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Countries’ safety and competitiveness, and the estimation of current account misalignments

Author

Listed:
  • Teresa Sastre

    () (Banco de España)

  • Francesca Viani

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

Current account imbalances and their sustainability are among the most debated international policy issues. Through the recently designed External Balance Assessment methodology (EBA), the IMF estimates the impact of several countries’ fundamentals and policies on their current account balance, calculates misalignments in their current account position and indicates policy recommendations which, if implemented, should contribute to reducing these imbalances. In this paper, we explore some extensions to the EBA, following two courses. First, we distinguish in current account regressions between countries that are considered safe investment destinations and non-safe economies. Since this distinction is likely to acquire special relevance in periods of global turmoil, we also distinguish between periods of global stress and tranquil times. Second, we embed in EBA regressions variables that drive countries’ external competitiveness. Results show that current account dynamics may be affected by competitiveness factors and differ significantly between safe and non-safe economies, with such differences becoming particularly relevant in turbulent times. These fi ndings suggest that EBA regressions may be overlooking the influence of countries’ safety and competitiveness on external balances. Our alternative misalignment estimations show larger imbalances than those calculated with the EBA for some Asian economies and smaller imbalances for some high-surplus EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Sastre & Francesca Viani, 2014. "Countries’ safety and competitiveness, and the estimation of current account misalignments," Working Papers 1401, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1401
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Beusch & Barbara Döbeli & Andreas M. Fischer & Pinar Yeşin, 2017. "Merchanting and Current Account Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 140-167, January.
    2. Moral-Benito, Enrique & Viani, Francesca, 2017. "An anatomy of the Spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors," MPRA Paper 80079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Enrique Moral-Benito & Francesca Viani, 2017. "An anatomy of the spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors," Working Papers 1737, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; current account benchmark; global imbalances; external balance assessment;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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