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Wage Bargaining Coordination and the Phillips Curve in Italy

  • Alessandra Del Boca
  • Michele Fratianni
  • Franco Spinelli
  • Carmine Trecroci

Was there a textbook-like Phillips curve in post-WWII Italy? We estimate a consensus model of the relationship between inflation and the level of economic activity over 1949-1998, finding no evidence of a significant and positive feedback from output to prices. We also estimate similar models for the UK and the US. We discuss the role of wage coordination and indexation mechanisms in generating what amounts to a significant departure of Italian data from what holds true for the US and UK. Likely, the rigid indexation mechanism that aimed at protecting wages from inflation ended up contributing to the persistent inflation bias that Italy experienced almost until its entry into EMU.

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Paper provided by University of Brescia, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0901.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0901
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  1. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kilponen, Juha, 1999. "Central Bank Independence and Wage Bargaining Structure - Empirical Evidence," Research Discussion Papers 9/1999, Bank of Finland.
  5. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
  6. David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson, 2002. "Changes over time in union relative wage effects in the UK and the US revisited," NBER Working Papers 9395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521321969 is not listed on IDEAS
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