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Informed Trading in the Euro Money Market for Term Lending

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  • Paolo Zagaglia

    ()
    ( Sveriges Riksbank (Modelling Division); Università di Bologna (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche); Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

Abstract

I address the role of information heterogeneity in the Euro interbank market for unsecured term lending. I use high-frequency quotes of bid and ask prices to estimate probabilities of informed trading for contract maturities from one month to one year. The dataset spans from November 2000 to March 2008, and includes the relevant events that characterize the developments of the Euro area money market. I obtain four main results. First, I show that the loose supply of liquidity of the ECB has not dampened the distortions arising from asymmetric information in the unsecured money market. I also find that the probability of trading with a better informed bank is higher on days when open market operations take place, and at the end of the maintenance period. This effect has strengthened during the turmoil. The results indicate that information is segmented, in the sense that heterogenous knowledge among banks is maturity-specific. Finally, the paper presents some evidence suggesting that the risk of trading with a counterparty that enjoys an enhanced information set is priced.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 02_10.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:02_10

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Related research

Keywords: Market microstructure; PIN model; money markets; term structure;

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References

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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  2. Bierens, H.J., 1995. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Discussion Paper 1995-123, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2008. "The Intraday Price of Money: Evidence from the e-MID Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1533-1540, October.
  4. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  5. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
  6. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  7. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2008. "The interday and intraday patterns of the overnight market: evidence from an electronic platform," Working Paper Series 0988, European Central Bank.
  8. Alain Durré & Stefano Nardelli, 2008. "Volatility in the Euro area money market: effects from the monetary policy operational framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 307-322.
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Cited by:
  1. C. Liberati & M. Marzo & P. Zagaglia & P. Zappa, 2012. "Structural distortions in the Euro interbank market: The role of ‘key players’ during the recent market turmoil," Working Papers wp841, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

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