IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01877454.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation targeting and the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dramane Coulibaly

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hubert Kempf

Abstract

Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected depreciation and the interest rate differential (uncovered interest parity condition) and thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries. We show that this reflects the performance of inflation targeting regimes in lowering the level and volatility of inflation. Our finding holds when controlling for country-specific effects, time-specific effects, global disinflation, exchange rate management, crises, and using different econometric techniques.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Dramane Coulibaly & Hubert Kempf, 2019. "Inflation targeting and the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries," Post-Print hal-01877454, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01877454
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01877454
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    4. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    5. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    9. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    10. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    11. Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2007. "Price‐Based Measurement Of Financial Globalization: A Cross‐Country Study Of Interest Rate Parity," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 419-444, October.
    12. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    13. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    14. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Editor's Choice Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(1), pages 1-52.
    15. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2017. "Can monetary policy cause the uncovered interest parity puzzle?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 34-44.
    16. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    17. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    18. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    19. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2016. "Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: 15 Years Later," CID Working Papers 319, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    20. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    22. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    23. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
    24. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    25. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    26. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    27. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2017. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?," NBER Working Papers 23134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-6.
    29. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    30. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    31. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    32. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
    33. Luc Laeven & Fabián Valencia, 2013. "Systemic Banking Crises Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(2), pages 225-270, June.
    34. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    35. repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/693372 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Clive Granger & Tae-Hwy Lee, 1999. "The effect of aggregation on nonlinearity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 259-269.
    37. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
    38. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    [No keyword available];

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01877454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.