This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Leo Krippner () (AMP Capital Investors)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This article derives a generic, intertemporally-consistent, and arbitrage-free version of the popular class of yield curve models originally introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987). The derived model has a theoretical foundation (conferred via the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework) that allows it to be used in applications that involve an implicit or explicit time-series context. As an example of the potentialapplication of the model, the intertemporal consistency is exploited to derive a theoretical time-series process that may be used to forecast the yield curve. The empirical application of the forecasting framework to United States data results in out-of-sample forecasts that outperform the random walk over a sample period of almost 50 years, for forecast horizons ranging from six months to three years.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/0501.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 05/01.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 31 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:05/01

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand
Phone: 64 7 838 4045 (Administrator)
Fax: 64 7 838 4331
Web page: http://www.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/econ
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Brian Silverstone).

Related research
Keywords: yield curve; term structure of interest rates; Nelson and Siegel model; Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fang, Victor & Muljono, Ronny, 2003. "An empirical analysis of the Australian dollar swap spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 153-173, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Francis X. Diebold, & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/31, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Soto, Gloria M., 2001. "Immunization derived from a polynomial duration vector in the Spanish bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1037-1057, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Seppälä, Juha & Viertiö, Petri, 1996. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Estimation and Interpretation," Research Discussion Papers 19/1996, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. James M. Steeley, 2004. "Estimating time-varying risk premia in UK long-term government bonds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 367-373, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonomalised Laguerre Polynomials: An Intertemporally Consistent Approach with an Economic Interpretation," Working Papers in Economics 03/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jordan, James V. & Mansi, Sattar A., 2003. "Term structure estimation from on-the-run Treasuries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1487-1509, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bent Jesper Christensen & Tomas Björk, . "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Management Working Papers 1999-4, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonormalised Laguerre Polynomials: A Consistent Cross-Sectional and Inter-Temporal Approach," Working Papers in Economics 03/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Ben Hunt, 1995. "Fitting Parsimonious Yield Curve Models to Australian Coupon Bond Data," Working Paper Series 51, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  16. Dahlquist, Magnus & Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. " Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 98(2), pages 163-83, June.
  17. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  19. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Backus, David & Foresi, Silverio & Zin, Stanley, 1998. "Arbitrage Opportunities in Arbitrage-Free Models of Bond Pricing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 13-26, January.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Attributing Returns and Optimising United States Swaps Portfolios Using an Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Model of the Yield Curve," Working Papers in Economics 05/03, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Use the JEL tree to browse through the database by subfields.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-31.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.