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Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve

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  • Francesco Audrino
  • Enrico De Giorgi

Abstract

We propose an a±ne term structure model which accommodates non-linearities in the drift and volatility function of the short-term interest rate. Such non-linearities are a consequence of discrete beta-distributed regime shifts constructed on multiple thresholds. We derive iterative closed-form formula for the whole yield curve dynamics that can be estimated using a linearized Kalman filter. Fitting the model on US data, we collect empirical evidence of its potential in estimating conditional volatility and correlation across yields.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 244.

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Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:244

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Keywords: Threshold Regime Switching Model; A±ne Model; Term Structure of Interest Rate; Linearized Kalman Filter;

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References

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  1. René Garcia & Pierre Perron, 1995. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-05, CIRANO.
  2. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  5. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," NBER Working Papers 5345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
  8. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "Tree-Structured Multiple Regimes in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 338-353, July.
  9. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
  2. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting short‐term interest rates: The benefits of smooth regimes, macroeconomic variables, and bagging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 999-1022, 09.
  3. Francesco Audrino, 2012. "What Drives Short Rate Dynamics? A Functional Gradient Descent Approach," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 315-335, March.
  4. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008. "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  5. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.

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