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Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks

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Author Info
Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN
Wension Vincent, YAO

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Abstract

This papers develops a dynamic factor models with regime switching to account for the decreasing volatility of the U.S. economy observed since the mid-1980s. Apart from the Markov switching capturing the cyclical fluctuations, an additional type of regime switching is introduced to allow variances to switch between distinct regimes. The resulting four-regime models extend univariate analysis currently used in the literature on the structural break in conditional volatility to the multivariate time series. Besides the dynamic factor model using the data with a single (monthly) frequency, we employ the additonal information incorporating the mixed-frequency data, which include not only the monthly component series but also such an important quarterly series as the real GDP. The evaluation of six different nonlinear models suggests that the probabilities derived from all the models comply with NBER business cycle dating and detect a one-time shifting from high variance to low-variance states in February 1984. In addition, we find that: mixed-frequency models outperform single-frequency models; restricted models outperform unrestricted models; four-regime switching models outperform two-regime switching models.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper with number 2004024.

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Date of creation: 15 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2004024

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Related research
Keywords: Volatility Structural break Composite coincident indicator Dynamic factor model Markov switching Mixed-frequency data

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
    Other versions:
  4. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 135-174. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Least squares estimation and tests of breaks in mean and variance under misspecification," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 32-54, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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