The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations
AbstractIn this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Paper with number 121.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
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Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden
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Other versions of this item:
- Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2011. "The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 276-281.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-10-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2010-10-23 (Forecasting)
- NEP-LAB-2010-10-23 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-10-23 (Macroeconomics)
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- Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Policy Interest-Rate Expectations in Sweden: A Forecast Evaluation," Working Paper 127, National Institute of Economic Research.
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