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Forecasting a Large Dimensional Covariance Matrix of a Portfolio of Different Asset Classes

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Author Info
Lillie Lam (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
Laurence Fung (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
Ip-wing Yu (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
Abstract

In portfolio and risk management, estimating and forecasting the volatilities and correlations of asset returns plays an important role. Recently, interest in the estimation of the covariance matrix of large dimensional portfolios has increased. Using a portfolio of 63 assets covering stocks, bonds and currencies, this paper aims to examine and compare the predictive power of different popular methods adopted by i) market practitioners (such as the sample covariance, the 250-day moving average, and the exponentially weighted moving average); ii) some sophisticated estimators recently developed in the academic literature (such as the orthogonal GARCH model and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model); and iii) their combinations. Based on five different criteria, we show that a combined forecast of the 250-day moving average, the exponentially weighted moving average and the orthogonal GARCH model consistently outperforms the other methods in predicting the covariance matrix for both one-quarter and one-year ahead horizons.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0901.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0901

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Related research
Keywords: Volatility forecasting; Risk management; Portfolio management; Model evaluation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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  1. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2008. "Realized volatility," Working Paper Series WP-08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin (Ginger) Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/04, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  4. Valeri Voev, 2007. "Dynamic Modeling of Large Dimensional Covariance Matrices," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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