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Can Monetary Policy Cause the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle?

  • Cheolbeom Park

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

  • Sookyung Park

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Using a typical open macroeconomic model, we show that the UIP puzzle becomes more pronounced when the monetary policy rule is stricter against inflation. To determine the empirical validity of our model, we examine (the Taylor-rule-type) monetary policy rules and the slope coefficient in the regression of future exchange rate returns on interest rate differentials before and after the recent global financial crisis. We find that all economies that reduced the reaction of the policy interest rate to inflation in response to the crisis have positive slope coefficients in the UIP regressions after the crisis. Iceland has put greater weight on inflation in the policy rule after the crisis, and the UIP puzzle has become more severe there after the crisis, which is also consistent with our model. Moreover, economies for which we cannot find clear break evidence for the reaction to inflation in the monetary policy rule do not show a clear directional change in the slope coefficient of the UIP regression.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Korea University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 1404.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:1404
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Elliott, Graham & ITO, TAKATOSHI, 1998. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange Rate Market," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5wm0q8mz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  16. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.
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