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Wage Bargaining Coordination and the Phillips Curve in Italy

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Listed:
  • Alessandra Del Boca
  • Michele Fratianni
  • Franco Spinelli
  • Carmine Trecroci

Abstract

Was there a textbook-like Phillips curve in post-WWII Italy? We estimate a consensus model of the relationship between inflation and the level of economic activity over 1949-1998, finding no evidence of a significant and positive feedback from output to prices. We also estimate similar models for the UK and the US. We discuss the role of wage coordination and indexation mechanisms in generating what amounts to a significant departure of Italian data from what holds true for the US and UK. Likely, the rigid indexation mechanism that aimed at protecting wages from inflation ended up contributing to the persistent inflation bias that Italy experienced almost until its entry into EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2009. "Wage Bargaining Coordination and the Phillips Curve in Italy," Working Papers 0901, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(3), pages 879-907.
    2. David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson, 2002. "Changes over time in union relative wage effects in the UK and the US revisited," NBER Working Papers 9395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    4. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
    5. Kilponen, Juha, 1999. "Central bank independence and wage bargaining structure : Empirical evidence," Research Discussion Papers 9/1999, Bank of Finland.
    6. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Meier & Enrico Minelli & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2014. "Competitive markets with private information on both sides," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(2), pages 257-280, February.
    2. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    3. Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2009. "Decentralized provision of merit and impure public goods," Working Papers 0909, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    4. Bisin, A. & Geanakoplos, J.D. & Gottardi, P. & Minelli, E. & Polemarchakis, H., 2011. "Markets and contracts," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 279-288.
    5. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains Taxation in the Real World," CESifo Working Paper Series 2674, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Del Boca, Alessandra & Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco & Trecroci, Carmine, 2010. "The Phillips curve and the Italian lira, 1861-1998," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 182-197, August.
    7. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax‐Rate Uncertainty," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(4), pages 438-468, November.
    8. Alessandro Fedele & Raffaele Miniaci, 2010. "Do Social Enterprises Finance Their Investments Differently from For-profit Firms? The Case of Social Residential Services in Italy," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 174-189, October.
    9. Alessandro Fedele & Francesco Liucci & Andrea Mantovani, 2009. "Credit availability in the crisis: the European investment bank group," Working Papers 0913, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

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