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Citations of
Roberto S. Mariano

For current contact information and a more complete listing of works, please see here

The citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.

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Working papers

  1. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano & Anthony S. Tay & Yiu Kuen Tse, 2006. "Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Bigeco & E. Grosso & Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "Recognizing and Forecasting the Sign of Financial Local Trends using Hidden Markov Models," Working Paper CRENoS 200803, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    2. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2007. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition," Working Papers w0095, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
    3. Dimitrios Thomakos & Tao Wang, 2007. "'Optimal' Probabilistic Predictions for Financial Returns," Working Papers 0006, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  2. Winston T. H. Koh & Roberto S. Mariano & Andrey Pavlov & Sock Yong Phang & Augustine H. H. Tan & Susan M. Wachter, 2006. "Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes," Working Papers 12-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 89-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  3. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2003. "Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility Spillovers, Interdependence and Comovements: A Markov Switching Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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    2. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in Peru," Working Papers 2009-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
    3. Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "Volatility Transmission Across Markets: A Multi-Chain Markov Switching Model," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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  4. Fangxiong Gong & Roberto S. Mariano, 1997. "Testing under non-standard conditions in frequency domain: with applications to Markov regime-switching models of exchange rates and federal funds rate," Staff Reports 23, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers 2008-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    3. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    4. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2004. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2003-09, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Almeida, Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de & Vicente, José Valentim M., 2007. "The Role of No-Arbitrage on Forecasting: Lessons from a Parametric Term Structure Model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 657, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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    6. Maria Rosa Nieto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws087326, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    7. Lux, Thomas, 2004. "The Markov-switching multi-fractal model of asset returns : GMM estimation and linear forecasting of volatility," Economics Working Papers 2004,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 06/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    9. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A., 2008. "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0814, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    10. Burak Saltoğlu, 2003. "Comparing forecasting ability of parametric and non-parametric methods: an application with Canadian monthly interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 169-176, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January. [Downloadable!]
    13. Lei Lei Song, 2003. "The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n29, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    14. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    15. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    16. Olga Arratibel & Christophe Kamps & Nadine Leiner-Killinger, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU member states," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    17. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    18. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesýs & Slacik, Tomas, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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    19. Antonio Rubia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2003. "Forecasting The Conditional Covariance Matrix Of A Portfolio Under Long-Run Temporal Dependence," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-34, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
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    20. Ricardo Mestre, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expectations in the euro area informative," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    21. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 7_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
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    22. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwatz, 2008. "Adaptive Forecasting of the EURIBOR Swap Term Structure," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    23. Favero, Carlo A & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    24. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Banco de España Working Papers 0718, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    25. Tracy Chan & Ramdane Djoudad & Jackson Loi, 2006. "Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada," Working Papers 06-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    26. S. Brock Blomberg, 2001. ""Dumb And Dumber" Explanations For Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 187-216, November. [Downloadable!]
    27. Karen Cabos & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 1999. "Some Thoughts on Monetary Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19912, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    28. Michael S. Gibson & Brian H. Boyer, 1997. "Evaluating forecasts of correlation using option pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 600, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    29. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    30. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 200815, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    31. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2008. "Do high-frequency measures of volatility improve forecasts of return distributions?," Working Papers tecipa-324, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    32. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2009. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an Augmented VAR-DSGE model," Working Papers 2009-1, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center. [Downloadable!]
    33. Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Christopher Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, . "A state space approach to extracting the signal from uncertain data," Bank of England working papers 336, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    34. Bas Aarle & Michael Boss & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2000. "Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 232-258, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    35. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2003. "Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépense des ménages américains," Working Papers 03-13, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    36. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2007. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870-2003," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-404. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    37. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification," Departmental Working Papers 200311, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    38. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    39. Manfredo, Mark & Sanders, Dwight, 2003. "Minimum Variance Hedging And The Encompassing Principle: Assessing The Effectiveness Of Futures Hedges," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    40. Jane M. Binner & C. Thomas Elger & Barry E. Jones & Birger Nilsson, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation: the Relevance of Higher Moments," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 407, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    41. Francis Vitek, 2005. "An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," Macroeconomics 0512019, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
    42. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Can Fluctuations in the Consumption-Wealth Ratio Help to Predict Exchange Rates?," International Finance 0404014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    43. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    44. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Predicting Stock Market Returns by Combining Forecasts," Working Papers 0801, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
    45. Roy H. Webb & Tazewell S. Rowe, 1995. "An index of leading indicators for inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 75-96. [Downloadable!]
    46. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    47. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2005. "A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock," Economics Working Papers 898, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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    48. Frédérick Demers & David Dupuis, 2005. "Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information," Working Papers 05-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    49. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    50. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Carol T. West, 2004. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," Urban/Regional 0403004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    51. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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    52. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    53. Valeri Voev, 2007. "Dynamic Modeling of Large Dimensional Covariance Matrices," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    54. André Güttler & Walter Kraemer, 2008. "On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    55. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    56. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    57. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2001. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002737, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
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    58. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 108, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    59. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
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    60. P.H. Franses & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "The Forecasting Performance of Various Models for Seasonality and Nonlinearity for Quarterly Industrial Production," Econometric Institute Report 222, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    61. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2004. "Controlling inflation in Euroland," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 549-558, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    62. Georgios Kouretas & Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting of the Cyprus Stock Exchange Daily Returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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    63. Chung-Han Kim, 2000. "Balassa-Samuelson Theory And Predictability Of The Us/Uk Real Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 101-121, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    64. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2004. "Modelling East Asian exchange rates: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 233-242, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    65. Troy Matheson, 2005. "Factor model forecasts for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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    66. Marmer, Vadim, 2009. "Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Spurious Forecasts," Micro Theory Working Papers vadim_marmer-2009-60, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 03 Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
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    67. Cavit Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Nuisance parameters, composite likelihoods and a panel of GARCH models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2009fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    68. David L. Haugh, 2005. "The Influence Of Consumer Confidence And Stock Prices On The United States Business Cycle, 1953-2003," CAMA Working Papers 2005-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    69. Hui Feng, 2005. "Real-Time or Current Vintage: Does the Type of Data Matter for Forecasting and Model Selection?," Econometrics Working Papers 0515, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
    70. Helena Veiga, 2006. "Volatility Forecasts: A Continuous Time Model Versus Discrete Time Models1," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws062509, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    71. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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    72. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376. [Downloadable!]
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    73. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51. [Downloadable!]
    74. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80. [Downloadable!]
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    75. Marc-André Gosselin & Greg Tkacz, 2001. "Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada," Working Papers 01-18, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    76. George Milunovich & Susan Thorp, 2005. "Valuing Volatility Spillovers," International Finance 0506008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    77. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    78. Ester Ruiz & Fernando Lorenzo, 1997. "Prediction with univariate time series models: The Iberia case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0298, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
    79. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    80. Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    81. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    82. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2002. "Which Volatility Model for Option Valuation?," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-33, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    83. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 1999. "Forecasting Dynamic Time Series in the Presence of Deterministic Components," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 445, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    84. Bušs, Ginters, 2009. "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper 16684, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    85. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    86. Andreas Andersson & Pär Österholm, 2005. "Forecasting real exchange rate trends using age structure data -- the case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 267-272, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    87. Elizaveta Krylova & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis, 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics - the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    88. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 43, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    89. G. Ascari & Emanuela Marrocu, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: a comparison of linear Phillips curve models and nonlinear time serie models," Working Paper CRENoS 200307, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    90. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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    91. Ph.H.B.F. Franses & D.J.C. van Dijk, 1999. "Outlier detection in the GARCH (1,1) model," Econometric Institute Report 155, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    92. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas, 2002. "Common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from a non-linear vector autoregression approach," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-05, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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    93. Christian Walter & Jose Lopez, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    94. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Arturo Elias, 2004. "Short-Term Water Consumption Dynamics in El Paso, Texas," Others 0410005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    95. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    96. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    97. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    98. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    99. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," NBER Technical Working Papers 0213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    100. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, . "Expectativas de Actividad Económica en Colombia y Estructura a Plazo: Un Poco más de Evidencia," Borradores de Economia 302, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    101. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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    102. Christian Schulz, 2007. "Forecasting economic growth for Estonia : application of common factor methodologies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
    103. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    104. Bruér, Mattias, 2002. "Can Demography Improve Inflation Forecasts? The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2002:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    105. Alper, C. Emre & Fendoglu, Salih & Saltoglu, Burak, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatilities Using MIDAS Regressions: An Application to the Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 7460, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    106. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    107. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, . "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 237, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    108. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    109. José Luis Fernández Serrano & Mª Dolores Robles Fernández, 2001. "Structural Breaks and interest rates forecast: a sequential approach," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0110, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
    110. Ai-ru (Meg) Cheng & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2008. "Return, Trading Volume, and Market Depth in Currency Futures Markets," Working Papers 202008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    111. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    112. Javier J. Pérez, 2005. "Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators," Working Paper Series 497, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    113. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    114. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2008. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    115. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    116. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 177, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    117. Boris Hofmann, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 867, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    118. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2006. "A sequential model of older workers' labor force transitions after a health shock," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 1033-1054. [Downloadable!]
    119. Dora Borbély & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2003. "Zum Konjunkturverbund zwischen der EU und den Beitrittsländern," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 492-509.
    120. Costas Milas & Ilias Lekkos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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    121. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Xin Huang, 2007. "A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures," CREATES Research Papers 2007-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    122. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    123. Kunst, Robert M. & Jumah, Adusei, 2004. "Toward a Theory of Evaluating Predictive Accuracy," Economics Series 162, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    124. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462. [Downloadable!]
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    125. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    126. Viktors Ajevskis & Gundars Davidsons, 2008. "Dynamic Factor Models in Forecasting Latvia's Gross Domestic Product," Working Papers 2008/02, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
    127. M. Marzo & P. Zagaglia, 2007. "Volatility Forecasting for Crude Oil Futures," Working Papers 599, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
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    128. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    129. Patrick Minford & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Vicious and virtuous circles--The political economy of unemployment," Working Papers 200914, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    130. Kai Carstensen, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    131. Riccardo Cristadoro & Fabrizio Venditti & Giuseppe Saporito, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area - does national information help?," Working Paper Series 900, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    132. Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    133. Yunus Aksoy & Kurmas Akdogan, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 12, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    134. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," IMF Working Papers 03/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    135. Joshua Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Empirical Pricing Kernels," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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    136. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2006. "An Asymmetric Block Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 189, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
    137. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson, 2005. "Mind your Ps and Qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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    138. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen Rombouts & Francesco Violente, 2009. "On Loss Functions and Ranking Forecasting Performances of Multivariate Volatility Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-45, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    139. Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    140. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez, 2000. "Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0001, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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    141. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    142. Nandwa, Boaz & Mohan, Ramesh, 2007. "A Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Kenya," MPRA Paper 5581, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    143. David G. Bivin, 2005. "Gauging the performance of the linear-quadratic inventory model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1215-1231, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    144. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Documents de Travail 67, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    145. Viviana Fernández, 2006. "Forecasting crude oil and natural gas spot prices by classification methods," Documentos de Trabajo 229, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
    146. Robert F. Engle & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2008. "Fitting vast dimensional time-varying covariance models," Economics Series Working Papers 403, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    147. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2002. "Two Alternative Approaches to Modelling the Nonlinear Dynamics of the Composite Economic Indicator," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(26), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
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    148. Héctor Mauricio Nuñez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
    149. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 21, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    150. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    151. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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    152. Keen Meng Choy & Hwee Kwan Chow, 2004. "Forecasting the Global Electronics Cycle with Leading Indicators: A VAR Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 223, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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    153. Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2006. "Taking the Temperature - Forecasting GDP Growth for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20606, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    154. Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Testing the Significance of Calendar Effects," Working Papers 2003-03, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    155. Daniel Peña & Ismael Sánchez, 2001. "New In-Sample Prediction Errors In Time Series With Applications," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws011107, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    156. Clive W. J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 1999. "Spurious Stochastics in a Short Time-Series Panel Data," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 55-56, pages 12, Juillet-D. [Downloadable!]
    157. Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure in ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13121, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    158. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
    159. Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis & Alex Saunders, 2009. "An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2009_25, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    160. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    161. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    162. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2004. "Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine," Working Papers 04-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    163. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2001. "The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely," NBER Working Papers 8430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    164. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2008. "Volatility and VaR forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 169-196, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    165. Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, . "Tourism in the Canary Islands: Forecasting Using Several Seasonal Time Series Models," Faculty Working Papers 02/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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    166. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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    167. Kenneth D. West & Michael W. McCracken, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," NBER Technical Working Papers 0226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    168. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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    169. Daniel Leigh & Marco Rossi, 2003. "Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/231, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    170. Michael Pippenger & Gregory Goering, 1998. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Results from a Threshold Autoregressive Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 157-170, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    171. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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    172. Gabriel Moser & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian Inflation," Working Papers 91, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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    173. Jose A. Lopez & Christian A. Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    174. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2005. "Jump-and-Rest Effects of US Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 4975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    175. William Barnett & Chang Ho Kwag, 2005. "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: an Aggregation Theoretic Approach," International Trade 0505004, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
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    176. Spyros Skouras, 2001. "Decisionmetrics: A Decision-Based Approach to Econometric Modeling," Working Papers 01-11-064, Santa Fe Institute.
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    177. Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "The Persistence and Predictive Power of the Dividend-Price Ratio," Departmental Working Papers wp0603, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    178. Alberto Cabrero & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Astrid Hirsch & Fernando Nieto, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 142, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    179. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    180. Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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    181. Siem Jan Koopman & Borus Jungbacker & Eugenie Hol, 2004. "Forecasting Daily Variability of the S&P 100 Stock Index using Historical, Realised and Implied Volatility Measurements," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-016/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    182. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomás Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 165–149. [Downloadable!]
    183. Frank Schorfheide & Keith Sill & Maxym Kryshko, 2008. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," Working Papers 08-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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    184. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2004. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04022, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
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    185. Nour Meddahi & Éric Renault, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-22, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    186. Patricia L. Chelley-Steeley & James M. Steeley, 2005. "The leverage effect in the UK stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 409-423, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    187. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    188. Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the Best Volatility Models:The Model Confidence Set Approach," Working Papers 2003-05, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    189. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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    190. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
    191. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2008/05, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
    192. Abdul Abiad & Prakash Kannan & Jungjin Lee, 2009. "Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments:How Well Have They Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?," IMF Working Papers 09/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    193. Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315. [Downloadable!]
    194. Felipe Córdova & María Carolina Grünwald & Michael Pedersen, 2008. "Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 471, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    195. Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Álvaro Veiga & Carlos Eduardo Pedreira, 2000. "Modelling exchange rates: smooth transitions, neural networks, and linear models," Textos para discussão 432, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    196. Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Survey measures of expected inflation and the inflation process," Working Paper Series 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    197. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Inference about predictive ability when there are many predictors," Working Papers w0096, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
    198. Rainer Schulz & Axel Werwatz, 2008. "House Prices and Replacement Cost: A Micro-Level Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    199. Prasad S. Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2006. "Forecasting Industry-Level CPI and PPI Inflation: Does Exchange Rate Pass-Through Matter?," Economics Series 2006_10, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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    200. Giampiero M. Gallo & Yongmiao Hong & Tae-Why Lee, 2001. "Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Stock Returns," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
    201. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
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    202. Jan Babecky & Jiri Podpiera, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts Errors in the Czech Republic: Evidence from a Panel of Institutions," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 6, pages 77-85 Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    203. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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    204. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "An Unbiased and Powerful Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2001-06, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    205. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Should we expect significant out-of-sample results when predicting stock returns?," International Finance Discussion Papers 855, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    206. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    207. Krishna Ramaswamy & Choong-Tze Chua & Winston T.H. Koh, 2004. "Profiting from Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 142, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    208. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," Staff Reports 317, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    209. Vamerson Schwingel Ribeiro & Joilson Dias, 2004. "Índice De Atividade Econômica: Os Modelos De Filtro De Kalman E Box-Jenkins Comparados," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 103, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    210. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74. [Downloadable!]
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    211. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Currency Options and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2001-03, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
    212. Helmut Luetkepohl & Fang Xu, 2009. "The Role of the Log Transformation in Forecasting Economic Variables," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    213. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
    214. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    215. B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    216. Ying Chen & Wolfgang Härdle & Uta Pigorsch, 2009. "Localized Realized Volatility Modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    217. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Spitzer, 2006. "An Unobserved Components Model to forecast Austrian GDP," Working Papers 119, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    218. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    219. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005273, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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    220. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    221. Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Working Papers 2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    222. Wang, Kai Li & Fawson, Christopher & Barrett, Christopher B. & McDonald, James B., 1998. "A Flexible Parametric Garch Model With An Application To Exchange Rates," Economics Research Institute, ERI Study Papers 28355, Utah State University, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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    223. Ahoniemi, Katja & Lanne, Markku, 2007. "Joint Modeling of Call and Put Implied Volatility," MPRA Paper 6318, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    224. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz, . "Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles," Working Papers 2007-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
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    225. Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    226. Carlos Capistrán & Christian Constandse & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "Using Seasonal Models to Forecast Short-Run Inflation in Mexico," Working Papers 2009-05, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
    227. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    228. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    229. Marie Diron & Maria Cruz Manzano & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Forecasting aggregate investment in the euro area: do indicators of financial conditions help?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 206-27 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    230. Roland Döhrn, 2006. "Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?," RWI Discussion Papers 0051, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
    231. Kevin Moran & Veronika Dolar, 2002. "Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data," Working Papers 02-18, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    232. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(03), December. [Downloadable!]
    233. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Emma García, . "Forecasting the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Can International Parities Help?," Working Papers 2003-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    234. V. L. Martin & G. M. Martin & G. C. Lim, 2005. "Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 377-404. [Downloadable!]
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    235. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    236. Stéphane Dées & Matthias Burgert, 2008. "Forecasting world trade. Direct versus "bottom-up" approaches," Working Paper Series 882, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    237. Clive W.J. Granger & Ling-ling Huang, 1997. "Evaluation of Panel Data Models: Some Suggestions from Time Series," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-10, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    238. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    239. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1995. "A Model Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Macroeconomics 9503004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    240. Nii Ayi Armah & Norman R. Swanson, 2008. "Seeing inside the black box: Using diffusion index methodology to construct factor proxies in large scale macroeconomic time series environments," Working Papers 08-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    241. Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, Michael & Fisher, Anthony, 2004. "Determinants of Agricultural Output: Degree Days, Yields and Implications for Climate Change," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19222, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    242. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting," Working Papers 2003-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    243. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    244. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    245. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1033, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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    246. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, . "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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    247. Bertrand Maillet, Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    248. Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2006. "Can Panel Data Really Improve the Predictability of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model?," MPRA Paper 1229, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    249. A.H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    250. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    251. Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2006. "The political economy of unemployment and threshold effects. A nonlinear time series approach," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/21, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
    252. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    253. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2002. "The performance of Setar Models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts," Working Paper CRENoS 200208, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
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    254. Stavros Degiannakis, 2004. "Volatility forecasting: evidence from a fractional integrated asymmetric power ARCH skewed-t model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1333-1342, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    255. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 112, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    256. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    257. Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Park, Timothy, 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Emerging Methods for Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19045, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
    258. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    259. Georgios Chortareas & John Nankervis & Ying Jiang, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility with High Frequency Data: Is the Euro Different?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 79, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    260. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
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    261. Raffaella Giacomini & Ivana Komunjer, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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    262. Calista Cheung & Frédérick Demers, 2007. "Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation," Working Papers 07-8, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    263. Gilles Dufrenot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "Changing regime volatility: A fractionally integrated SETAR model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185369_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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    264. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    265. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 800, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    266. Silvia Goncalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Predictable dynamics in the S&P 500 index options implied volatility surface," Working Papers 2005-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    267. Marcela Urrutia A. & Andrea Sánchez Y., 2008. "Generación de Energía Eléctrica en un Modelo para Proyectar el IMACEC," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 99-108, August. [Downloadable!]
    268. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    269. Kerstin Bernoth & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sector," DNB Working Papers 202, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    270. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2006. "A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing and Forecasting of Interest Rate Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 12337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    271. C. Emre Alper & Salih Fendoglu & Burak Saltoglu, 2009. "MIDAS Volatility Forecast Performance Under Market Stress: Evidence from Emerging and Developed Stock Markets," Working Papers 2009/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    272. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    273. Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages _059, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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    274. Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Working Papers 0322, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
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    275. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2008. "The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 22, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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    276. Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 585, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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    277. Andrew Patton, 2006. "Volatility Forecast Comparison using Imperfect Volatility Proxies," Research Paper Series 175, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    278. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Christopher S. Jones & Robert S. Goldstein, 2004. "Can Interest Rate Volatility be Extracted from the Cross Section of Bond Yields? An Investigation of Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 10756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    279. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    280. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2008. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing GARCH models," MPRA Paper 13662, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    281. Dreger, Christian & Schumacher, Christian, 2002. "Estimating Large-Scale Factor Models for Economic Activity in Germany: Do They Outperform Simpler Models?," Discussion Paper Series 26321, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    282. Feng Zhao & Robert Jarrow & Haitao Li, 2004. "Interest Rate Caps Smile Too! But Can the LIBOR Market Models Capture It?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 431, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    283. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields: The importance of non-linear temperature effects," Discussion Papers 0607-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    284. Marcelo C. Medeiros & Timo Terasvirta & Gianluigi Rech, 2002. "Building Neural Network Models for Time Series: A Statistical Approach," Textos para discussão 461, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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    285. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 379, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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    286. Paul McNelis & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Forecasting inflation with thick models and neural networks," Working Paper Series 352, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    287. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    288. Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
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    289. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    290. Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of volatility models," Research Paper 9524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    291. Andrew Vivian, 2005. "The Equity Premium: 101 years of Empirical Evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    292. Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2005. "An Overview of European Economic Indicators: Great Variety of Data on the Euro Area, Need for More Extensive Coverage of the New EU Member States," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 66-89, November. [Downloadable!]
    293. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    294. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    295. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    296. ODIA NDONGO, Yves Francis, 2007. "Les sources des fluctuations marcoéconomiques au Cameroun," MPRA Paper 1308, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    297. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    298. Pablo Pincheira B., 2007. "Hidden Predictability in Economics: The Case of the Chilean Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 435, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    299. Chris Brooks & Simon Burke, 2003. "Information criteria for GARCH model selection," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 557-580, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    300. Mario Forni & Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese., 2008. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 020, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    301. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the euro area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    302. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Joerg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum," MPRA Paper 2386, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    303. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    304. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    305. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    306. Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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    307. PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2005. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2005025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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    308. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    309. Bryan Campbell & Steve Murphy, 2006. "The Recent Performance of the Canadian Forecasting Industry," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 32(1), pages 23-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    310. Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2009. "A No Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Analysis Of The Range Based Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2009-31, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    311. Trino-Manuel Niguez & Javier Perote, 2004. "Forecasting the density of asset returns," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2004/479, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    312. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    313. Lei Lei Song, 2005. "Do underlying measures of inflation outperform headline rates? Evidence from Australian data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 339-345, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    314. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    315. Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    316. Joachim Benner & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2003. "Prognosegüte alternativer Frühindikatoren für die Konjunktur in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 1139, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    317. Roy H. Webb, 1994. "Forecasts of inflation for VAR models," Working Paper 94-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
    318. Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    319. Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008. "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/08, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
    320. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
    321. Jose M. Campa & P. H. Kevin Chang, 1997. "The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options," NBER Working Papers 5974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    322. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
    323. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    324. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes With Applications to Forecast Model Selection," Departmental Working Papers 200418, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    325. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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    326. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    327. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    328. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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    329. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
    330. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    331. Nelson Areal & Artur Rodrigues & Manuel Armada, 2008. "On improving the least squares Monte Carlo option valuation method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 119-151, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    332. Javier J. Pérez & Diego J. Pedregal, 2008. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," Working Paper Series 937, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    333. Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    334. Mikhail Chernov & Eric Ghysels, 1998. "What Data Should Be Used to Price Options?," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-22, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    335. Marcelo Fernandes & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & MArcelo Scharth, 2007. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Textos para discussão 548, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    336. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    337. Karsten Ruth, 2007. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 541-569, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    338. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Conditional Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictive Ability in Long Run Regressions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 378, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    339. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13. [Downloadable!]
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    340. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    341. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    342. Todd E. Clark, 2000. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Research Working Paper RWP 00-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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    343. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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    344. Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    345. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Economics Working Papers 920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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    346. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonomalised Laguerre Polynomials: An Intertemporally Consistent Approach with an Economic Interpretation," Working Papers in Economics 03/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    347. William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2004. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Working Papers 2003-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    348. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2003. "Volatility And Var Forecasting For The Ibex-35 Stock-Return Index Using Figarch-Type Processes And Different Evaluation Criteria," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-33, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    349. Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Realising the future: forecasting with high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models," Economics Series Working Papers 438, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    350. Barot, Bharat, 2007. "Empirical Studies in Consumption, House Prices and the Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper 98, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    351. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    352. M.P. Clements & Ph.H.B.F. Franses & J. Smith, 1999. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Report 141, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    353. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1998. "Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1998-16, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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    354. Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    355. Sang-Kuck Chung, 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasts of nonlinear long-memory models of the real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 355-370. [Downloadable!]
    356. Hüfner, Felix & Schröder, Michael, 2001. "Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen : zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-04, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    357. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    358. Bordes, C. & Clerc, L., 2004. "Price Stability and The ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," Documents de Travail 109, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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    359. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August. [Downloadable!]
    360. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    361. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    362. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    363. Sabine Stephan, 2005. "German Exports to the Euro Area - A Cointegration Approach," IMK Working Paper 06-2005, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
    364. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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    365. Herwartz, Helmut & Golosnoy, Vasyl, 2007. "Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance," Economics Working Papers 2007,23, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    366. Fabio Trojani & Francesco Audrino, 2006. "Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 345-369. [Downloadable!]
    367. Kyungchul Song, 2009. "Testing Predictive Ability and Power Robustification," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    368. de Silva, Ashton, 2008. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using a structural state space model," MPRA Paper 11060, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    369. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Research series 200812-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    370. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2008. "Comparison of Misspecified Calibrated Models: The Minimum Distance Approach," Micro Theory Working Papers vadim_marmer-2008-14, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 02 Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
    371. Pablo Pincheira B., 2008. "Predictibilidad Encubierta en Economía: El Caso del Tipo de Cambio Nominal Chileno," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 137-142, April. [Downloadable!]
    372. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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    373. Sabine Stephan, 2006. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    374. Danilov, D.L. & Magnus, J.R., 2001. "On the harm that pretesting does," Discussion Paper 37, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    375. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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    376. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," NBER Technical Working Papers 0217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    377. Irac, D. & Sédillot, F., 2002. "Short-Run Assessment of French Economic Activity Using OPTIM," Documents de Travail 88, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    378. Kala Krishna & Ataman Ozyildirim & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis," NBER Working Papers 6861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    379. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2005. "Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," ISAE Working Papers 60, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
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    380. Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper 72, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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    381. Marcel Scharth & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2006. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks," Textos para discussão 532, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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    382. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    383. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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    384. Arvid Raknerud & Terje Skjerpen & Anders Swensen, 2007. "A linear demand system within a seemingly unrelated time series equations framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 105-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    385. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "The Monetary Model Strikes Back: Evidence from the World," IMF Working Papers 08/73, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    386. William T. Gavin, 2003. "FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?," Working Papers 2003-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    387. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    388. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 231-252, June. [Downloadable!]
    389. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open economy DSGE-VAR forecasting and policy analysis - head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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    390. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    391. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    392. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2008. "Optimizing Time-series Forecasts for Inflation and Interest Rates Using Simulation and Model Averaging," Economics Series 231, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    393. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Theoretically Consistent Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 39-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    394. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    395. Anella Munro, 2005. "UIP, Expectations and the Kiwi," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    396. Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    397. Troy Matheson, 2007. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    398. Carmine Pappalardo & Gianfranco Piras, 2004. "Vector-Autoregression Approach to Forecast Italian Imports," ISAE Working Papers 42, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    399. Angelos Kanas & George Kouretas, 2001. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," Working Papers 0101, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    400. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "How to Beat the Random Walk," Working Paper Series 175, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    401. Xu, Hai Yan & Ward, Bert D. & Nartea, Gilbert, 2007. "An Empirical Study of the Chinese Short-Term Interest Rate: A Comparison of the Predictive Power of Rival One-Factor Models," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 3(1-2). [Downloadable!]
    402. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    403. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has models’ forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    404. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    405. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    406. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Durmaz, Nazif, 2009. "Bias Correction and Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 16780, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    407. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    408. Gerhard Rünstler & Franck Sédillot, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    409. Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2006. "Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates," MPRA Paper 5199, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    410. Luca Onorante & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Sara Signorini, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 901, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    411. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    412. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 2003. "Long-Memory Forecasting of U.S. Monetary Indices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 558, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    413. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2004. "Using Efficiency Tests to Reduce Revisions in Panel Data: The Case of Wage and Salary Estimates for U.S. States," BEA Working Papers 0018, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    414. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    415. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    416. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
    417. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H., 2007. "Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37577, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
    418. Andrew J. Patton & Kevin Sheppard, 2008. "Evaluating Volatility and Correlation Forecasts," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe22, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    419. Visser, Marcel P., 2008. "Forecasting S&P 500 Daily Volatility using a Proxy for Downward Price Pressure," MPRA Paper 11100, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    420. Marco Maffezzoli, 2001. "Non-Walrasian Labor Markets and Real Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 860-892, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    421. David Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Tests for multiple forecast encompassing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 471-482. [Downloadable!]
    422. Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2005. "Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    423. Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A, 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    424. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2006. "Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices," Working Papers 06-25, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    425. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    426. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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    427. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Working Papers 2008-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    428. Fabio Rumler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time Series Models to Forecast Inflation," Working Papers 148, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    429. J. Baixauli & Susana Alvarez, 2006. "Evaluating effects of excess kurtosis on VaR estimates: Evidence for international stock indices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 27-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    430. Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2007. "A comparison of measures of core inflation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 19-38. [Downloadable!]
    431. Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    432. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    433. Olivier Darne, 2008. "Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(32), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
    434. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2006. "Forecasting Canadian Time Series With the New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 382, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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    435. Maurício Yoshinori Une & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2005. "Can fear beat hope? A story of GARCH-in-Mean-Level effects for Emerging Market Country Risks," Econometrics 0509006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    436. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    437. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    438. Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1997. "Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 487, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    439. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    440. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2007. "Assessing the performance of a prediction error criterion model selection algorithm in the context of ARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 149-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    441. Tony Guida & Olivier Matringe, 2005. "Application Of Garch Models In Forecasting The Volatility Of Agricultural Commodities," Finance 0512021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    442. Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Realising the future: forecasting with high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2009fe02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    443. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment in US Bond Yields: an Empirical Analysis with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 11571, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    444. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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    445. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    446. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    447. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0807, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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    448. Ron J. Feldman & Jan Kim & Preston J. Miller & Jason E. Schmidt, 2003. "Are Banking Supervisory Data Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasts?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
    449. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 801, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    450. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    451. Cavait Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Nuisance parameters, composite likelihoods and a panel of GARCH models," Economics Series Working Papers 458, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    452. D'Agostino, Antonello & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/07, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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    453. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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    454. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2007. "Volatility Forecasting Using Explanatory Variables and Focused Selection Criteria," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
    455. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Forecasting Realized Volatility by Decomposition," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/20, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    456. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, . "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 268, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    457. Robledo, Carlos W. & Zapata, Hector O. & McCracken, Michael, 2001. "New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20686, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    458. Marian Berneburg, 2003. "Composite Leading Indicators der amerikanischen Wirtschaft - Prognosegüte des Conference Board und des OECD Ansatzes im Vergleich," IWH Discussion Papers 172, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    459. Onour, Ibrahim, 2009. "Natural Gas markets:How Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Changes?," MPRA Paper 14937, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    460. Andrea Berardi & Walter Torous, 2002. "Does the term structure forecast," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1044, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    461. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    462. Bermingham, Colin, 2008. "Quantifying the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/08, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
    463. Ana María Abarca & Felipe Alarcón & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 425, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    464. Artis, Michael J & Clavel, Jose Garcia & Hoffmann, Mathias & Nachane, Dilip M, 2007. "Analyzing Strongly Periodic Series in the Frequency Domain: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches with Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    465. D'Amuri, Francesco & Marcucci, Juri, 2009. ""Google it!" Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index," MPRA Paper 18248, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
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    466. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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    467. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2007. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 664, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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    468. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    469. Alvaro Escribano & Clive W.J. Granger, 1996. "Investigating the Relationship between Gold and Silver Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-38, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    470. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 157, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    471. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, . "Estimating time-variation in measurement error from data revisions; an application to forecasting in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 238, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    472. Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/3, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    473. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Management and Economics, Växjö University. [Downloadable!]
    474. Gregory Koutmos & Andreas Pericli & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2006. "Short-term Dynamics in the Cyprus Stock Exchange," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 205-216, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    475. Lillie Lam & Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2009. "Forecasting a Large Dimensional Covariance Matrix of a Portfolio of Different Asset Classes," Working Papers 0901, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
    476. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    477. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non)-Causality in a Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model," Studies in Economics 0802, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
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    478. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Forecasting Regional Labour Market Developments Under Spatial Heterogeneity and Spatial Autocorrelation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-041/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    479. Paul D. McNelis & Salih N. Neftci, 2006. "Renminbi Revaluation, Euro Appreciation and Chinese Markets: What Can We Learn From Data?," Working Papers 012006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    480. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Evaluation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Based on Distributional Comparison of Simulated and Historical Data," Departmental Working Papers 200320, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    481. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Robust tests of predictive accuracy," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 161-184. [Downloadable!]
    482. Thomas Fullerton & Roberto Tinajero & Jorge Mendoza Cota, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of Tijuana Water Consumption," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 357-369, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    483. Ghent, Andra, 2006. "Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?," MPRA Paper 180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    484. Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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    485. Sabine Stephan, 2007. "A re-assessment of German import demand," IMK Working Paper 08-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
    486. Marwan Izzeldin & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2008. "On forecasting daily stock volatility: the role of intraday information and market conditions," Working Papers 005439, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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    487. Daniel Buncic, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_18, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI). [Downloadable!]
    488. Roland Döhrn & Christoph M. Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2008. "Inflation Forecasting with Inflation Sentiment Indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 0080, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
    489. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Measuring Volatility Dynamics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    490. Kajal Lahiri & Chuanming Gao & Bermard Wixon, 2001. "Value of Sample Separation Information in a Sequential Probit Model: Another Look at SSA's Disability Determination Process," Discussion Papers 01-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    491. Santosh Mishra & Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Jumps in Rank and Expected Returns. Introducing Varying Cross-sectional Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 356, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    492. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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    493. Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez & Salvador Torra & Julian Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Are Spanish Ibex35 stock future index returns forecasted with non-linear models?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 963-975, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    494. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2003. "Panel Index VAR Models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 4033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    495. William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," Working Papers 2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    496. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2007. "An exponential FISTAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00353836_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    497. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Éric Renault, 2001. "Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent Variables (Note : New version February 2002) / Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent Varia," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-02, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    498. Tong Li, 2006. "Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    499. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIS good indicators of economic activity? Evidence from the G7 countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    500. Christopher Neely & Paul Weller, 1999. "Predictability in international asset returns: a reexamination," Working Papers 1997-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    501. Raymund Abara, 2006. "Estimation and evaluation of asset pricing models with habit formation using Philippine data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 493-497, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    502. Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    503. Gonzalo Camba-Méndez & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation," Working Paper Series 402, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    504. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh K. Narayan & Stephen Popp & Badri N. Rath, 2009. "The Productivity-Wage And Productivityemployment Nexus - A Panel Data Analysis Of Indian Manufacturing," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 07-09, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    505. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Has Economic Models’ Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?," Working Papers 09-06, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    506. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    507. Kunst, Robert M., 2003. "Testing for Relative Predictive Accuracy: A Critical Viewpoint," Economics Series 130, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    508. Yoshua Bengio & François Gingras & Claude Nadeau, 2002. "On Out-of-Sample Statistics for Time-Series," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-51, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    509. P. Rothman & D.J.C. van Dijk & P.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Report 170, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    510. Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T. K. Wan, 2009. "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," Working Papers 032009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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    511. Francesco Audrino & Robert Fernholz & Roberto Ferretti, 2007. "A Forecasting Model for Stock Market Diversity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 213-240, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    512. S. Hussain & R. Harrison & J. Ayres & S. Walter & J. Hawker & R. Wilson & G. Shukur, 2005. "Estimation and forecasting hospital admissions due to Influenza: Planning for winter pressure. The case of the West Midlands, UK," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 191-205, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    513. Turgut Kisinbay, 2003. "Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models at Medium-Term Horizons," IMF Working Papers 03/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    514. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    515. Park, Timothy & Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar, 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19412, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    516. Moura, Marcelo L. & Lima, Adauto R. S., 2007. "Empirical exchange rate models fit: Evidence from the Brazilian economy," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_85, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    517. John Kennan, 2001. "Uniqueness of Positive Fixed Points for Increasing Concave Functions on Rn: An Elementary Result," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 893-899, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    518. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    519. Christian Huurman & Francesco Ravazzolo & Chen Zhou, 2007. "The Power of Weather: Some Empirical Evidence on Predicting Day-ahead Power Prices through Day-ahead Weather Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-036/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    520. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2007. "A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 187-201, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    521. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    522. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 797, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    523. Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 16525, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    524. José Dias Curto & João Tomaz & José Castro Pinto, 2009. "A new approach to bad news effects on volatility: the multiple-sign-volume sensitive regime EGARCH model (MSV-EGARCH)," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 23-36, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    525. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2005. "Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/14, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    526. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Long Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    527. Aaron F. Schiff & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Forecasting New Zealand's Real GDP," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1278, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    528. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(02), August. [Downloadable!]
    529. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    530. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    531. Perry Sadorsky, 2005. "Stochastic volatility forecasting and risk management," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 121-135, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    532. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Forecast Encompassing And Futures Market Efficiency: The Case Of Milk Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20267, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    533. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(03), December. [Downloadable!]
    534. Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter, 2006. "Forecasting regional labor market developments under spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation," Serie Research Memoranda 0015, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
    535. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/13, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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    536. Thomas Fullerton & Roberto Tinajero & Martha Barraza de Anda, 2006. "Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 467-479, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    537. André P. Calmon & Thomas Vallée & João B. R. Do Val, 2009. "Monetary policy as a source of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-00422454_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    538. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    539. Magnus Andersson & Antonello D’Agostino, 2008. "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Working Paper Series 876, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    540. Alberto Cabrero & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Astrid Hirsch & Fernando Nieto, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Banco de España Working Papers 0211, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    541. Francis Vitek, 2005. "An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Closed Economy," Macroeconomics 0512018, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
    542. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer & Kevin Cole, 1997. "Split ratings and the pricing of credit risk," Research Paper 9711, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    543. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    544. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December. [Downloadable!]
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    545. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(8), pages 1-33. [Downloadable!]
    546. Geoffrey F. Loudon & Wing H. Watt & Pradeep K. Yadav, 2000. "An empirical analysis of alternative parametric ARCH models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 117-136. [Downloadable!]
    547. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/11, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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    548. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    549. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    550. Antoni Espasa & Rebeca Albacete, 2004. "Econometric Modelling For Short-Term Inflation Forecasting In The Emu," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws034309, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    551. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    552. Rodrigo Alfaro & Daniel Calvo & Daniel Oda, 2008. "Banking Risk Exposure," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 503, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    553. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Papers 200923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    554. Susan Thorp & George Milunovich, 2005. "Asymmetric Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Research Paper Series 160, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    555. David Peel & Ivan Paya & E Pavlidis, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 006075, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    556. Nelson Mark, 1998. "Fundamentals of the Real Dollar-Pound Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 98-14, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    557. Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2005. "Modelling squared returns using a SETAR model with long-memory dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00179285_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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    558. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 55, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    559. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2005. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Macroeconomics 0501002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    560. Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2008. "A New-Keynesian DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy," Working Papers 200805, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    561. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    562. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Documents de Travail 101, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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    563. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    564. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2002. "Can We Beat the Random Walk Forecasts of Out-of-Sample Exchange Rates? A Structural Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 233, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    565. Kamada, Koichiro, 2004. "Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    566. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for the euro-area: comparing production function with unobserved components and SVAR approaches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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    567. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    568. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2004. "Land Inequality and the Origin of Divergence and Overtaking in the Growth Process: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2003-04, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    569. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    570. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    571. Buncic, Daniel, 2008. "A note on long horizon forecasts of nonlinear models of real exchange rates: Comments on Rapach and Wohar (2006)," MPRA Paper 6904, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    572. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    573. Guy Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 03/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    574. Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk & Michiel de Pooter, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting S&P 500 Volatility: Long Memory, Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-067/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    575. D. Guégan & L. Mercier, 2005. "Prediction in chaotic time series: methods and comparisons with an application to financial intra-day data," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 137-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    576. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Comparing Hedging Effectiveness: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(01), April. [Downloadable!]
    577. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    578. Norberto Rodríguez & Patricia Siado, 2003. "Un Pronóstico No Paramétrico De La Inflación Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003691, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    579. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Raahauge, Peter, 2004. "Latent Utility Shocks in a Structural Empirical Asset Pricing Model," Working Papers 2004-7, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance. [Downloadable!]
    580. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    581. Jose A. Lopez & Marc R. Saidenberg, 1999. "Evaluating credit risk models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    582. Shiyi Chen & Kiho Jeong & Wolfgang Härdle, 2008. "Support Vector Regression Based GARCH Model with Application to Forecasting Volatility of Financial Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-014, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    583. Moura, Marcelo L. , & Lima, Adauto R. S. & Mendonça, Rodrigo M., 2008. "Exchange Rate and Fundamentals: The Case of Brazil," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_112, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    584. Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
    585. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    586. Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Forecasting with Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 91, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
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    587. Österholm, Pär, 2003. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Working Paper Series 2003:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    588. Onour, Ibrahim, 2008. "Forward-Looking Beta Estimates:Evidence from an Emerging Market," MPRA Paper 14992, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  6. Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1991. "Comparing predictive accuracy I: an asymptotic test," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 52, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Roy H. Webb & Tazewell S. Rowe, 1995. "An index of leading indicators for inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 75-96. [Downloadable!]
    2. Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Chan Huh, 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-41. [Downloadable!]

Articles

  1. Winston T. H. Koh & Roberto S. Mariano & Yiu Kuen Tse, 2007. "Open vs. sealed-bid auctions: testing for revenue equivalence under Singapore's vehicle quota system," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 125-134, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Winston T.H. Koh, 2003. "Congestion Control and Vehicle Ownership Restriction: The Choice of an Optimal Quota Policy," Working Papers 03-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  2. Koh, Winston T.H. & Mariano, Roberto S. & Pavlov, Andrey & Phang, Sock Yong & Tan, Augustine H.H. & Wachter, Susan M., 2005. "Bank lending and real estate in Asia: market optimism and asset bubbles," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1103-1118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto S. Mariano, 2008. "Misaligned Incentives and Mortgage Lending in Asia," Working Papers 07-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  3. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Enrique Sentana & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," Working Papers wp2007_0714, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Extraction of Common Signal from Series with Different Frequency," Econometrics 0502011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    5. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalacio & Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura, 2009. "Um Indicador Coincidente e Antecedente da Atividade Econômica Brasileira," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 695, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    6. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2002. "Predicting the Cyclical Phases of the Post-War U.S. Leading and Coincident Indicators," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
    7. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2002. "Some Evidence of Decreasing Volatility of the US Coincident Economic Indicator," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(20), pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
    9. Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/32, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Byeongchan Seong & Sung K. Ahn & Peter A. Zadrozny, 2007. "Cointegration Analysis with Mixed-Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    11. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 901, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004. "Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints," Econometrics 0401003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Evans, Martin D.D., 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    14. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    15. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," ECARES Working Papers 2008_008, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
    16. Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box - publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    17. Javier J. Pérez & Diego J. Pedregal, 2008. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," Working Paper Series 937, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    18. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2002. "Unobserved Leading and Coincident Common Factors in the Post-War U.S. Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    19. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    20. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2009. "Do coincident indicators have one-factor structure?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 339-365, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    21. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0807, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2004. "Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles without Assuming a One-factor Model," Working Papers 22-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    24. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
    25. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2009. "Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0912, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    27. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalacio & Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura, 2009. "Constructing Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity for the Brazilian Economy," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 694, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    28. Frale, Cecilia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    29. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    30. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2001. "Markov-Switching Common Dynamic Factor Model with Mixed-Frequency Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    31. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    32. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Documents de Travail 215, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. Joao Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & Antonio Rua, 2003. "Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-069/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    34. Jens Hogrefe, 2008. "Forecasting data revisions of GDP: a mixed frequency approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 271-296, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  4. Tanizaki, Hisashi & Mariano, Roberto S., 1998. "Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space modeling with Monte Carlo simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 263-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. TOKOVENKO, Oleksiy & Gunter, Lewell F., 2008. "Quarterly Storage Model of U.S. Cotton Market: Estimation of the Basis under Rational Expectations," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6435, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    2. J. Huston McCulloch & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2003. "Signal Extraction can Generate Volatility Clusters," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 59, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. Tomohiro Ando, 2008. "Measuring the baseline sales and the promotion effect for incense products: a Bayesian state-space modeling approach," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 763-780, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. J. Huston McCulloch & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2002. "Signal Extraction Can Generate Volatility Clusters From IID Shocks," Working Papers 02-04, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    5. Prasad Bidarkota & J. Huston McCulloch, 2003. "News or Noise? Signal Extraction Can Generate Volatility Clusters From IID Shocks," Working Papers 0304, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    6. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2005. "Measuring Asymmetric Stochastic Cycle Components in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-081/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    7. Prasad Bidarkota, 2003. "Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches to Modeling Level Shifts in the Presence of Outliers," Working Papers 0307, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  6. Tanizaki, Hisashi & Mariano, Roberto S, 1994. "Prediction, Filtering and Smoothing in Non-linear and Non-normal Cases Using Monte Carlo Integration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 163-79, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    2. Heiss, Florian, 2006. "Nonlinear State-Space Models for Microeconometric Panel Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 1157, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Equilibrium economies: A Likelihood Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  7. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1989. "Measures of Deterministic Prediction Bias in Nonlinear Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 667-84, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. David McMillan, 2008. "Non-linear cointegration and adjustment: an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model for US interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 591-606, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    2. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Timmermann, A., 2009. "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0901, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Paper 61, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]

  8. Seater, John J. & Mariano, Roberto S., 1985. "New tests of the life cycle and tax discounting hypotheses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 195-215, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Leanne Ussher, 1998. "Do Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Working Papers 0005 Classification- JEL:, Department of Economics, Queens College of the City University of New York. [Downloadable!]
    2. Agustín García & Julián Ramajo, . "Los Efectos De La Política Fiscal Sobre El Consumo Privado: Nueva Evidencia Para El Caso Español," Working Papers 13-02 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. [Downloadable!]
    3. Basil A. Dalamagas, 1993. "Fiscal Effectiveness and Debt Illusion in a Rational Expectations Model," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 31, pages 06, Juillet-S. [Downloadable!]
    4. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption – Saving Decisions: Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    6. Mark Wheeler, 1999. "The macroeconomic impacts of government debt: An empirical analysis of the 1980s and 1990s," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 273-284, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 2685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    8. Gerhard Reitschuler & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2004. "Ricardian Equivalence Revisited: Evidence from OECD countries," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(16), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
    9. Islam, Roumeen & Wetzel, Deborah L., 1991. "The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : the case of Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 672, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    10. Alpha C. Chiang & Stephen M. Miller, 1998. "The Perception of Government Bonds and Money as Net Wealth: An Integrated Approach," Working papers 1998-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  9. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1984. "Residual-Based Procedures for Prediction and Estimation in a Nonlinear Simultaneous System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 321-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jaime Marquez & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    2. Bryan W. Brown, 2000. "Efficient Semiparametric Prediction Intervals," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1633, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    3. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Jensen-Butler, 2005. "Estimation of Spatial Weights Matrix in a Spatial Error Model, with an Application to Diffusion in Housing Demand," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0519, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
    4. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1345, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Jun 2003. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Paper 61, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    9. Jaime Marquez, 1988. "Income and price elasticities of foreign trade flows: econometric estimation and analysis of the U.S. trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 324, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    10. Hukkinen, Juhana & Viren, Matti, 1996. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of a Macroeconomic Model," Research Discussion Papers 23/1996, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    11. Jeon, Byung M. & Brown, Bryan, 2001. "Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Expectations in Dynamic Nonlinear Systems," Working Papers 2001-09, Rice University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    12. Hukkinen, Juhana & Viren, Matti, 1998. "How to Evaluate the Forecasting Performance of a Macroeconomic Model," Research Discussion Papers 5/1998, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    13. Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort, 1991. "Simulation Based Inference in Models with Heterogeneity," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 20-21, pages 05, Octobre-m. [Downloadable!]
    14. Franz, Wolfgang & Göggelmann, Klaus & Schellhorn, Martin & Winker, Peter, 1998. "Quasi - Monte Carlo Methods in Stochastic Simulations," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-03, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]

  10. Mariano, Roberto S & Brown, Bryan W, 1983. "Asymptotic Behavior of Predictors in a Nonlinear Simultaneous System," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 523-36, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jaime Marquez & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    2. Bryan W. Brown, 2000. "Efficient Semiparametric Prediction Intervals," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1633, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    3. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Paper 61, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    5. Richard Quandt & Harvey Rosen, 1985. "Unemployment, Disequilibrium and the Short-Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach," Working Papers 582, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]

  11. Mariano, Roberto S, 1982. "Analytical Small-Sample Distribution Theory in Econometrics: The Simultaneous-Equations Case," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 503-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Paul A. Bekker & Jan van der Ploeg, 2000. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Based on Grouped Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1862, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    2. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Schorfheide, Frank, 2006. "Boosting Your Instruments: Estimation with Overidentifying Inequality Moment Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1996. "Bayesian Posterior Distributions in Limited Information Analysis of the Simultaneous Equations Model Using the Jeffreys Prior," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1137, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    4. Rodrigo Alfaro, 2008. "Higher Order Properties of the Symmetricallr Normalized Instrumental Variable Estimator," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 500, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    5. D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2004. "Assessing the Magnitude of the Concentration Parameter in a Simultaneous Equations Model," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 29/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2004. "Approximating the Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator when the Concentration Parameter is Small," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Paper 61, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    8. Blomquist, Soren & Dahlberg, Matz, 1999. "Small Sample Properties of LIML and Jackknife IV Estimators: Experiments with Weak Instruments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 69-88, Jan.-Feb.. [Downloadable!]
    9. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney Newey & Geert Ridder, 2006. "Mean-squared-error Calculations for Average Treatment Effects," IEPR Working Papers 06.57, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    11. John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Jeffreys Prior Analysis of the Simultaneous Equations Model in the Case with n+1 Endogenous Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1198, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. T. W. Anderson & Naoto Kunitomo & Yukitoshi Matsushita, 2008. "On Finite Sample Properties of Alternative Estimators of Coefficients in a Structural Equation with Many Instruments," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-577, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]

  12. Mariano, Roberto S, 1977. "Finite Sample Properties of Instrumental Variable Estimators of Structural Coefficients," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 487-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1982. "The Exact Distribution of LIML: I," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 658, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1982. "On the Exact Distribution of LIML (revised and extended, see CFDP 658)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 626, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    3. D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2004. "Approximating the Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator when the Concentration Parameter is Small," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]

  13. Mariano, Roberto S, 1973. "Approximations to the Distribution Functions of the Ordinary Least-Squares and Two-Stage Least-Squares Estimators in the Case of Two Included Endogenous Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 67-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. M. Dolores de Prada & Luis M. Borge, 1997. "Some methods for comparing first-order asymptotically equivalent estimators," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(3), pages 473-500, September. [Downloadable!]

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