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Dissecting US recoveries

Author

Listed:
  • María Dolores Gadea

    (University of Zaragoza)

  • Ana Gómez-Loscos

    (Banco de España)

  • Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

    (Banco de España and CEPR)

Abstract

We propose a set of new quantitative measures to characterise more fully the features of economic recoveries. We apply these measures to post-war US expansions and use cluster analysis to determine that there are two different types of recoveries in recent US economic history, with most expansions before 1984 (Great Moderation) looking quite different from those after.

Suggested Citation

  • María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2017. "Dissecting US recoveries," Working Papers 1708, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1708
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1322-1339, August.
    2. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    3. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    5. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    6. Jordi Gali & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 9-30, December.
    7. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    9. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.
    10. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
    11. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dolores Gadea-Rivas, M. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Bandrés, Eduardo, 2018. "Clustering regional business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 171-176.
    2. Artur Silva Lopes & Gabriel Florin Zsurkis, 2019. "Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(22), pages 2355-2376, May.
    3. Mariam Camarero & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "External imbalances and recoveries," Working Papers 1912, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    4. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    5. Basistha, Arabinda, 2025. "A Markov-switching dynamic factor framework for dating global economic cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Camarero, Mariam & Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Effects of external imbalances on GDP recovery patterns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 349-362.
    7. Ana Gómez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Eduardo Bandres, 2020. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2639-2661, December.
    8. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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