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Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation

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  • Filer, Randall K
  • Hanousek, Jan
  • Lichard, Tomáš

Abstract

We develop an estimator of unreported income that relies on much more flexible identifying assumptions than those underlying previous estimators of the shadow economy using household-level data. Assuming only that evading households have a higher consumption-income gap than non-evaders in surveys, an endogenous switching model with unknown sample separation enables the estimation of both the probability of hiding income and the expected amount of unreported income for each household. Using data from Czech and Slovak household budget surveys, we find the size of the shadow economy to be substantially larger than estimated using other techniques. These results are robust under a number of alternative specifications.

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  • Filer, Randall K & Hanousek, Jan & Lichard, Tomáš, 2015. "Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10483
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    Cited by:

    1. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek & Tomáš Lichard & Karine Torosyan, 2019. "‘Flattening’ tax evasion? : Evidence from the post‐communist natural experiment," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 27(1), pages 223-246, January.
    2. Konrad Dymarski, 2013. "Segmentacja populacji a szacowany rozmiar szarej strefy," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 133-155.
    3. Piotr Dybka & Michał Kowalczuk & Bartosz Olesiński & Andrzej Torój & Marek Rozkrut, 2019. "Currency demand and MIMIC models: towards a structured hybrid method of measuring the shadow economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 4-40, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption-income gap; tax evasion; underreporting;

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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