investment strategy in transition economies is a difficult task, because stock markets opened through time, time series are short, and there is little guidance how to obtain expected returns and covariance matrices necessary for mean-variance asset allocation. Moments of market returns can be expected to be time varying as structural changes occur in nascent market economies. We develop an ad-hoc optimal asset-allocation strategy with a flavor of Bayesian learning adapted to these various characteristics. Since an extreme event often heralds a new state of the economy, we re-initialize learning when unlikely returns materialize. By considering a Cornell benchmark, we show the usefulness of our strategy for certain types of re-initializations. Our model can also be used in situations when new industries emerge or when companies are subject toimportant restructuring.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Rockinger & Eric Jondeau, 2002. "Asset Allocation in Transition Economies," Working Papers hal-00597773, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00597773
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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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