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Monitoring unit root and multiple structural changes: An information criterion approach

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  • Fukuda, Kosei

Abstract

An information criterion-based model selection method is proposed for monitoring unit root and multiple structural changes. In this method, a battery of possible models is considered by changing the integration order (I(0) or I(1)) and the combinations of change points. Next, the best model is selected from among alternative models via a modified Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Accordingly, on the basis of the selected model, the process that generates the observed time series is determined. The BIC is modified in order to adjust the frequency count of incorrectly selecting stationary models via the conventional BIC. The simulation results of monitoring unit root and structural change suggest that the proposed method outperforms the conventional hypothesis testing method in terms of detection accuracy and detection speed. Furthermore, the empirical results suggest that the proposed method exhibits better performances with regard to detection stability and forecastability.

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  • Fukuda, Kosei, 2006. "Monitoring unit root and multiple structural changes: An information criterion approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 121-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:71:y:2006:i:2:p:121-130
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2006.01.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhanshou Chen & Yanting Xiao & Fuxiao Li, 2021. "Monitoring memory parameter change-points in long-memory time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2365-2389, May.
    2. Chen, Zhanshou & Tian, Zheng, 2010. "Modified procedures for change point monitoring in linear models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 62-75.
    3. Chen, Zhanshou & Tian, Zheng & Wei, Yuesong, 2010. "Monitoring change in persistence in linear time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(19-20), pages 1520-1527, October.

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