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What Drives Short Rate Dynamics? A Functional Gradient Descent Approach

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  • Francesco Audrino

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 315-335

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:39:y:2012:i:3:p:315-335

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Related research

Keywords: Functional gradient descent; Short rate process; Macroeconomic variables; Time-varying drift and volatility dynamics; C14; C52; E43; E44; E47;

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References

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  1. Fabio Trojani, 2007. "Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(4), pages 591-623, Fall.
  2. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2010. "Modeling and Forecasting Short-term Interest Rates: The Benefits of Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging," Textos para discussão 570, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  5. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  7. Ravi Bansal & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2004. "Regime Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 396-409, October.
  8. Stanton, Richard, 1997. " A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
  9. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
  10. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2001. "Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Sam, Abdoul G. & Jiang, George J., 2009. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Short Rate Diffusion Process from a Panel of Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(05), pages 1197-1230, October.
  12. Francesco Audrino & Enrico De Giorgi, . "Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve," IEW - Working Papers 244, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  13. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong, 2005. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," 2005 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
  15. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  16. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  17. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02.
  18. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
  19. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
  20. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "Tree-Structured Multiple Regimes in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 338-353, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.

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