IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v190y2017icp291-305.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity price forecasting by a hybrid model, combining wavelet transform, ARMA and kernel-based extreme learning machine methods

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Zhang
  • Ce, Li
  • Lian, Li

Abstract

Electricity prices have rather complex features such as high volatility, high frequency, nonlinearity, mean reversion and non-stationarity that make forecasting very difficult. However, accurate electricity price forecasting is essential to market traders, retailers, and generation companies. To improve prediction accuracy using each model’s unique features, this paper proposes a hybrid approach that combines the wavelet transform, the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) based on self-adapting particle swarm optimization and an auto regressive moving average (ARMA). Self-adaptive particle swarm optimization (SAPSO) is adopted to search for the optimal kernel parameters of the KELM. After testing the wavelet decomposition components, stationary series as new input sets are predicted by the ARMA model and non-stationary series are predicted by the SAPSO-KELM model. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by using electricity price data from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM), Australian and Spanish markets. The experimental results show that the developed method has more accurate prediction, better generality and practicability than individual methods and other hybrid methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Zhang & Ce, Li & Lian, Li, 2017. "Electricity price forecasting by a hybrid model, combining wavelet transform, ARMA and kernel-based extreme learning machine methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 291-305.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:190:y:2017:i:c:p:291-305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916319134
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.130?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    2. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    3. Tan, Zhongfu & Zhang, Jinliang & Wang, Jianhui & Xu, Jun, 2010. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3606-3610, November.
    4. Lin, Whei-Min & Gow, Hong-Jey & Tsai, Ming-Tang, 2010. "An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3226-3234, October.
    5. Khosravi, Abbas & Nahavandi, Saeid & Creighton, Doug, 2013. "Quantifying uncertainties of neural network-based electricity price forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 120-129.
    6. Keles, Dogan & Scelle, Jonathan & Paraschiv, Florentina & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-230.
    7. Nguyen, Hang T. & Nabney, Ian T., 2010. "Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3674-3685.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    2. Jesus Lago & Fjo De Ridder & Peter Vrancx & Bart De Schutter, 2017. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: the importance of considering market integration," Papers 1708.07061, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    3. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    4. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    5. Heydari, Azim & Majidi Nezhad, Meysam & Pirshayan, Elmira & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Keynia, Farshid & De Santoli, Livio, 2020. "Short-term electricity price and load forecasting in isolated power grids based on composite neural network and gravitational search optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    6. Léonard Tschora & Erwan Pierre & Marc Plantevit & Céline Robardet, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Post-Print hal-03621974, HAL.
    7. Qiao, Weibiao & Yang, Zhe, 2020. "Forecast the electricity price of U.S. using a wavelet transform-based hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Peng, Lu & Liu, Shan & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2018. "Effective long short-term memory with differential evolution algorithm for electricity price prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1301-1314.
    9. Elmore, Clay T. & Dowling, Alexander W., 2021. "Learning spatiotemporal dynamics in wholesale energy markets with dynamic mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
    12. Simon Pezzutto & Gianluca Grilli & Stefano Zambotti & Stefan Dunjic, 2018. "Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    13. Bento, P.M.R. & Pombo, J.A.N. & Calado, M.R.A. & Mariano, S.J.P.S., 2018. "A bat optimized neural network and wavelet transform approach for short-term price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 88-97.
    14. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    15. Alexandre Lucas & Konstantinos Pegios & Evangelos Kotsakis & Dan Clarke, 2020. "Price Forecasting for the Balancing Energy Market Using Machine-Learning Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    17. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Prediction and explanation of the formation of the Spanish day-ahead electricity price through machine learning regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 610-625.
    18. Claudio Monteiro & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado, 2015. "Explanatory Information Analysis for Day-Ahead Price Forecasting in the Iberian Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-23, September.
    19. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    20. Ismael Ahrazem Dfuf & José Manuel Mira McWilliams & María Camino González Fernández, 2019. "Multi-Output Conditional Inference Trees Applied to the Electricity Market: Variable Importance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:190:y:2017:i:c:p:291-305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.