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A linear demand system within a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equation framework

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Author Info
Arvid Raknerud, Terje Skjerpen and Anders Rygh Swensen () (Statistics Norway)

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Abstract

We consider a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equations framework for the linear Almost Ideal Demand system. The framework is applied to a consumer demand system covering nine non-durable commodities. We test for demand homogeneity within a specification where the static linear Almost Ideal Demand system is augmented by three stochastic trends and three stochastic seasonal variables. The homogeneity restriction is rejected for about half of the commodities and in the system as a whole using conventional significance levels. However, when comparing the out-of-sample predictions from a homogeneous and non-homogeneous model, we do not find that the non-homogenous model performs better than the homogeneous one. Moreover, the income and price elasticities calculated under homogeneity restrictions are all of the right sign and have reasonable magnitudes.

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 345.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:345

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Related research
Keywords: Consumer demand. Linear Almost Ideal Demand system. Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equations. Prediction.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Keuzenkamp, Hugo A. & Barten, Anton P., 1995. "Rejection without falsification on the history of testing the homogeneity condition in the theory of consumer demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 103-127, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Anderson, G J & Blundell, R W, 1982. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Dynamic Singular Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1559-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  4. Anderson, Gordon & Blundell, Richard, 1983. "Testing Restrictions in a Flexible Dynamic Demand System: An Application to Consumers' Expenditure in Canada," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(3), pages 397-410, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Anderson, G. J., 1980. "The structure of simultaneous equations estimators : A comment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 271-276, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chalfant, James A, 1987. "A Globally Flexible, Almost Ideal Demand System," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(2), pages 233-42, April.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Fanelli, L & Mazzocchi, M, 2002. "A Cointegrated VECM Demand System for Meat in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1593-1605, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  11. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. I. A. Moosa & J. L. Baxter, 2002. "Modelling the trend and seasonals within an AIDS model of the demand for alcoholic beverages in the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 95-106. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. HÃ¥vard Hungnes, 2008. "A Demand System for Input Factors when there are Technological Changes in Production," Discussion Papers 556, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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