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Implausible Large Differences in the Sizes of Underground Economies in Highly Developed European Countries? A Comparison of Different Estimation Methods

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  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

In this paper, first, the MIMIC estimation method is described and criticized and due to a double counting problem a correction is suggested. Second, the measurement methods used for National Accounts Statistics – the discrepancy method and two new micro survey methods – are described and a third, a micro method, using a combination of company manager surveys and their knowledge to calibrate the size of the shadow economy in firms, is presented, too. Third, a detailed comparison of the four micro estimation methods with the MIMIC and the corrected MIMIC method are presented. One major result is that the corrected MIMIC method, especially, comes quite close to various types of lately developed micro survey methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "Implausible Large Differences in the Sizes of Underground Economies in Highly Developed European Countries? A Comparison of Different Estimation Methods," CESifo Working Paper Series 6522, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6522
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    2. Marcus Ruge, 2010. "Determinants and Size of the Shadow Economy - A Structural Equation Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 511-523.
    3. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    5. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    6. Putniņš, Tālis J. & Sauka, Arnis, 2015. "Measuring the shadow economy using company managers," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 471-490.
    7. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    8. Frey, Bruno S & Weck, Hannelore, 1983. "Estimating the Shadow Economy: A 'Naive' Approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 23-44, March.
    9. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    10. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894.
    11. Tomas Lichard & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2012. "Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 438, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    12. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984–2006," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 510-543, September.
    13. Hanousek, Jan & Lichard, Tomáš & Torosyan, Karine, 2016. "‘Flattening’ the Tax Evasion: Evidence from the Post-Communist Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Leandro Medina & Mr. Andrew W Jonelis & Mehmet Cangul, 2017. "The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa: Size and Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2017/156, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Claudio Quintano & Paolo Mazzocchi, 2010. "Some Alternative Estimates of Underground Economies in 12 New EU Member States," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 611-628.
    16. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984-2006," Working Papers 1303, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    17. Edgar L. Feige, 1979. "How Big Is the Irregular Economy?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 5-13, November.
    18. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    19. Schneider, Friedrich G., 2007. "Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: New Estimates for 145 Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-66.
    20. Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Comment on Feige's Paper "Reflections on the Meaning and Measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the 'Shadow Economy'?"," CESifo Working Paper Series 5818, CESifo.
    21. Feige, Edgar L., 2016. "Professor Schneider's Shadow Economy:What do we really know? A Rejoinder," MPRA Paper 71903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    23. Colin C. Williams & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Measuring the Global Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16551.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nezhyvenko, O., 2019. "Indirect or Macroeconomic Methods in Measuring the Informal Economy," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 8(4), pages 201-215, December.
    2. Berg, Lyudmila N., 2020. "Systematization of the EAEU legal sources in the field of regulation of the service market in science," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 32(4), pages 83-93.
    3. Oksana Nezhyvenko, 2018. "Informal Employment in Ukraine and European Union Transition Countries," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-03 edited by Philippe Adair, February.
    4. Dagmara Nikulin & Ewa Lechman, 2021. "Introductory Words," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Shadow Economy in Poland, chapter 0, pages 1-10, Springer.
    5. Dagmara Nikulin & Ewa Lechman, 2021. "Shadow Economy in Poland: Results of the Survey," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Shadow Economy in Poland, chapter 0, pages 49-65, Springer.
    6. Lizina, Olga M., 2020. "State of shadow economic activity in Russian regions," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 32(4), pages 73-82.
    7. Mykolas Navickas & Vytautas JuÅ¡Ä ius & Valentinas Navickas, 2019. "Determinants of Shadow Economy in Eastern European Countries," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 66(1), pages 1-14, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MIMIC estimation methods; macro and adjusted; micro survey method asking company managers; micro survey method using households' data; using the consumption-income-gap; comparison of results of size of shadow economy of European countries; shadow economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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