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Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models

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Author Info
Pritsker, Matt
Abstract

I study the finite sample distribution of one of Ait-Sahalia's (1996c) nonparametric tests of continuous-time models of the short-term riskless rate. The test rejects true models too often because interest rate data are highly persistent but the asymptotic distribution of the test (and of the kernel density estimator on which the test is based) treats the data as if it were independently and identically distributed. To attain the accuracy of the kernel density estimator implied by its asymptotic distribution with 22 years of data generated from the Vasicek model in fact requires 2755 years of data. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 11 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 449-87
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:11:y:1998:i:3:p:449-87

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  1. M. Sköld, 2001. "The Asymptotic Variance of the Continuous-Time Kernel Estimator with Applications to Bandwidth Selection," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 99-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Seeing the wood for the trees: A critical evaluation of methods to estimate the parameters of stochastic differential equations," Stan Hurn Discussion Papers 2006, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hao Zhou, 2001. "Jump-diffusion term structure and Ito conditional moment generator," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations. Working paper #2," NCER Working Paper Series 2, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Federico Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2000. "Accelerated Asymptotics for Diffusion Model Estimation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1656, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2005. "A Simple Approach to the Parametric Estimation of Potentially Nonstationary Diffusions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1522, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jun Yu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models of the Short Term Interest Rate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1309, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fuchun Li, 2005. "Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process," Working Papers 05-35, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hao Zhou, 2003. "Itô conditional moment generator and the estimation of short rate processes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Javier Gil-Bazo & Gonzalo Rubio, 2003. "A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure," DFAEII Working Papers 200201, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  12. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2001. "Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Veronika Czellar & G. Andrew Karolyi & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2005. "Indirect Robust Estimation of the Short-term Interest Rate Process;," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2005.02, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Alfred Haug & Pierre Siklos, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1276-1276. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Roberto Reno', 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Diffusion Coefficient via Fourier Analysis, with Aplication to Short Rate Modeling," Department of Economics University of Siena 440, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  16. Roberto Reno' & Antonio Roma & Stephen Schaefer, 2004. "A Comparison of Alternative Nonparametric Estimators of the Short Rate Diffusion Coefficient," Department of Economics University of Siena 445, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  17. Christopher T. Downing, 1999. "Nonparametric Estimation of Multifactor Continuous Time Interest-Rate Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 111, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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