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The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations

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  • Jonsson, Thomas

    ()
    (National Institute of Economic Research)

  • Österholm, Pär

    ()
    (National Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Paper with number 121.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0121

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Keywords: Survey data;

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Cited by:
  1. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Policy Interest-Rate Expectations in Sweden: A Forecast Evaluation," Working Paper 127, National Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
  3. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 487-507.

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