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La importancia de la histéresis en las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países de la UEM

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Author Info

  • Ana Buisán

    (Banco de España)

  • Juan Carlos Caballero

    (Banco de España)

  • José Manuel Campa

    (Banco de España)

  • Noelia Jiménez

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

En este trabajo se pretende comprobar la posible existencia de histéresis en la oferta de exportaciones de manufacturas en algunos países de la zona del euro, es decir, se analiza si los movimientos transitorios del tipo de cambio tienen un impacto permanente sobre las exportaciones. La presencia de costes irrecuperables en la entrada y salida del mercado a los que se enfrentan los productores puede justificar la existencia de histéresis en el comercio, ya que las empresas exportadoras tomarían en consideración el tipo de cambio futuro como una variable adicional a la hora de decidir si se entra o no en el mercado, afectando de esta forma al volumen de exportación agregado. Así, el trabajo presenta una estimación de un modelo de oferta y demanda de exportaciones de manufacturas para la mayoría de los países de la zona euro, donde la oferta toma en cuenta la evolución futura del tipo de cambio a partir de la estimación secuencial de sus dos primeros momentos. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, el tipo de cambio esperado no es, en la mayor parte de los casos, una variable explicativa de la evolución de la oferta de exportaciones. De este modo, en contra de la evidencia disponible con datos de empresas, el análisis macroeconómico efectuado no detecta efectos de histéresis significativos en la oferta de exportaciones.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos in its journal Monetaria.

Volume (Year): XXVII (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (abril-junio)
Pages: 169-222

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Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxvii:y:2004:i:2:p:169-222

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Cited by:
  1. Angel de la Fuente & Juan Francisco Jimeno, 2004. "The private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 635.04, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  2. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "The fiscal theory of the price level: a narrow theory for non-fiat money," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0501, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0512, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Dolado, Juan J. & Jansen, Marcel & Jimeno, Juan F., 2005. "Dual Employment Protection Legislation: A Framework for Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1564, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Ana Del-Rí­o & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Bank of England working papers 263, Bank of England.
  6. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0527, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Do decreasing hazard functions for price changes make any sense?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0508, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.

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