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Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds

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  • Hankyeung Choi
  • David J. Leatham
  • Kunlapath Sukcharoen

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  • Hankyeung Choi & David J. Leatham & Kunlapath Sukcharoen, 2015. "Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(1), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wyz:journl:id:385
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    1. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-705, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "A Cointegration Analysis of Petroleum Futures Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 5, pages 46-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Murat, Atilim & Tokat, Ekin, 2009. "Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-90, January.
    6. Lean, Hooi Hooi & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 979-986, September.
    7. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    8. Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
    9. Cindy W. Ma, 1989. "Forecasting efficiency of energy futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(5), pages 393-419, October.
    10. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    11. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
    15. Ahmet E. Kocagil, 2004. "Optionality and Daily Dynamics of Convenience Yield Behavior: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 143-158, March.
    16. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    17. Philip K Verleger, 2011. "The Margin, Currency, and the Price of Oil," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 71-82, April.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    19. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    21. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & Giovannini, Massimo, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 831-848, November.
    22. Robert Heinkel & Maureen E. Howe & John S. Hughes, 1990. "Commodity convenience yields as an option profit," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(5), pages 519-533, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Caner Ozdurak & Veysel Ulusoy, 2020. "Price Discovery in Crude Oil Markets: Intraday Volatility Interactions between Crude Oil Futures and Energy Exchange Traded Funds," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 402-413.
    2. Anton Lisin & Tomonobu Senjyu, 2021. "Renewable Energy Transition: Evidence from Spillover Effects in Exchange-Traded Funds," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 184-190.

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