IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v213y2020ics0360544220318910.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jasiński, Tomasz

Abstract

The paper presents a way of creating three new, innovative variables based on air temperature to be used in forecasts of electricity demand and prices. The forecasting methods developed so far, especially in the area of energy prices, either did not use temperature data or were based on data that had not undergone pre-processing, which made it difficult for the model to use their potential. Newly developed variables have a linear relationship with the demand for electricity. This paper describes in detail the procedure for determining the parameters of new variables using the electricity market in Poland (a country in Central Europe) as a case study. The proposed approach allows both to avoid data clustering into different seasons and to precisely determine the temperatures at which the nature of the dependence with the demand for electricity changes. The validity of the proposed new variables in prognostic models has been confirmed by their use in deep neural networks. The proposed approach allows reducing the sMAPE by up to 15.3%. The designed new explanatory variables can be used not only in models based on artificial intelligence tools, but also in other forecasting methods that allow the use of exogenous inputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasiński, Tomasz, 2020. "Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:213:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220318910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118784
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220318910
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118784?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
    2. Elamin, Niematallah & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting hourly electricity demand by SARIMAX with interactions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 257-268.
    3. Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
    4. Xiong, Heng & Mamon, Rogemar, 2019. "A higher-order Markov chain-modulated model for electricity spot-price dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 495-515.
    5. So-Kumneth Sim & Philipp Maass & Pedro G. Lind, 2018. "Wind Speed Modeling by Nested ARIMA Processes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Diongue, Abdou Kâ & Guégan, Dominique & Vignal, Bertrand, 2009. "Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 505-510, April.
    7. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    8. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    9. David Barbosa de Alencar & Carolina De Mattos Affonso & Roberto Célio Limão de Oliveira & Jorge Laureano Moya Rodríguez & Jandecy Cabral Leite & José Carlos Reston Filho, 2017. "Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.
    10. Hagfors, Lars Ivar & Bunn, Derek & Kristoffersen, Eline & Staver, Tiril Toftdahl & Westgaard, Sjur, 2016. "Modeling the UK electricity price distributions using quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 231-243.
    11. Pedro G. Lind & Luis Vera-Tudela & Matthias Wächter & Martin Kühn & Joachim Peinke, 2017. "Normal Behaviour Models for Wind Turbine Vibrations: Comparison of Neural Networks and a Stochastic Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    12. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling, 2015. "Electricity price forecasting with a BED (Bivariate EMD Denoising) methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 601-609.
    13. Galassi, Veronica & Madlener, Reinhard, 2018. "Shall I open the window? Policy implications of thermal-comfort adjustment practices in residential buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 518-527.
    14. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
    15. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1130-1164, December.
    16. Ghasemi, A. & Shayeghi, H. & Moradzadeh, M. & Nooshyar, M., 2016. "A novel hybrid algorithm for electricity price and load forecasting in smart grids with demand-side management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 40-59.
    17. Bordignon, Silvano & Bunn, Derek W. & Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2013. "Combining day-ahead forecasts for British electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 88-103.
    18. Gaillard, Pierre & Goude, Yannig & Nedellec, Raphaël, 2016. "Additive models and robust aggregation for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load and electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1038-1050.
    19. Yang, Wendong & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Du, Pei, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on a dual decomposition strategy and multi-objective optimization for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1205-1225.
    20. Keles, Dogan & Scelle, Jonathan & Paraschiv, Florentina & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-230.
    21. Liu, Heping & Shi, Jing, 2013. "Applying ARMA–GARCH approaches to forecasting short-term electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-166.
    22. José R. Andrade & Jorge Filipe & Marisa Reis & Ricardo J. Bessa, 2017. "Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-29, October.
    23. Wang, Deyun & Luo, Hongyuan & Grunder, Olivier & Lin, Yanbing & Guo, Haixiang, 2017. "Multi-step ahead electricity price forecasting using a hybrid model based on two-layer decomposition technique and BP neural network optimized by firefly algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 390-407.
    24. Gao, Ciwei & Bompard, Ettore & Napoli, Roberto & Cheng, Haozhong, 2007. "Price forecast in the competitive electricity market by support vector machine," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 98-113.
    25. Makridakis, Spyros, 1993. "Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 527-529, December.
    26. Rodríguez, Fermín & Fleetwood, Alice & Galarza, Ainhoa & Fontán, Luis, 2018. "Predicting solar energy generation through artificial neural networks using weather forecasts for microgrid control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 855-864.
    27. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
    28. Moral-Carcedo, Julián & Pérez-García, Julián, 2019. "Time of day effects of temperature and daylight on short term electricity load," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 169-183.
    29. Vitor V. Lopes & Teresa Scholz & Frank Raischel & Pedro G. Lind, 2014. "Principal wind turbines for a conditional portfolio approach to wind farms," Papers 1404.0375, arXiv.org.
    30. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    31. Hickey, Emily & Loomis, David G. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2012. "Forecasting hourly electricity prices using ARMAX–GARCH models: An application to MISO hubs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 307-315.
    32. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    33. Zhang, Xiaobo & Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Yuyang, 2019. "A hybrid short-term electricity price forecasting framework: Cuckoo search-based feature selection with singular spectrum analysis and SVM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 899-913.
    34. Peng, Lu & Liu, Shan & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2018. "Effective long short-term memory with differential evolution algorithm for electricity price prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1301-1314.
    35. Borovkova, Svetlana & Schmeck, Maren Diane, 2017. "Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 51-65.
    36. Kamal Chapagain & Somsak Kittipiyakul, 2018. "Performance Analysis of Short-Term Electricity Demand with Atmospheric Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, April.
    37. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2020. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptotics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 391-409, June.
    38. He, Kaijian & Xu, Yang & Zou, Yingchao & Tang, Ling, 2015. "Electricity price forecasts using a Curvelet denoising based approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 425(C), pages 1-9.
    39. Luo, Shuman & Weng, Yang, 2019. "A two-stage supervised learning approach for electricity price forecasting by leveraging different data sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1497-1512.
    40. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    41. Yang, Zhang & Ce, Li & Lian, Li, 2017. "Electricity price forecasting by a hybrid model, combining wavelet transform, ARMA and kernel-based extreme learning machine methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 291-305.
    42. Agrawal, Rahul Kumar & Muchahary, Frankle & Tripathi, Madan Mohan, 2019. "Ensemble of relevance vector machines and boosted trees for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 540-548.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    2. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2022. "A new approach to modeling cycles with summer and winter demand peaks as input variables for deep neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Kılıç Depren, Serpil & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Depren, Özer, 2022. "The role of data frequency and method selection in electricity price estimation: Comparative evidence from Turkey in pre-pandemic and pandemic periods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 217-225.
    4. Zheng, Kedi & Chen, Huiyao & Wang, Yi & Chen, Qixin, 2022. "Data-driven financial transmission right scenario generation and speculation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    5. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "GHTnet: Tri-Branch deep learning network for real-time electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiao, Weibiao & Yang, Zhe, 2020. "Forecast the electricity price of U.S. using a wavelet transform-based hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Prediction and explanation of the formation of the Spanish day-ahead electricity price through machine learning regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 610-625.
    3. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
    4. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    5. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2021. "Real-time electricity price forecasting of wind farms with deep neural network transfer learning and hybrid datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    6. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    7. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2020. "Performance of alternative electricity price forecasting methods: Findings from the Greek and Hungarian power exchanges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    8. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    9. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    10. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
    11. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    12. Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    13. Elmore, Clay T. & Dowling, Alexander W., 2021. "Learning spatiotemporal dynamics in wholesale energy markets with dynamic mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    14. Barja-Martinez, Sara & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Munné-Collado, Íngrid & Lloret-Gallego, Pau & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Villafafila-Robles, Roberto, 2021. "Artificial intelligence techniques for enabling Big Data services in distribution networks: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    16. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    17. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    18. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    19. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    20. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity price; Forecasting; Artificial neural network; Air temperature-based variable;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:213:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220318910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.